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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#101

Post by DanBC »

turc1656 wrote: post #48
nesyt wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you against this? Flexible working hours that can bend to accommodate very malleable human lives seems better than rigid adherence to traditional schedules for the sake of it.

I imagine what dionidium is getting at is the lack of good, reasonable cause to either not show up or be late. For example, I'm fortunate enough to have a high paying job in the finance industry and our office/company is pretty laid back and very good about the work/life balance thing. But managers here would react in two different ways to people being out late drinking and oversleeping vs. there being a massive acci…

> The younger crowd seems to be largely detached from the idea of responsibility that was drilled into previous generations.

Previous generations had jobs for life. For a while now many companies have proved they don't care about the staff, and so it's not particularly surprising that staff don't care about the work.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#102

Post by sailfast »

neves wrote: post #33

The article says no, but are there any dissented view that sees a causation between Trump policies and the rise in blue collar wages? Please, polite answers only. I'm just a foreigner that want to understand a little more.

Not a "dissenter" per se, just a rational human trying to draw connections:

In service positions, I could see a rise in wages attributed to those jobs that might have previously been filled with migrants.

I might see legal immigration also being discouraged, but to be honest that includes tourism from abroad which is shrinking and potentially having a negative impact on the service sector.

The only direct _policy_ link I can see is not a policy but rather a "business friendly" climate that might lead companies to start to invest more, understanding that they probably won't be taxed or regulated more heavily in the next 3 years.

That, plus cheap credit (a big overheat risk IMO) means opportunities for growth.

In terms of actual policy, I'd say not much has happened but rather the economy is now recovering from the housing crisis and growth has picked up again across the board. This was occurring before Trump, and will continue until another systemic issue occurs and people panic I'd imagine.

That said, in my opinion, Presidents rarely have much to do with economic outcomes except to either inject risk / instability with policy initiatives or pronouncements. Some big policies have costs, but most of the day to day impacts are quite spread out. There has been no action yet on health care or taxes that would influence employer direct costs. Perhaps some regulation has not been implemented and some executive orders rolled back, but nothing that would impact markets.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#103

Post by DavidWoof »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #68
turc1656 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine what dionidium is getting at is the lack of good, reasonable cause to either not show up or be late. For example, I'm fortunate enough to have a high paying job in the finance industry and our office/company is pretty laid back and very good about the work/life balance thing. But managers here would react in two different ways to people being out late drinking and oversleeping vs. there being a massive acci…

> The younger crowd seems to be largely detached from the idea of responsibility that was drilled into previous generations. My father graduated college making $42k/yr. Inflation adjusted, that was about $60k/yr in today's dollars. I just graduated, have experience in the field, and am getting a salary of $35k/yr in today's dollars. Meanwhile, upper management is getting millions. In that kind of work environment, wh…

I'm always kind of fascinated by posts like this on this site. Could I ask what field you're in that pays 35k/yr, apparently in the US, is in the field of your degree, and yet is somewhat related to Hacker News? Or are you not in tech at all and this site is an outside interest? Or maybe you're just in a rural area?

I don't mean this to sound challenging out all, I'm just kind of curious.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#104

Post by megaman22 »

dionidium wrote: post #39
Y7ZCQtNo39 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe there are some engagement issues? Do people feel connected to the work and to their peers? I've observed increases in this type of behavior when things aren't going so well. When people feel like they are shipping software that makes a difference, they want to be there. If it's only this individual, then it probably speaks more to their behavior than anything systemic. But if it is others too, I would look more…

Setting aside my particular company, your response is just more evidence of the culture change I'm talking about. Not every job is going to engage you or enable you to make the kind of difference you want to make in the world. The notion that this is a valid excuse for telling your boss, "hey, pops, I'm not feeling engaged this morning, gonna be in later" is a new one . Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe not. But it's…

If I'm cutting pulpwood or stacking boxes in a warehouse, it doesn't really matter whether my brain is engaged or not; it's mechanical labor and damn near mindless anyway[1]. But if I'm writing code and solving problems, and my brain isn't in gear, I can come sit at the desk for eight hours, but I'm not going to get anything accomplished, except building resentment for having to sit there at the desk for eight hours and look busy.

