Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash

#11

Post by moronicalox » Fri, Nov 17, 2017, 9:34 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #2

I know it's cool to hate cryptocurrencies, but the whole "FOMO" part of this article is almost entirely made up. Even if it's true, the author has no way to know that for sure, and anecdotally I haven't seen it. Most of the people that I know that are buying right now are doing so because for the first time in a while (unfortunately) Bitcoin is in a fairly stable state. There are no (serious) forks coming up, no mass…

The "FOMO" bit is the same kind of thing these finance articles always use: "market moves, and here's why." For the most part, nobody truly knows exactly why the market moves the way it does from day to day, but these journalists always try to provide a narrative- even if it's not true it's usually not provable.

Re: Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash

#12

Post by Klathmon » Fri, Nov 17, 2017, 9:44 PM UTC

tom_mellior wrote: post #10

Klathmon wrote: post #2

I know it's cool to hate cryptocurrencies, but the whole "FOMO" part of this article is almost entirely made up. Even if it's true, the author has no way to know that for sure, and anecdotally I haven't seen it. Most of the people that I know that are buying right now are doing so because for the first time in a while (unfortunately) Bitcoin is in a fairly stable state. There are no (serious) forks coming up, no mass…

> the mempool is back to a reasonable size This mempool? https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?timespan=1year&d... Looking at this (7-day average over the last year), it is currently at 100 MB. It was higher than this for about two weeks in late May/early June this year and has never since reached 100 MB. The last maximum was a brief peak at 80 MB in late August. For much of the year it was below 20 MB. I would…

Not all transactions are equal.

If you look at this[0] representation, you'll see that the vast majority of transactions (like over 90% by size) are extremely small fee transactions (most under 10 sat/byte, 90%+ under 20 sat/byte)

Ignore those low fee transactions, and the mempool is under 8MB (and you can ignore them as long as you pay over 20 sat/byte, since miners will take the highest fee transactions first)

[0] https://core.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h

Re: Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash

#13

Post by tom_mellior » Fri, Nov 17, 2017, 10:09 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #12

tom_mellior wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the mempool is back to a reasonable size This mempool? https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?timespan=1year&d... Looking at this (7-day average over the last year), it is currently at 100 MB. It was higher than this for about two weeks in late May/early June this year and has never since reached 100 MB. The last maximum was a brief peak at 80 MB in late August. For much of the year it was below 20 MB. I would…

Not all transactions are equal. If you look at this[0] representation, you'll see that the vast majority of transactions (like over 90% by size) are extremely small fee transactions (most under 10 sat/byte, 90%+ under 20 sat/byte) Ignore those low fee transactions, and the mempool is under 8MB (and you can ignore them as long as you pay over 20 sat/byte, since miners will take the highest fee transactions first) [0]…

Excellent points, thanks! That looks like a really useful tool for getting a better look at what's going on.

Re: Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash

#14

Post by ericb » Fri, Nov 17, 2017, 10:19 PM UTC

sparkie wrote: post #4

Klathmon wrote: post #2

I know it's cool to hate cryptocurrencies, but the whole "FOMO" part of this article is almost entirely made up. Even if it's true, the author has no way to know that for sure, and anecdotally I haven't seen it. Most of the people that I know that are buying right now are doing so because for the first time in a while (unfortunately) Bitcoin is in a fairly stable state. There are no (serious) forks coming up, no mass…

Bitcoin is not in a stable state. Price rises every time Tether decides to fabricate 20-30 million dollars they don't have, which coincidentally happens every time bitcoin starts to lose steam and the price drops a little. > no major exchange going under Not yet, but every exchange trading Tether will probably sink, along with the price of bitcoin, when Tether (aka Bitfinix) can no longer keep up their fraud.

I thought I saw some threads a while back saying that tethers had been audited, and the speculation that they were not actually backed wasn't true. Am I imagining that?

Re: Bitcoin nears $8,000 as ‘FOMO’ traders pile in after crash

#15

Post by Klathmon » Fri, Nov 17, 2017, 10:29 PM UTC

tom_mellior wrote: post #13

Klathmon wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all transactions are equal. If you look at this[0] representation, you'll see that the vast majority of transactions (like over 90% by size) are extremely small fee transactions (most under 10 sat/byte, 90%+ under 20 sat/byte) Ignore those low fee transactions, and the mempool is under 8MB (and you can ignore them as long as you pay over 20 sat/byte, since miners will take the highest fee transactions first) [0]…

Excellent points, thanks! That looks like a really useful tool for getting a better look at what's going on.

It's my go-to site for looking at what the mempool state is!

Most of the time if you just use the estimation from your wallet software you should be fine, but if you like to craft crazy transactions to clean up a bunch of dust or like to save money, it's a great resource.