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Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

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Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#511

Post by Cthulhu_ »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #467
zerostar07 wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot closer to facebook than a game. It's basically a building game.

It’s basically 80% doll’s house, 20% brothel, where everyone pays rent. The idea isn’t terrible, but the implementation had some horrific flaws, and Linden Labs became notorious for infuriating users. SL might have taken off if both servers and clients were fully open-sourced, and LL had concentrated on building a global system for connecting open servers together. I strongly suspect someone will rediscover the idea…

> I strongly suspect someone will rediscover the idea 5-10 years from now, do it properly

Very likely, also happening in VR.

> and replace today’s web.

Not likely. It's just not going to happen. Pretty sure there have been multiple attempts at a 3d internet, but, nope.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#512

Post by jasode »

bsaul wrote: post #412
IshKebab wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not surprised DVD-Audio and co failed. Their quality is indistinguishable from CDs despite what audiophiles would have you believe, and by the time they came out MP3 was clearly the future.

even if you don’t believe in very high quality audio like me, the fact is we’re listening to stereo music, but viewing movies on 5.1 systems. This would have been different with dvd-a. I would have loved to listen to a live concert cd with surround sound.

>5.1 systems. This would have been different with dvd-a. I would have loved to listen to a live concert cd with surround sound.

As to your specific DVD-Audio example, I think it didn't widely catch on because most music is consumed (1) with earphones (2) in the car (3) as incidental background while multitasking. The scenario of "purposeful" music listening by sitting in the center sweet spot of a 5.1 setup is very rare.

There's also a long history of technology that's "superior" but isn't accepted by the masses. There's a "law of diminishing returns" and/or other dimensions of utility (such as convenience) have higher priority than quality. Examples:

- quadrophonic sound[1] is more immersive than 2-channel stereo but people didn't buy it

- satellite radio is higher quality sound than FM radio but Sirius XM remains a niche and won't penetrate the market like FM did. Yes, FM had higher fidelity than AM and listeners switched but the same didn't happen for satellite.

- 24bit-96kHz or 192kHz audio did not take over 16bit-44kHz (1411kbps). Instead, the opposite happened and more listeners consumed lower quality 128kbps mp3 and AAC files. Lower quality was driven by Napster + iPod + Spotify. Convenience trumped highest fidelity.

- Bluray discs : more customers pay for digital streaming (often with lower resolution than 1080p) than upgrading the old DVDs to Bluray. There was more market penetration with VHS to DVD.

- large 3D tv screens : the explosive growth is smaller screens on mobile phones playing Youtube rather than 3D content like Avatar. 3D is now seen as a gimmick fad.

History has shown that we always overestimate how technical "quality" drives consumer adoption.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadraphonic_sound

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#513

Post by msl09 »

ajdlinux wrote: post #73
Jtsummers wrote: post #17

I'm not sure I expected it to take the world "by storm", but I expected more from Google Wave. It was a great concept, by a major company, but it was too slow on release and the rollout killed it. In retrospect, it probably wouldn't have lasted anyways. Google was in the process of minimizing their federated communication services by that point, and that was another major selling point of Google Wave's initial propos…

My primary recollection of Wave was that it ran really slowly on the browsers and computers I had at the time, which also wouldn't have helped.

Yeah browsers weren't very fast at the time and we still used flash.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#514

Post by Cthulhu_ »

cm2187 wrote: post #482
grahamburger wrote: post #134

3D printing. Turns out making little plastic shapes isn't all that useful. Seems obvious in hindsight.

And that you can pretty much find anything you can think of on amazon & competitors. I really wanted to design and 3d print something, but it took me several years to find something I couldn't just order for under $5 on amazon. And even then I could have done something good enough and cheaper with lego bricks!

Lego bricks or if you want something a bit more permanent, a bit of wood. The plastic really isn't a good material to do much with.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#515

Post by akvadrako »

johan_larson wrote: post #148

I'm disappointed none of the various constructed "universal" languages (like Esperanto) ever took off. Having a single common language spoken by everyone would be enormously useful. As it is, the closest we have is English, but it's a natural language and therefore complicated and difficult to learn.

Esperanto is still growing; I wouldn't give up on it yet. It's only recently been added to Duolingo.

The main reason is that it's so much easier to learn than English, it can be taught "for free". Basically, instead of just teaching the target language, first teach Esperanto. At the end of a fixed time, students are better at the target language.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaedeutic_value_of_Esperant...

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#516

Post by tuomosipola »

icebraining wrote: post #390
tuomosipola wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a feeling that the right timing of English-speaking political dominance in 19th and 20th century combined with global information technology boom has contributed a lot here. It could have been French (and in a sense was) if they had had movies and Internet earlier. To me English doesn't feel logical at times (maybe a subjective observation) but at least we all can agree that the ortography with its historical…

It could have been French (and in a sense was) if they had had movies and Internet earlier. Earlier? The French invented the movie theater.

I was thinking like 17th up to 19th century earlier when French was the dominant international language in many domains :)

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#517

Post by Terretta »

olavgg wrote: post #498
vortico wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm out of date. Does E-ink still have ~500ms latency of refreshing the screen? If so, that's the #1 reason I believed it wouldn't be successful when I used them 6 years ago.

There is a Norwegian startup that has decreased the latency dramatically. https://remarkable.com/ https://youtu.be/zpUPpiV7gAo

I have one. Really is remarkable.

No meaningful latency while writing unless you draw fast large figures while watching for lag.

Upsides: Feels like pencil on paper. With iPad Pro I keep going back to paper. With this... it’s paper.

Downsides: Mobile software clunky, doesn’t connect to all WiFi, hardware paging buttons should not have been on bottom.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#518

Post by saas_co_de »

captainmuon wrote: post #454

Peer-to-peer file sharing. There was a time when Napster, Kazaa, eMule were king. The content industry fought against it, but developers came up with decentralized solutions like DHTs or supernodes. I was convinced the next step would be friend-of-a-friend sharing. You only share files with your direct friends. But they can pass on these files automatically, so their friends can get the files, too. The friends of you…

Bittorrent is good enough and there aren't really any law enforcement concerns any more. Pre 9/11 FBI and other agencies were actually doing prosecutions against people for unlicensed content distribution but after 9/11 they decided to focus on higher priorities so nobody really cares about security any more.

A warning letter from the ISP is not quite the same threat as a few years in a fed pen.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#519

Post by jacobr »

Dowwie wrote: post #447

The semantic web . It spawned an entire generation of academic study, but aside from assuring job security for researchers hasn't amounted to anything beyond their ivory towers.

I remember my huge number of delicious bookmarks tagged with "folksonomy" and other buzz words.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#520

Post by cm2187 »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #514
cm2187 wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that you can pretty much find anything you can think of on amazon & competitors. I really wanted to design and 3d print something, but it took me several years to find something I couldn't just order for under $5 on amazon. And even then I could have done something good enough and cheaper with lego bricks!

Lego bricks or if you want something a bit more permanent, a bit of wood. The plastic really isn't a good material to do much with.

If I had a basement where I could do some DIY, I could also have gone the metal/laser cutting and folding route (which one can order online for not much), and done a bit of welding. It seems pretty neat and easy to do and very durable.

I made the mistake to 3d print in white plastic, which is turning yellow very quickly, not very durable as you say.

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