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We're officially launching UBI

givedirectly.org

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Re: We're officially launching UBI

#51

Post by skybrian »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #28

Like others have said, pilot programs are a poor trial for UBI. You're creating wealth for select individuals (even a village), so you aren't dealing with economic issues such as inflation. For example, read about Mansa Musa, who gave away so much gold in his pilgrimage to Mecca in the 1300s that he caused devaluation of money (hyperinflation) for nearly 10 years [1]. The huge influx of "free" money caused lasting da…

Better to model this as a change in spending patterns, not an increase in the money supply. It results in more broad-based spending on low-end goods and less on luxury goods. (In the US this would be good for Walmart and their suppliers.)

Also, inflation happens when supply can't keep up with demand. It doesn't happen when businesses can adjust by making more stuff.

An example of supply-limited inflation would be housing in some areas, but this would be countered by making it more affordable to live in lower cost areas since UBI makes people less dependent on jobs. (Consider how social security affects Florida.)

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#52

Post by [deleted] »

whb07 wrote: post #32

I wonder what the differences are between UBI and the day to day life’s of people who get straight cash payments for being citizens like: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Native American tribesmen with successful casinos etc. To my knowledge, it ain’t all sunshine and rainbows (technical term) for them either. They suffer stagnation, heavy dependency into oil money(for those in the Middle East), and it’s dsfinitely a time bomb whi…

[deleted]

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#53

Post by pc86 »

rory096 wrote: post #45
mbil wrote: post #36

Here's more info about the program https://www.givedirectly.org/basic-income We will assess the impact of a basic income against a broad set of metrics, including: - economic status (income, assets, standard of living) - time use (work, education, leisure, community involvement) - risk-taking (migrating, starting businesses) - gender relations (especially female empowerment) - aspirations and outlook on life

And here's what they're paying out: Long-term basic income: 40 villages with recipients receiving roughly $0.75 (nominal) per adult per day, delivered monthly for 12 years Short-term basic income: 80 villages with recipients receiving the same monthly amount, but only for 2 years Lump sum payments: 80 villages with recipients receiving a lump sum payment equivalent to the total value of payments of the short-term str…

[removed: I'm dumb.]

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#55

Post by clay_to_n »

whb07 wrote: post #32

I wonder what the differences are between UBI and the day to day life’s of people who get straight cash payments for being citizens like: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Native American tribesmen with successful casinos etc. To my knowledge, it ain’t all sunshine and rainbows (technical term) for them either. They suffer stagnation, heavy dependency into oil money(for those in the Middle East), and it’s dsfinitely a time bomb whi…

There's a recent article from wired exploring how it's affected the Cherokee Nation: https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effect...

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#56

Post by rory096 »

pc86 wrote: post #53
rory096 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And here's what they're paying out: Long-term basic income: 40 villages with recipients receiving roughly $0.75 (nominal) per adult per day, delivered monthly for 12 years Short-term basic income: 80 villages with recipients receiving the same monthly amount, but only for 2 years Lump sum payments: 80 villages with recipients receiving a lump sum payment equivalent to the total value of payments of the short-term str…

[removed: I'm dumb.]

It's Kenya, not Kansas.

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#57

Post by shkkmo »

moduspol wrote: post #27
chatmasta wrote: post #22

How can you meaningfully experiment with UBI if the “BI” is not even universal ? My understanding is that many of the criticisms of UBI are based on externalities that would only become manifest in a meaningfully large population. For example, price increases and inflation might arise from everyone having extra money. If you’re only testing UBI on a small population, then 1) it’s not even universal, and 2) there will…

I agree that it's tough to measure "success," but at least it would be presumably easy to measure failure. If we see exactly what opponents claim will happen, it would suggest a more strict implementation might be worse. My concern is that with this we're likely looking at an even worse version of the problems seen with sending shoes to Africa [1]. Over the duration of this experiment, it's quite possible you'll crea…

This is the exact opposite of that. When you send free goods into an economy, you inhibit demand which in turn inhibits economic growth. When you send money into an economy, in increase demand and it will have the opposite effect.

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#58

Post by pc86 »

quaunaut wrote: post #16
eksu wrote: post #4

Can someone explain to me why UBI is preferable to a negative income tax? I don’t get why we’ve come up with a worse version of a 40 year old idea. Are these two ships passing in the night or were there some perceived problems with Negative Income Tax that UBI is supposed to solve.

From what I've understood, it solves multiple problems that the negative income tax didn't, because it didn't apply to everyone. To clarify for those coming later: The negative income tax is the idea that beneath a certain amount of income, you actually are given money by the government. If you're over the amount, you get nothing, and in fact are taxed a portion of your income. Depending on how far beneath the amount…

In the US at least all the rates are marginal. The only "disincentive to work" is completely psychological and made up. If you make more money, you get more money. There is no financial scenario where you make $1 more and lose anything close to $1 in government benefits, tax credits, etc.

I was on unemployment for approximately 6 months in 2008 and every $100 I made only decreased my unemployment benefit by $15-20. Anyone who thinks they can't work because their benefits will go away has such a passing familiarity with their own actual finances UBI or NIT won't help them anyway.

Re: We're officially launching UBI

#59

Post by [deleted] »

pc86 wrote: post #53
rory096 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And here's what they're paying out: Long-term basic income: 40 villages with recipients receiving roughly $0.75 (nominal) per adult per day, delivered monthly for 12 years Short-term basic income: 80 villages with recipients receiving the same monthly amount, but only for 2 years Lump sum payments: 80 villages with recipients receiving a lump sum payment equivalent to the total value of payments of the short-term str…

[removed: I'm dumb.]

[deleted]
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