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The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

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Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You arguably have a point (so does the parent), but this isn’t the way to express it in a respectful discussion.

I dislike the notion that discourse needs to be respectful at all times. Discourse shouldn't be baselessly disrespectful, sure. But the robotic, tsk tsk , shaming attitude that gets thrown around on forums whenever someone expresses any negative emotion gets old too. In any case, complaining about having to pay capital gains tax on gains OVER $500k really is the ultimate first world, privileged problem.

> In any case, complaining about having to pay capital gains tax on gains OVER $500k really is the ultimate first world, privileged problem.

Almost every complaint levied on this forum is a first world problem. Complaining about the ergonomics of a programming language is a first world problem. And secondly, he wasn't complaining, he was describing the economics of his choices. What is infinitely more toxic than 'complaining' about first world problems, is people jumping on explanations like the above as 'complaints' that need to be silenced.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#242
post #193
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Awww poor baby. You’ve made more than $500K, much of which will be untaxed, simply by owning a house. Jesus fucking Christ. Cry me a river. Most people would trade their arm in for that kind of leveraged gain.

I'm not asking anyone to feel sorry for us. I'm just pointing out that rising prices are not a panacea for owner-occupied primary residences. The result is bad for everyone because people like us end up staying in houses that are too big. That takes housing stock off the market and drives prices up even further. That's good for investors, but bad for everyone who wants to buy a house to live in.

Let's say the house didn't go up in value.. where would that leave you? Would you be any more capable to sell? (Serious question, not a rhetorical or sarcastic one.. just seems to me you'd still be in a hole, just a different hole)

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends. Location location location. The right answer changes based on what side of the city you live in. As such nobody can give a definitive answer. In all but the smallest cities you have options for a different job. They might not be as good, but there is an option. If you lose your job you can find a different job close enough to your current house that you don't have to move. Remember this is NOT an ration…

> Remember this is NOT an rational economic problem. There are good reasons to live near by the same neighbors that you know well for years. Why is a living near the same people you know and love irrational or somehow an inappropriate object of economic reasoning? You could even estimate prices for such things! Just because they're not typically represented as currency amounts doesn't mean they're not 'rationally eco…

Generally rational economics assumes someone who is rationally trying to optimizes for other factors.

You are correct that it is fully rational behavior for people. However that is not the definition used in economics. (sort of like physics tends to assume no friction where possible)

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dislike the notion that discourse needs to be respectful at all times. Discourse shouldn't be baselessly disrespectful, sure. But the robotic, tsk tsk , shaming attitude that gets thrown around on forums whenever someone expresses any negative emotion gets old too. In any case, complaining about having to pay capital gains tax on gains OVER $500k really is the ultimate first world, privileged problem.

Maybe if the comment added to the conversation somehow it'd be more tolerable. However, all the comment does is insult someone without adding anything interesting. It's a waste of space and time for everyone else reading it. It doesn't belong in HN.

Expressing incredulity and frustration at the obtuseness of someone's complaint doesn't seem especially useless to me.

Why is expressing emotional reactions pointless, in your mind? Doing so gives everyone more information about the reactions they might expect to their concerns... it enforces social norms, etc.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#245
post #107

When will we learn that a "strong" housing market is not necessarily a good thing? High housing prices are great for those who already owned houses but terrible for everyone else (e.g. the entire generations born after prices became inflated). Not to mention people are greedy and will over leverage themselves when interest rates are good. No country should let the "landed gentry" hold them hostage over interest rates…

> High housing prices are great for those who already owned houses Not really. Rising prices (not high prices) are great for people holding houses as investments . But for owner-occupied houses, rising prices are as bad for the owners as they are for everyone else. my wife and I own a house in Northern California, which we bought during the sub-prime crash. Since then it has nearly doubled in price. It is also too bi…

It seems like 3. is the real problem? If taxes were a function of current home value rather than at purchase home value, you wouldn't be stuck.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#246
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suppose I bought my house for $1M and prices are stable. I can sell my $1M house and buy a different $1M house and the net cost to me is 6% agent fees. But if prices have doubled now the net cost to me is much higher. The agent fees are double what they were, and I have to pay cap gains on $500k. All that is money I have to come up with somehow in order to complete the transaction. I either have to write a check, or…

Not understanding your complaint. You would have to sell your house for more than $1.5M to have any taxable capital gains. You would have to sell your house for more than $2.5m to have an effective tax rate of more than 10% on the sale. (For example, if you sold your house for $2m, your effective tax rate on the sale would be 5%, ignoring AMT and assuming no other significant sources of income.) Boo hoo. On the secon…

It only becomes remotely intelligible if you include these extra constraints:

- Assume all other houses in the area also appreciated the same amount as the poster's house (say 2x).

- Assume the poster will only consider a move within the same area.

Now if they want to make a "lateral" move, they are looking at $2m houses, not $1m houses, since all other houses they would consider - local to their area - also increased in value.

I feel like they should just get a $1m house (yes, a "downgrade") if that's the case and have fun with their near-$1m profits, but what do I know.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#247
It's not just Sweden, it's almost everywhere (in the western world at least).