[1] Perversely, I miss burning wood; as a kid I cursed the woodpile, but its good exercise and you can get a lot of thinking done while you do it.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#105

Post by ryanmarsh »

rainbowmverse wrote: post #95
danielvf wrote: post #9

I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently. Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of sho…

It's almost as if extended poverty has ruined people's ability to function in a job market that wasn't there for them sooner. Poverty is called a trap for a reason. It's a self-reinforcing cycle as much as it's an income bracket.

My father used to say, "doing nothing is a poison". I think he might be right.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#106

Post by maccard »

throwawayjava wrote: post #37
danielvf wrote: post #9

I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently. Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of sho…

> Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary. > Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. So don't give drug tests? > Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at a…

> I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary.

I'm not sure exactly what industry the original poster was referring to, but broadly my experience has been that there are many people who are just unreliable. I worked in retail a few years ago, and it was incredible. People just don't show up, or show up so intoxicated from the night before that they're not actually capable of doing their job.

Now, as a developer, I think I can count on one hand the number of times someone has shown up too hungover to work, and I can tell you exactly (0) the number of times someone has just flat out failed to show up when they were supposed to be working.

> So don't give drug tests?

For lots of jobs that may not be an option. Operating heavy machinery puts lots of lives at risk, or it could be an insurance requirement.

> Try paying more?

Again, people are flaky. Suddenly paying someone more isn't going to make them start showing up on time.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#107

Post by hyperion2010 »

I had a long talk with a guy getting his general contractor's license yesterday. He told me that down in San Diego they are continually short on construction workers, so much that one of his friends said that there is 10 years worth of construction that needs to be done and no one to do it. Wages at ~$45/hr, and probably rising, some projects paying perdiems for commutes from Orange County.

Strange.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#108

Post by ransom1538 »

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)"

Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not messing around -- most saw 2008. They drive nice trucks, own their company, have rude secretaries and wont look at your email until feb 18 (fingers crossed). Look at a blue collar guys' current circumstance: no competition (know anyone learning HVAC?), a HUGE housing boom in cali, pass through low tax income, 2k homes burned (wtf), no outsourcing (try outsourcing a plumber) -- as my mentor said: "Harvest time".

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#109

Post by throwawayjava »

killjoywashere wrote: post #90
throwawayjava wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fail drug test != show up to work high.

Past performance != future performance But it's the best signal we've got. Ignore it at your peril. Perhaps you are too young or live in too modern a world to understand how dangerous rare events are. Constructive paranoia has helped select evolutionary survivors for a very long time. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/science/jared-diamonds-gui...

> But it's the best signal we've got

Except that's not true. We can actually test for sobriety. And by doing drug testing instead, we're actually using a worse signal in place of a better signal!

See e.g., http://www.predictivesafety.com/news/2017/2/6/the-advantages...

> Perhaps you are too young or live in too modern a world to understand how dangerous rare events are. Constructive paranoia has helped select evolutionary survivors for a very long time.

I'm not really sure if there's more than a vague analogy connecting Diamond's hypotheses to drug testing policy. And I don't find that exceptionally vague analogy to be compelling evidence. (And I'm one of those people who doesn't even buy a lot of Diamond's work anyways; in fact, I think I'm in good company on this one among the sober, grown-up anthropologists out there...)

My weathered experience tells me to prefer hard data over vague analogies to pop science writers who are themselves known more for their well-written vague analogies than their well-researched hard science :-)

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#110

Post by darpa_escapee »

logfromblammo wrote: post #78
bkohlmann wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about manufacturing jobs is that they often involve operating heavy machinery. Drug use and intoxication drastically increases the chance of death or dismemberment - for the inebriated, or often, others around them. As a pilot, I seriously don’t care if you show up to work high or not - unless you’re doing maintenance on the jet I’m supposed to fly.

Why not just give an automated field-sobriety test for alertness, judgment, and reflexes at the start of each shift? Pass the test, and you can clock in and get to work. Fail the test, hit the nap room (unpaid) for a while, and try again when you wake up. It would catch people who are drunk, high, having a stroke, or just sleepy, rather than just the guy who used cannabis two weekends ago and is perfectly capable of…

Field sobriety tests are like polygraph tests: highly subjective, easily influenced by bias and have little to no scientific backing.
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