Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S.

#131

Post by Dn_Ab » Tue, Aug 03, 2010, 4:37 PM UTC

bajsejohannes wrote: post #69

If the movement between the user groups remain the same, then in 10 years time, it will have stabilized on around 6% blackberry, 70% iphones, and 24% android (ignoring everyone going to "other smartphone os") (Finally I got to use Markov chains! Code here for anyone interested: http://codepad.org/cstzwXbG )

Unfortunately I must say that this method is flawed. The are two key implicit assumptions that break the whole thing. The lesser one first -

You are assuming that the sample you have taken is a good estimate of the true probabilities. You have assumed that the probabilities will remain the same. This latter assumption is the next problem.

you heard of the black swan concept? The future is predictable except for the unpredictable parts.

I say this because I too have been thinking about this and wondering what kind of model would be the least worst indicator since all predictors are poor the longer the timespan as a ratio of stability of system in study. I am thinking something inspired by the N body problem and swarm based optimization would be cool to look at. Alas, I have not the time to pursue this.

Re: Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S.

#132

Post by paul9290 » Tue, Aug 03, 2010, 5:45 PM UTC

napierzaza wrote: post #127

WilliamLP wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ironic that what developers hate about iPhone is precisely what makes it ideal for developers who want to make money. This being the walled garden, the inability to easily install free third party programs, and also the fact that there is a financial barrier to entry (a Mac, plus a dev fee) means that other developers are reluctant to make their apps free in the first place - meaning you don't have to compete wi…

Evil circle of ... Please stop. This is what every single company on the planet does. Few things are inter compatible and you'd be naive to hope that they would. Apple has solutions (implementations) to a problem which are different to everyone else's.

I created this poll here http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1571592 to find out are iPhone users really more inclined to buy over Android users?

Appreciate u taking the poll.

Re: Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S.

#133

Post by redrobot5050 » Wed, Aug 04, 2010, 2:59 PM UTC

camiller wrote: post #97

Samuel_Michon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there a lot of non-phone Android devices out there? Do they sell well? If it's less than 40 million units, it doesn't change the result.

Of any single device? I'm not sure, all combined maybe. The B&N nook alone is probably the most common one but probably only a half million units sold. So even all combined probably not.

The nook has such little power that to call it "Android Powered" is a gross misuse of the term. Yes, you can downgrade the firmware, root the device, and upgrade it, but the web browser is still god-awful and I didn't see any good third party apps.

For an e-book reader, with the option of playing Chess and MP3s, its top-notch. But right now, the ability to run apps on it is more theoretical than practical.