It's almost entirely down to the effects of unprecedented quantitative easing over the past decade or so.

When you print more money than you've ever printed before, it's only natural that the prices of things will rise as more people can afford to buy things. And even if more people can't afford to buy things, the money goes somewhere so it probably means the rich people get richer. And they'll go out and buy things they know poorer people will always need i.e. property.

It all works well until property gets so expensive that the only people that can afford to buy it are other wealthy people. Eventually someone gets forced in to selling at a loss and the whole house of cards collapses as the wealthy who can afford to buy more property sit on the sidelines and wait / hope for a catastrophic collapse.

Rinse, wash, repeat and yet we still question why the rich get richer... the only way to prevent property getting out of control is by regulating it so that it remains affordable and that speculators are discouraged from entering the market and encouraged to sell. But that won't happen either because most politicians own large amounts of property and they've a vested interest in seeing the price of property rise...

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t make sense at all except for with housing. If I want to go vacation I will, if I need a new washing machine I will get it, if I want a cappuccino every morning now I can afford it no matter who I am!

If you want to go on vacation, but you can go on a little bit of a nicer vacation if you wait until next spring... If your old washing machine still mostly works, the new one will be cheaper if you can get the old one to limp along for a while longer... People don't completely stop buying things; life must go on. But people would start to drag out purchases where ever they can. Have you ever put off buying a computer…

What seems to matter more is that there has been a productive deployment of capital that gives you a reason to buy a new product, and that you have discretionary income after housing cost and other fixed costs are paid.

High housing costs are an incredibly unproductive use of capital unless it leads to building new supply and is therefore effectively a temporary incentive for developers to build more. Landlords on the other hand want there to be an undersupply, and don’t fully align with developer interests.

Prices for consumer goods have decreased for quite a while and people still buy.

And even when computers were improving significantly every year and prices went down people on average still increased their buying of new computers.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#249
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dislike the notion that discourse needs to be respectful at all times. Discourse shouldn't be baselessly disrespectful, sure. But the robotic, tsk tsk , shaming attitude that gets thrown around on forums whenever someone expresses any negative emotion gets old too. In any case, complaining about having to pay capital gains tax on gains OVER $500k really is the ultimate first world, privileged problem.

> In any case, complaining about having to pay capital gains tax on gains OVER $500k really is the ultimate first world, privileged problem. Almost every complaint levied on this forum is a first world problem. Complaining about the ergonomics of a programming language is a first world problem. And secondly, he wasn't complaining , he was describing the economics of his choices. What is infinitely more toxic than 'co…

>What is infinitely more toxic than 'complaining' about first world problems

That's just like, your opinion man.

>Complaining about the ergonomics

Look, complaining about work is a typical first world problem, sure. And of course we're all lucky to do the work we do and not live in [wherever.]

Complaining about 20% taxes on $200k of a ~$700k windfall is truly more like a .00001% issue and is pretty obtuse by any measure.

You wouldn't raise an eyebrow, or have any negative reaction to someone making $400k / year bitterly complaining that they have to pay taxes on it? I don't know anyone who wouldn't think that was obnoxious.

>he was describing the economics of his choices.

Sort of, in a fairly facile and borderline deceptive manner.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homes are important to people and they tend to buy as good as they can afford. When employment is stable and interest rates are low people will spend more because they can and feel safe doing so. Early movers purchase a higher grade of home than they could have previously. Eventually this shifts the market as a whole as income distribution remains stable. Then people buy the same house they would have previously at a…

Isn't it inherently bad to buy "as good as you can afford"? Employment is rarely stable throughout a 30-year period. Shouldn't people be much more careful when maxing out their mortgage relative to 'the good times'?

As good as you can afford would be fine. The problem is mortgages and the fact that people are buying more than they can afford. They're buying as much as they will be able to afford over the next 30 years. We've developed a system were some people make large amounts of money by creating the fiction that housing should be as expensive as it is.

There's a lot of evidence that shows that for every dollar of loans made available to students, the price of education rises, and that's a system without supply/demand dynamics since admissions aren't (supposed to be) based on a bidding process. It seems only reasonable to conclude that the availability of mortgages has similarly increased the price of housing. It's a hidden cost of our housing market that banks (and a few others) profit by. The banks loan fictional money, created out of thin air thanks to fractional lending requirements, and collect a percentage of that back every year on a house that only costs what it does because of that loan. Without mortgages, people would be forced to save up and the price of housing would be governed more by the cost of actually constructing houses and the amount that people were able to save before buying rather than a percentage of their income over the next 30 years.

Think, for example, if banks decided to change the standard loan time from 30 years to 40 years. What would happen to housing prices in areas with somewhat constrained supply? Homebuyers would still look at monthly payments and buy as much house as they could afford. So housing prices would increase accordingly and instead of mortgaging 30 years of our futures, we'd be mortgaging 40. We'd be buying the same houses and banks would be making more money. Change 30 years to 20 years and you'd get a similar drop in housing prices.

More than any other thing that we spend money on these days, housing prices have been decoupled from their cost of production and banks are largely the ones skimming that difference between what housing should cost and what it actually costs.

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