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Tesla Semi

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Re: Tesla Semi

#431
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. You often end up carrying more fuel than you need so you can buy it in cheaper places. And then there’s the whole art of timing your fuel stops around the weigh stations... > still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. That’s not that crazy if they can actually deliver on the operating cost savings…

At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.

Yeah no doubt, there are a ton of unanswered questions here. If they can't retrofit their existing chargers to "mega" status that would pretty severely limit the usefulness of this product.

Re: Tesla Semi

#432

Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S battery weighs 1,200 lbs lets assume they somehow improved on that by 20-30% so this is a 10,000 lb battery. Not sure how much the motors weigh, the Tesla motor and inverter are about 350lbs so lets say another 1000lbs. A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500…

If you take the Model S and scale it up then people have said the battery is half the cost of the car, and therefore the battery alone is roughly the cost of a normal car. I don't think it would be suprising if the same is true for the semi.

There's at least one rural delivery man who bought a Tesla Model S and paid for it by using the mileage payments he gets for his job. So as long as your route fits, the same kind of high up front cost being amortised over time applies. The more miles you drive the better the economics works due to lower fuel/maintenance costs.

Non-Tesla companies are making pretty much the same pitch in regards to battery busses, again targetting fleet managers who have the spreadsheets in place already to plan and manage this kind of expenditure.

Re: Tesla Semi

#433

Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S battery weighs 1,200 lbs lets assume they somehow improved on that by 20-30% so this is a 10,000 lb battery. Not sure how much the motors weigh, the Tesla motor and inverter are about 350lbs so lets say another 1000lbs. A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500…

I'm guessing a battery pack of 2019 will weigh about 60-70% what the old battery pack of Model S weighted per kWh.

See for instance Roadster's 200 kWh, which I'm pretty sure is not twice as heavy as that of the Model S.

Re: Tesla Semi

#434
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. You often end up carrying more fuel than you need so you can buy it in cheaper places. And then there’s the whole art of timing your fuel stops around the weigh stations... > still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. That’s not that crazy if they can actually deliver on the operating cost savings…

At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.

It would be a slow rollout anyway. First customers would be people with ~200 mile routes, just charge at home base.

Then people with ~500 mile routes that can charge at both ends. grow from there.

Re: Tesla Semi

#436
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shouldn't be an issue - not all trucks are long haul, lots of trucks do pickup & delivery and never leave the city they're in.

That seems reasonable for a box truck or similar. I'm skeptical about a semi though. I'm sure there are some use cases, just not convinced it's a significant percentage. It also rules out consecutive/night shifts with a second driver. Edit: Product page says 300 miles standard, but a 500 mile option: https://www.tesla.com/semi/?new

> That seems reasonable for a box truck or similar. I'm skeptical about a semi though. I'm sure there are some use cases, just not convinced it's a significant percentage.

TL;DR: pickup and delivery trucks don't go very far each day and pull lighter loads. There are more pickup and delivery trucks than long-haul trucks.

Full version:

I worked for the largest LTL carrier in the country for almost a decade, in process improvement. I'm not a trucker by any means but I do feel like I have a pretty good grasp of the business processes in that industry.

There are two types of trailers typically used in the US: 53', which are generally used to move things directly from point A to point B, and 28' - "pups" - which are typically used to move things that have to go through intermediate steps. Correspondingly, the freight market is divided into "truckload"/"TL" and "less-than-truckload"/"LTL" carriers.

Truckload carriers often drop off 53' trailers at customer locations. Customers fill them up, and the carrier picks them up and takes them to their destination. They also use pups for this purpose, but 53' trailers are more efficient due to the larger capacity.

Less-than-truckload carriers pick up and deliver things that are usually on pallets. Drivers run a delivery route in the morning and a pickup route in the afternoon, pulling a single pup. They bring their pup back to the terminal where its unloaded and shipments are loaded according to their destination.

LTL carriers differ substantially from TL carriers because they have to handle customer shipments, moving them from trailer to trailer. The general flow here is Pickup -> Terminal -> Hub -> Terminal -> Delivery. Shipments going long distances may move through multiple hubs over several days, each of which may handle the shipments to more efficiently use trailer capacity.

The process improvement part of LTL that I worked in was trying to reduce loss and damages by reducing the number of times a shipment is touched. If a terminal in California has a pup full of shipments that are destined for a single terminal in North Carolina, then that trailer should never be opened until it gets to North Carolina. If half of it is destined for Utah and half for North Carolina, then the Utah stuff should be in the back, and when the trailer gets to Salt Lake City the Utah stuff should be unloaded, more North Carolina stuff put on to fill it, and it shouldn't be opened again from that point to destination.

Whew. That's a lot of background information. I wrote all of that to say - for LTL carriers, most P&D trucks don't travel long distances in a single day, and are usually pulling half the load of a long-haul truck. From an operations standpoint I see no reason why the Tesla truck wouldn't be suitable for that role.

Re: Tesla Semi

#437
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took an interest in this and looked up "retarder" on Wikipedia and it mentions engine braking (and exhaust braking), hydraulic retarders and electric retarders which are eddy current brakes more commonly used in the railways. Which one are you referring to? According to the article, most commonly these are not used for regenerative braking, the energy is wasted as heat instead. Eddy current brakes can be used for r…

Sorry, for not checking Wikipedia. Because I work in the industry as an electrical engineer defining standards, and owning a historic truck myself just for fun, because I can. Originally, it is right that retarders were introduced to just having a non-destructive brake by just wasting the energy. That was around the 1980s. This was just to save maintenance cost as brakes were a big part of that costs. The trucking in…

Do note though that engine braking is banned in many population areas because it is so damn loud!

Re: Tesla Semi

#438
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems reasonable for a box truck or similar. I'm skeptical about a semi though. I'm sure there are some use cases, just not convinced it's a significant percentage. It also rules out consecutive/night shifts with a second driver. Edit: Product page says 300 miles standard, but a 500 mile option: https://www.tesla.com/semi/?new

> It also rules out consecutive/night shifts with a second driver. One of the things we're learning about electrical vehicles is that they do lead to a culture change in the way people operate them. Trucker culture currently... blows. They often eat bad food, subsist on caffeine and often other stimulants, work excruciatingly long hours, and often have or cause accidents due to those long hours. They're away from hom…

> Trucker culture currently... blows. They often eat bad food, subsist on caffeine and often other stimulants, work excruciatingly long hours, and often have or cause accidents due to those long hours. They're away from home and their families for weeks of a month. They sit in unergonomic conditions and often sleep in cramped quarters aboard their trucks. Truck drivers in India are often seen as very low class people because of this kind of living situation.

In the US, this depends entirely on the company culture. Where I worked, our road drivers were home every night. In the extreme minority of cases where there wasn't a service center close enough to drive to in Other carriers, especially those with mostly contractors and owner/operators, don't take this approach.

Re: Tesla Semi

#439
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. You often end up carrying more fuel than you need so you can buy it in cheaper places. And then there’s the whole art of timing your fuel stops around the weigh stations... > still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. That’s not that crazy if they can actually deliver on the operating cost savings…

At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.

Elon says that the truck will be charged by the end of the 30 minute DOT required break (14:06 into the livestream: https://livestream.tesla.com/).

Re: Tesla Semi

#440
Probably not a popular opinion but this Tesla business feels like what I imagine being cult or Ponzi scheme would feel like.
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