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Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

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Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#21

Post by garmaine »

justboxing wrote: post #5

AMZN, the stock, is trading at a P.E. Ratio of nearly 300. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMZN Serious question: Considering that it nearly doubled over the past year, is it already too late to buy Amazon stock? Or not? What's the upside?

P/E is not a meaningful metric. The 10x rule of thumb doesn’t work for all companies. For one, not all companies have the same level of infrastructure—Amazon has a lot of warehouse and distribution infrastructure, not to mention all those AWS servers they own, etc. you should properly subtract that out before doing the calculation.

Even still Amazon has a crazy high valuation, just not insanely high. Not sure I’d bet against it though.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#23

Post by IkmoIkmo »

justboxing wrote: post #5

AMZN, the stock, is trading at a P.E. Ratio of nearly 300. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMZN Serious question: Considering that it nearly doubled over the past year, is it already too late to buy Amazon stock? Or not? What's the upside?

Asking whether it's too late to buy I think makes no sense... if it were, immediately market forces would drive up the price. If it were too soon, immediately market forces would sell.

You can ask anyone, any individual, of course and they'll have a particular answer which will differ. But I wouldn't be quick to trust a particular answer over the answer of the market (which IS the stock price), unless the particular answer is from a particular person, like a buffett, a domain expert or an alien from the future or someone with insider knowledge.

At least, that's the theory haha. I know it's a shitty answer.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#24

Post by JAFTEM »

Bezos is an advocate for basic income, but I question his motives. Is it because he is genuinely concerned for others and society, or does he want to avoid the pitchforks at his doorstep when Amazon gets blamed for mass unemployment? Coupled with the fact that he's the richest man on earth, it's very apparent he will have a target on his back if he doesn't already.

Maybe his motives don't matter. Maybe we just need to focus on getting basic income as jobs are wiped away by Big N.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#25

Post by hidenotslide »

garmaine wrote: post #21
justboxing wrote: post #5

AMZN, the stock, is trading at a P.E. Ratio of nearly 300. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMZN Serious question: Considering that it nearly doubled over the past year, is it already too late to buy Amazon stock? Or not? What's the upside?

P/E is not a meaningful metric. The 10x rule of thumb doesn’t work for all companies. For one, not all companies have the same level of infrastructure—Amazon has a lot of warehouse and distribution infrastructure, not to mention all those AWS servers they own, etc. you should properly subtract that out before doing the calculation. Even still Amazon has a crazy high valuation, just not insanely high. Not sure I’d bet…

P/E is a very meaningful metric. It's not that Amazon has infrastructure that matters, it's that they are reinvesting their earnings at a higher rate than other companies. If they returned capital to investors because they didn't have enough potential projects, then the investors would need to decide how to reinvest it.

Your comment about reflecting the infrastructure in valuation would lean toward looking at Price/Book Value instead. Amazon would look quite expensive on this measure as well.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#26

Post by alexasmyths »

garmaine wrote: post #21
justboxing wrote: post #5

AMZN, the stock, is trading at a P.E. Ratio of nearly 300. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMZN Serious question: Considering that it nearly doubled over the past year, is it already too late to buy Amazon stock? Or not? What's the upside?

P/E is not a meaningful metric. The 10x rule of thumb doesn’t work for all companies. For one, not all companies have the same level of infrastructure—Amazon has a lot of warehouse and distribution infrastructure, not to mention all those AWS servers they own, etc. you should properly subtract that out before doing the calculation. Even still Amazon has a crazy high valuation, just not insanely high. Not sure I’d bet…

It would take way more than 300 years of profits at the current level to justify the stock price.

That's crazy high.

Even if AMZN could 10x their earnings overnight by stopping expansion or something, they'd still have a 30x - meaning way more than 30 years of future profits at this level.

Either that, or they'd still have to grow that much.

Stocks are in a clear bubble. Snap, AMZN, Tesla, and also BTC are stupid, and the world economy needs a correction just to remind people to do their homework.

And it's pretty rational to ask if there is much upside to Amazon - because there's a whole lot of downside risk now as well if financial markets decide that 300 is a 'dumb' multiple.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#27

Post by garmaine »

hidenotslide wrote: post #25
garmaine wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

P/E is not a meaningful metric. The 10x rule of thumb doesn’t work for all companies. For one, not all companies have the same level of infrastructure—Amazon has a lot of warehouse and distribution infrastructure, not to mention all those AWS servers they own, etc. you should properly subtract that out before doing the calculation. Even still Amazon has a crazy high valuation, just not insanely high. Not sure I’d bet…

P/E is a very meaningful metric. It's not that Amazon has infrastructure that matters, it's that they are reinvesting their earnings at a higher rate than other companies. If they returned capital to investors because they didn't have enough potential projects, then the investors would need to decide how to reinvest it. Your comment about reflecting the infrastructure in valuation would lean toward looking at Price/B…

My “not meaningful” point should perhaps been “can’t conclusively draw data from it alone” or “don’t make investment decisions based on this metric only” and I’d stand by that.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#28

Post by QAPereo »

JAFTEM wrote: post #24

Bezos is an advocate for basic income, but I question his motives. Is it because he is genuinely concerned for others and society, or does he want to avoid the pitchforks at his doorstep when Amazon gets blamed for mass unemployment? Coupled with the fact that he's the richest man on earth, it's very apparent he will have a target on his back if he doesn't already. Maybe his motives don't matter. Maybe we just need t…

Realistically, BI won’t save him, or his progeny when/if it comes down to “pitchforks” any more than the French aristocracy could throw potatoes at starving peasants and hope to live. I can’t imagine how much good someone would have to do to justify concentrating a hundred thousand million dollars in their person. When so much of that probably wasn’t fairly subjected to taxation... well... maybe he deserves some “pitchforks” at his door, or st least some angry government accountants and lawyers.

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#29

Post by nazz »

JAFTEM wrote: post #24

Bezos is an advocate for basic income, but I question his motives. Is it because he is genuinely concerned for others and society, or does he want to avoid the pitchforks at his doorstep when Amazon gets blamed for mass unemployment? Coupled with the fact that he's the richest man on earth, it's very apparent he will have a target on his back if he doesn't already. Maybe his motives don't matter. Maybe we just need t…

What is big N?

Re: Jeff Bezos's Net Worth Just Broke $100B

#30

Post by thesagan »

protomok wrote: post #13
tzm wrote: post #2

> Bill Gates was last person to attain 12-figure fortune in 1999 $100B nearly 20 years ago, just before the federal antitrust case decision against Microsoft. Makes me wonder how much concentration of wealth would occur if regulation was not in place.

Bill Gates has also given a lot to charity, from the article - 'Gates, 62, who has a net worth of $86.8 billion according to the Bloomberg index, would be worth more than $150 billion if he hadn’t given away almost 700 million Microsoft Corp. shares and $2.9 billion of cash and other assets to charity, according to an analysis of his publicly disclosed giving since 1996.'

Charities that may not have been as necessary under a less concentrated wealth scenario. And he still gets to call the shots with a charity.
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