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Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

vintageguitarprice.com

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Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#31

Post by alexanderstears »

iamcasen wrote: post #10

As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars? Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good…

> I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem.

Let me put on my capitalist apologist hat.

It used to be the case that people bought light bulbs regularly. When I grew up, my parents had a cache of incandescent light bulbs - then they started buying fluorescent lights and we replaced bulbs much less often. Now, they're starting to buy LED lights and I don' think an LED has ever 'burned out' on them.

The revenues are down, but as people shift from buying disposable light bulbs to durable light bulbs, they're willing to pay more for better bulbs.

So now manufacturers are competing on building better bulbs / bulbs that are more valuable. It's a really good thing for the world, we're using fewer resources and making a better product.

I don't know much about guitars but I'd bet it's better to make high quality guitars than low quality guitars right now. And you're absolutely right that we're getting closer to the 'right amount' of guitars in the world. At some point, we'll really only need to build guitars to replace ones that we lose.

The capitalist answer to businesses who count on infinite growth is "market correction". Either guitar makers will find a way to stay in business or they'll go bankrupt and free up resources for better use.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#32

Post by chiefalchemist »

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars.

That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#33

Post by pygy_ »

wishinghand wrote: post #17
AdmiralAsshat wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be my question, too. People were puzzled when tablet sales came to a crawl, until they started to consider whether people stopped buying them because they were good enough and still worked . I mean realistically, how many guitars does one need? I'm an amateur bass player. I have a cheap-ass practice bass and, if I get some pocket change, I may buy a $1500 professional bass. I would think that should last m…

My personal answer to "how many guitars do you need?" is basically one for each tuning that I use regularly. Unless it's simply changing one string from E to D, re-tuning a whole guitar is a pain in the ass and just being able to swap guitars is a lot nicer. I have one for standard tuning, one tuned like a cello, and one in open D-minor. I do admit if you're playing a bass guitar this rule isn't as applicable.

Hey, I also have one of my guitars tuned in fifth ~like a cello From low to high CGDAAe, with custom gauge strings to match the neck tension. One A is wound, the other is full...

How did you tune yours exactly?

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#34

Post by levicole »

bherms wrote: post #16

As a lifetime guitar player and owner of way too many, I think what I've seen (and keep in mind this is only anecdotal) is that boutique guitar makers are making a big comeback while traditional mass producers are seeing less interest. If I'm going to spend $2500-7500 on a top of the line guitar (that is often an art piece as well) I'd rather work with a craft builder and get something unique to my specs versus a mas…

Bingo! I'd say it's similar to the craft beer movement.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#35

Post by [deleted] »

mgdo wrote: post #26

Some interesting and related Google Trends: - "Learn Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20... - "Play Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20g... - "Guitar vs Piano": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,p...

[deleted]

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#36

Post by eroccatlun »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #32

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars. That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

Oddly, there are some amazing young guitarists... though obviously, anyone who is already great has likely been at it for 10+ years, so there may be a significant shortage 10 years from now.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#37

Post by surrey-fringe »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #32

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars. That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

Yeah, I always associated your generation's music with hard work and discipline. Jimmy Hendrix and The Who and the like.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#38

Post by nikanj »

iamcasen wrote: post #10

As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars? Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good…

> I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars?

This is the exact same question my wife asks. About bicycles, too.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#39

Post by stcredzero »

jasode wrote: post #9
stcredzero wrote: post #8

I suspect that this should really be thought of as, "The biggest buying opportunity, ever!" in the guitar market.

A lot of people are predicting an "ebay guitar apocalypse" as the mass effect of guitar owners start passing away. Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them. Your dad's fancy Paul Reed Smith guitar that cost $3000 will only be worth a fraction of that when a million other used PRS guitars flood the market. It's an interesting predi…

Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them.

You already have this in instrument markets for traditional music. Trad musicians are minorities in the general culture, but their market demand for once-mainstream mass produced instruments of yesteryear can still support prices. (Paolo Soprani B,C button accordion, anyone?) Sure, you still have the occasional find, where someone sells something for 1/10th the price they could have gotten out of ignorance.

I wonder if everyone is going to be satisfied with making music on a laptop? I also wonder if playing a guitar is ever going to stop getting people laid? If you have both of these conditions, then guitars might go the way of the Flageolett. Historically, "outdated" instruments flooding markets at bargain prices have tended to give rise to new musical opportunities in underprivileged communities. Occasionally, they give rise to new genres.

Re: Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

#40

Post by mandelbrotwurst »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #32

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars. That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

Eh, get off my lawn with your generalizations about "kids today" =/

Maybe at least provide one of your anecdotes?

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