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Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

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Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#171

Post by kumarski »

CRISPR.

My naivete surrounded me. I didn't realize that even though there was a high output of genetic marker tests that very few if of them would result in viable CRISPR targets.

There's 60K genetic marker tests on the market.

8 to 10 new ones come out each day.

Humanity has little hope of figuring out the sort of "druggable targets."

Genome Wide Association Studies aren't like websites or apps waiting to be optimized with more data.

The more data you feed in the more obfuscated the truth becomes.

Drug discovery is hard and CRISPR modifications are technology way ahead of clear problem framing.

https://omicsomics.blogspot.com/2017/03/targets-drugability-...

For 12 years, I've had a chronic autoimmune disorder that I had hoped would be solved by the likes of a massive genetic dataset of Ulcerative Colitis twins that had been separated at birth where one twin had the disease and the other didn't.

I had hoped that CRISPR would be the solution given enough problem context from a solid GWAS, but this was foolish.

Our best bets in biotech are not in the latest technologies, they are in ensuring that basic science, phase 0, and phase 1 trials get large unfettered funding.

I had hoped Liz Parrish's outfit would make leaps and bounds in genetic modification for patients like me, but that ended up being baloney. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11560943

CRISPR technologies are like bullets to attack problems, but the operator is always increasingly blind. Bonferroni Corrections abound and family wise error rate are unforgiving in all things related to GWAS studies.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#172

Post by vortico »

contingencies wrote: post #12

X3D - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X3D Rationale: It was the 1990s, VRML flew but didn't quite make it. 3D hardware acceleration had arrived, gaming was exploding, Descent and Quake had proven complex worlds and freedom of movement were possible on commodity hardware, and talk of buffering 3D content in video streams seemed to make perfect sense for next generation passive entertainment. Product placements, architect…

Wouldn't a Javascript X3D-to-WebGL wrapper solve this? That would allow time for adoption to happen during the standardization process, until browsers begin to implement it natively. If nobody is using this now with a JS wrapper, then why should browsers standardize it?

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#173

Post by swyx »

kobeya wrote: post #39

The general-purpose computer. It's a dinosaur on the verge of extinction at the hands of walled-garden app stores on phones and tablets. I never, ever expected that to happen.

as a web developer i am bemused at every other comment on here that seems to agree with your sentiment that the world is walling up. yes, app stores will be a control mechanism for ever and consumers may not understand what they are opting into. but equally the open web will never go away and that's what general purpose computation has shifted to, thats basically all we've done this century. am i misunderstanding what you mean by general purpose computer?

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#174

Post by nikanj »

phillc73 wrote: post #142

UDP for fast file transfer. Working in the television industry at the time and a few companies were making tools based on UDP, for sending large files across public networks. Smartjog, Aspera, Signiant. The companies are still around, but only operating in the B2B space as far as I know. I thought this technology was going to replace FTP. People wanting to punt bigger and bigger files around, they needed better tools…

The #1 most used file transfer tool seems to be Dropbox. I put stuff into mine, give you a link and everything magically works.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#176

Post by swyx »

grumblestumble wrote: post #108

E-Ink. It is the "correct" choice for display technology, and with enough research money put into it, it could replace these abominable light-emitting displays. But what we already have is "good enough", despite all of the hidden costs, and so we're stuck with it.

100% agree. imagine my shock when as a young technology analyst I discovered that E-Ink was a smallcap tech company in Taiwan and basically produced kindle displays, store price tags and that cool double sided phone that one time. I thought it was a huge deal when they managed to do color E-Ink. but no one cared.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#177

Post by swyx »

kumarski wrote: post #171

CRISPR. My naivete surrounded me. I didn't realize that even though there was a high output of genetic marker tests that very few if of them would result in viable CRISPR targets. There's 60K genetic marker tests on the market. 8 to 10 new ones come out each day. Humanity has little hope of figuring out the sort of "druggable targets." Genome Wide Association Studies aren't like websites or apps waiting to be optimiz…

whoa this is non consensus (to the biology-uneducated me). thank you for pointing this out, the mass media is still on the CRISPR hype train. Oh dear.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#178

Post by chubot »

swyx wrote: post #173
kobeya wrote: post #39

The general-purpose computer. It's a dinosaur on the verge of extinction at the hands of walled-garden app stores on phones and tablets. I never, ever expected that to happen.

as a web developer i am bemused at every other comment on here that seems to agree with your sentiment that the world is walling up. yes, app stores will be a control mechanism for ever and consumers may not understand what they are opting into. but equally the open web will never go away and that's what general purpose computation has shifted to, thats basically all we've done this century. am i misunderstanding wha…

Can a program written for the web access all the great sensors on your Android or iPhone? Can it access new movies and TV shows?

The web is a big success story, but it's not all there is in computing.

Re: Ask HN: What tech were you convinced would take the world by storm but didn't?

#179

Post by examancer »

Flying cars. I remember seeing prototypes in late 80s and early 90s, constantly showing up on Discovery Channel programs I watched as a kid like Beyond 2000 or Next Step.

Over time it seemed increasingly far out, but, possible. Eventually I realized things like how catastrophic a break down or accident would be meant it will likely never happen. I and everyone else who thought flying cars were on the horizon were suckers.

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