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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#81

Post by hiram112 »

stemc43 wrote: post #46
xefer wrote: post #16

Since this article focuses on the U.S., how much of this is related to the slowdown in illegal immigration?

there is an SSN work-authorization test one has to pass when applying for most jobs. No SSN or SSN not authorized for work (all temp|visitor visas) - gtfo. Source - been there done that.

Really?

The whole immigrant debate is so political now, it's hard to find any trustful source, including the stats put out by USCIS , DOJ, etc.

So if you want to know how the SSN game works for illegal immigrants, find some media who wants to paint it in a positive light, even if they have to admit that millions of workers use fake SSNs: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocum...

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#82

Post by ransom1538 »

Y7ZCQtNo39 wrote: post #21
danielvf wrote: post #9

I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently. Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of sho…

Pretty sure half of my office at my white collar job wouldn't show up if they started drug testing. But I imagine if we interviewed 20 people for a position, we would most certainly not have 18 no-shows.

Yes. However, you don't worth with concrete cutters or 1k volt lines.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#83

Post by killjoywashere »

logfromblammo wrote: post #78
bkohlmann wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about manufacturing jobs is that they often involve operating heavy machinery. Drug use and intoxication drastically increases the chance of death or dismemberment - for the inebriated, or often, others around them. As a pilot, I seriously don’t care if you show up to work high or not - unless you’re doing maintenance on the jet I’m supposed to fly.

Why not just give an automated field-sobriety test for alertness, judgment, and reflexes at the start of each shift? Pass the test, and you can clock in and get to work. Fail the test, hit the nap room (unpaid) for a while, and try again when you wake up. It would catch people who are drunk, high, having a stroke, or just sleepy, rather than just the guy who used cannabis two weekends ago and is perfectly capable of…

> Why not just give an automated field-sobriety test

Because they are famous for low specificity and low sensitivity.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#84

Post by dagw »

logfromblammo wrote: post #78
bkohlmann wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about manufacturing jobs is that they often involve operating heavy machinery. Drug use and intoxication drastically increases the chance of death or dismemberment - for the inebriated, or often, others around them. As a pilot, I seriously don’t care if you show up to work high or not - unless you’re doing maintenance on the jet I’m supposed to fly.

Why not just give an automated field-sobriety test for alertness, judgment, and reflexes at the start of each shift? Pass the test, and you can clock in and get to work. Fail the test, hit the nap room (unpaid) for a while, and try again when you wake up. It would catch people who are drunk, high, having a stroke, or just sleepy, rather than just the guy who used cannabis two weekends ago and is perfectly capable of…

Why not just give an automated field-sobriety test

Does such a thing exist? Is there any independent evidence that it actually works?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#85

Post by toyg »

Y7ZCQtNo39 wrote: post #65
dionidium wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Setting aside my particular company, your response is just more evidence of the culture change I'm talking about. Not every job is going to engage you or enable you to make the kind of difference you want to make in the world. The notion that this is a valid excuse for telling your boss, "hey, pops, I'm not feeling engaged this morning, gonna be in later" is a new one . Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe not. But it's…

I think there is some truth to what we're both saying. At my particular company, the koolaid has always been about how innovate and exciting the work is. But you get in and spend a lot of your time fixing bugs and working on old, monolithic codebases. People want to make a difference, employers sell the vision, and then there's this mis-match and you have the disengaged worker. I think the problem is the reality that…

> the reality that most software jobs need skilled workers

It's not just skill, it's also a level of creativity that one needs to do things like programming. And that creativity is often absent when the work is too boring.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#86

Post by bluedino »

danielvf wrote: post #25
xefer wrote: post #16

Since this article focuses on the U.S., how much of this is related to the slowdown in illegal immigration?

Probably none [edit: in manufacturing]. Most illegal immigrants don’t work manufacturing. The three most common jobs for illegals around here are construction, yardcare, and building cleaning via nested subcontractors. Manufactures have hard assets they could loose. Sketchy subcontractors can just disappear and rename. The growth is from the demand side - people are buying more right now.

You forgot about food production - both farming and things like meat packing or food manufacturing

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#87

Post by throwawayjava »

alextheparrot wrote: post #55
PeterisP wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the business model there? If the job would take a plumber 30 minutes, it'll take me an hour - so instead of paying a plumber for 30 minutes of work, I'd need to pay him for an hour of supervision; so I'd be paying more for the privilege of doing it myself.

Presumably a single plumber could handle multiple clients, plus you are already paying for his commute, which you probably don’t need to do (in your own house)

I could see some combo of youtube, tool rental, and a live helpline with trained blue collar workers as a fallback.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#88

Post by eric_h »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #42
throwawayjava wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary. > Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. So don't give drug tests? > Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at a…

> So don't give drug tests? While I agree that drug tests are a scam as a white collar worker, I do think they're necessary from a liability perspective if you're in construction, manufacturing, or driving a company vehicle. I fully support the use of recreational drugs on someone's own time, but you have to weed out (forgive the pun) those who are under the influence when loss of life or limb is a risk.

I would be okay with drug tests that didn't fail you for weed. That can show up on a test weeks after it's been consumed. The drugs that would actually significantly impair you (alcohol, opiates) clear out of your system in hours/days.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#89

Post by alexanderstears »

turc1656 wrote: post #48
nesyt wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you against this? Flexible working hours that can bend to accommodate very malleable human lives seems better than rigid adherence to traditional schedules for the sake of it.

I imagine what dionidium is getting at is the lack of good, reasonable cause to either not show up or be late. For example, I'm fortunate enough to have a high paying job in the finance industry and our office/company is pretty laid back and very good about the work/life balance thing. But managers here would react in two different ways to people being out late drinking and oversleeping vs. there being a massive acci…

It's another case of "if you want something, you have to pay for it".

The senior executives at my company are very responsible people, however, how could they be irresponsible? They make millions/yr, they have secretaries, and they a lot of autonomy in deciding how they should be judged. It'd be unusual for someone to be irresponsible in those conditions.

Meanwhile, worker bees balance sick kids, uncooperative coworkers, shifting priorities/deadlines, and taking the time to be price-conscious because they can't really afford to waste money. Is it any surprise that sometimes things fall through the cracks?

Sure, there are people who turn up on a tuesday and that's ill-advised. But presumably they're an at-will employee. If it's a problem, replace them with someone better. IF you can't find someone better at the same price, that's your sign that you're not paying enough for what you want. If you like the person, make the investment in their responsibility.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#90

Post by killjoywashere »

throwawayjava wrote: post #54
bkohlmann wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about manufacturing jobs is that they often involve operating heavy machinery. Drug use and intoxication drastically increases the chance of death or dismemberment - for the inebriated, or often, others around them. As a pilot, I seriously don’t care if you show up to work high or not - unless you’re doing maintenance on the jet I’m supposed to fly.

Fail drug test != show up to work high.

Past performance != future performance

But it's the best signal we've got. Ignore it at your peril. Perhaps you are too young or live in too modern a world to understand how dangerous rare events are. Constructive paranoia has helped select evolutionary survivors for a very long time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/science/jared-diamonds-gui...

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