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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#61

Post by foldor »

neves wrote: post #27
dionidium wrote: post #17

I work at a medium-sized software company. We've had similar problems with younger employees. Guys literally posting in company-wide Slack channels that they're "feeling a little sleepy this morning, gonna be in later." Can you even imagine somebody saying that to their boss in some black-and-white movie from the 1940s? "Hey, how about instead of coming in later you hit the bricks and never come back?" The culture ha…

I'd prefer my software developers with a sharp mind than sleepy zumbis that are just physically present.

I think it's more about the attitude of not being prepared. Someone who is prepared will go to bed early enough to allow them to show up on time without being exhausted.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#62

Post by 52-6F-62 »

onion2k wrote: post #4
ocschwar wrote: post #2

Plumbers can't telecommute.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

That would be pretty funny, but plumbing can be pretty damned complex work.

I could see some potential in apprenticeships taking place remotely, though. At least in the latter years of one. And maybe compliance tests, journeyman tests, etc — depending on the nature of the work. And in that case, less Skype, and more AR.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#63

Post by stemc43 »

thanatropism wrote: post #29

This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant, wages tend to rise. was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

illegals dont have SSNs. EMployers have to run ssn verification before they hire you. These checks are instant and this will popup immediately. Can they still hire you - well maybe for janitorial -> manufacturing jobs I'd say highly unlikely.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#64

Post by sillysaurus3 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #42
throwawayjava wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary. > Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. So don't give drug tests? > Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at a…

> So don't give drug tests? While I agree that drug tests are a scam as a white collar worker, I do think they're necessary from a liability perspective if you're in construction, manufacturing, or driving a company vehicle. I fully support the use of recreational drugs on someone's own time, but you have to weed out (forgive the pun) those who are under the influence when loss of life or limb is a risk.

We don't give breath tests, but people rarely show up drunk. Yet the same arguments apply.

Doesn't that say something about the effectiveness of testing?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#65

Post by Y7ZCQtNo39 »

dionidium wrote: post #39
Y7ZCQtNo39 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe there are some engagement issues? Do people feel connected to the work and to their peers? I've observed increases in this type of behavior when things aren't going so well. When people feel like they are shipping software that makes a difference, they want to be there. If it's only this individual, then it probably speaks more to their behavior than anything systemic. But if it is others too, I would look more…

Setting aside my particular company, your response is just more evidence of the culture change I'm talking about. Not every job is going to engage you or enable you to make the kind of difference you want to make in the world. The notion that this is a valid excuse for telling your boss, "hey, pops, I'm not feeling engaged this morning, gonna be in later" is a new one . Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe not. But it's…

I think there is some truth to what we're both saying. At my particular company, the koolaid has always been about how innovate and exciting the work is.

But you get in and spend a lot of your time fixing bugs and working on old, monolithic codebases.

People want to make a difference, employers sell the vision, and then there's this mis-match and you have the disengaged worker.

I think the problem is the reality that most software jobs need skilled workers, but skilled workers are often seeking enough intellectual stimulation from their jobs to make a difference, and a lot of this work isn't the the type of life-changing envisioned.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#66

Post by QAPereo »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #35
QAPereo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what over 40 years of gutting education and social safety nets bought us. Idiocracy is coming!

No, this is what happens when employers show their workers absolutely no loyalty over decades. If people have no reason to care about their job, they won't care about it. The labor market is tight enough so that they can't just fire everyone who behaves like that, otherwise everyone would quit.

That’s a factor, but the collective dumbing down is as well. We now have a nearly feral workforce and body politic, because contrary to expectations, they’re unpredictable and hard to control.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#67

Post by gthtjtkt »

Xylakant wrote: post #53
gthtjtkt wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Probably none. Most illegal immigrants don’t work manufacturing. You say that as if the jobs taken by illegals exist in some alternate universe where simple economic principles don't apply. If an illegal immigrant's job is vacant (because he couldn't enter the country) and a would-be manufacturing worker fills that job, that obviously has a direct impact on the manufacturer's ability to hire that worker. He's no lo…

This makes little sense. Illegal immigrants usually occupy the least qualified and least-paid jobs. Few persons that are qualified to apply for a manufacturing would rather apply for a job that an illegal immigrant could get.

Do the illegal immigrants take those jobs because they pay so little, or do those jobs pay so little because there has always been a steady supply of illegal immigrants desperate to fill them at below-market prices?

If your business model relies on wages being suppressed by those illegal workers, then maybe your business deserves to go bankrupt when the supply dries up and Americans start demanding $15/hour.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#68

Post by TheAdamAndChe »

turc1656 wrote: post #48
nesyt wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you against this? Flexible working hours that can bend to accommodate very malleable human lives seems better than rigid adherence to traditional schedules for the sake of it.

I imagine what dionidium is getting at is the lack of good, reasonable cause to either not show up or be late. For example, I'm fortunate enough to have a high paying job in the finance industry and our office/company is pretty laid back and very good about the work/life balance thing. But managers here would react in two different ways to people being out late drinking and oversleeping vs. there being a massive acci…

> The younger crowd seems to be largely detached from the idea of responsibility that was drilled into previous generations.

My father graduated college making $42k/yr. Inflation adjusted, that was about $60k/yr in today's dollars. I just graduated, have experience in the field, and am getting a salary of $35k/yr in today's dollars. Meanwhile, upper management is getting millions.

In that kind of work environment, why _should_ I care? It's not like they're going to fire me.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#69

Post by throwawayjava »

seibelj wrote: post #30

I keep reading that AI is going to eliminate all the jobs. Yet unemployment is at record lows and wages are rising across the board. Could it be possible that AI will instead free people to work on new jobs in new industries? Amazing! It’s almost like this time is not any different from any other time.

There was a long lag between the time when companies invested in hardware and the time when worker productivity started really picking up. And a lot of the job reduction didn't happen in firings, it happened in not replacing retirements.

Unemployment lags behind productivity increases.

Productivity increases lag behind tech adoption.

Tech adoption lags behind innovation.

innovation lags behind technology maturation.

technology maturation lags behind science.

A lot of the transformation automation is in the "science/maturation" or the "innovation" phases.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#70

Post by TheCapn »

thanatropism wrote: post #26
westbywest wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A substantial factor in licensed tradespersons' ability to collect the wages they get is that many situations require the work be done by a license holder. For example electrical or plumbing repairs done to satisfy a building code violation are often expected to have permit paperwork documenting the repair. License = ability to pull permit.

What, can't a tradesman certify that a job was done to code remotely? We allow people to get degrees online. Of course, some things (is the screw really tight?) can't be verified by video only, but possibly one could devise smarter tools like pressure gauges and some such that can be shown over a video call.

I'd be curious what the cost savings in the end were regardless.

An untrained hand takes so much longer to complete a task that a professional is used to regardless of the understanding. Do you want to slog along a journeyman in video conference for 8 hours or hire him for 2? What's your cost going to be with either?

Beyond that a lot of physical tasks can be done blind, does he "see" that you've threaded the hose properly or applied the compound properly when you're doing it by feel as your eyes can't reach behind whatever you're working at?

I like the idea but I always relate back to my own real world experiences and think about how inefficient it is to remotely task with someone. Ever try helping your parents navigate their computer over the phone? Imagine doing that with a professional @ $100/hr or whatever to replace your faucet or wire new fixtures and run cabling to a breaker panel

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