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The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

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Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#81
post #17

I don't get it. When prices are high, it's a housing crisis. When prices are going down, it's a housing crisis. It's almost as if news articles just need to be written regardless of the reason.

Maybe housing shouldn't be a market system. Instead, housing should be free and landlords should be abolished.

Oh I'm up for that my dude. Basic Maslow pyramid necessities should indeed be free and freely available. Food, water and shelter are top of that list.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We got rid of mortgage interest relief in the UK so I wouldn't rule it out completely.

Doing so cratered the housing market in '89. Other countries watched and learned.

I think it was more to do with soaring interest rates. I remember it all rather well as I had just bought my first house.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#83
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also to add to that, an extreme number of new people immigrating to Sweden, especially under 2014-2016 [1] (which is my personal belief that is the leading cause to the biggest increases in prices). Many municipalities also letting up to 25% of these new people jump ahead the queues leaving Swedes to be even more forced to buy an apartment instead of renting [2]. Also in Sweden for apartments, you don't own it. Most…

> Also in Sweden for apartments, you don't own it. Most apartments for sale is so called "Bostadsrätter" which means you own a percentage of the association that owns the apartment building(s). If the association/organization has a bad economy and can't pay the debt they could be forced to sell the entire apartment building(s) and you'd loose your apartment while still having a loan to the bank. In the US we call the…

Some associations in Sweden does not own the land either (renting from the city) and that rent was increased just some time ago.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Varies, of course. Average house is basically $100 to $350k but the average in Stockholm is probably around $1M depending on what areas you count. Not sure what the average salary is, but loan caps now are ~5 times the household (gross) salary. which sets the equation somewhat. So a couple buying a stockholm home at $1M today (which isnt an uncommon price) would be borrowing say 75-80% of that, so making at least $1M…

I'm assuming that $80k/year is gross? Given Sweden has high income taxes, borrowing say $800k on a $40k net salary (for a house!) seems like extremely bad financial management. Which sane person who is good with money does that? That sets you up for a life of misery (and not unrealistically, an underwater house during your lifetime).

Yes gross. $80k gross is around $53k net (depends on where you live but roughly). Now, remember that reason we are in this mess is because interest rates are so low. We still have pretty low living costs. Our $1M house at 80% is pretty cheap, due to low interest rates. Now, everyone knows interest rates can and will be higher in the future, but people have to buy on the current market regardless (And everyone seems to accept to have less spending money when interest rates double or triple).

The calculation now for our couple with $100k household net income isn't all that bad. The monthly "rent" for the house is between $2k and $3k of which $1.2k is down payment ($24k-36k year). Double the interest rates from 2% to 4% and it's $3k to $4k/month. I think spending over 50% your net income on living costs is proabably a limit to look out for - and that will certainly happen to these people should interest rates go north of 5% or there about. We also need to remember that in Sweden people generally don't save up for a rainy day. I'm not saving for retirement, kids edication, risk of being ill etc. So in a nanny state the equation is slightly different than in say the US.

> Which sane person who is good with money does that?

It doesn't matter so long as it is at least one person in the auction for each house does it. If there are no homes to rent and nothing is built, there will be competition for the existing homes on the market.

> not unrealistically, an underwater house during your lifetime

This is definitely a risk. And banks are now lending less and less. With a 25% down payment the bank will know the hose can take a 25% correction and still be over water. But the scary bit is of course that if there is a 20% correction, no one can move, and no one will consume anything for a very long time, which will lead to pretty significant economic fallout.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#85
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your use of the term "obsession" implies a degree of irrationality. Many people, myself included, would contend that the desire to own your own home is eminently sensible.

Jeez, nobody said the desire to own your home was irrational, by definition. You can have a rational desire to own a home or you can have an irrational obsession. Irrational obsession would include things like when you prioritize homeownership over financial security and other basic necessities like healthcare or food. For example I know someone who gave up health insurance to buy house - and she readily admits this.

Correct, nobody said that the desire to own your home was axiomatically irrational. I didn't claim that anyone did. What I took issue with was the statement that the Irish populace have an obsessive (i.e. irrational) focus on property ownership.

We do prefer to own our own homes, but that preference is not evidence of a national personality disorder.

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#86

When will we learn that a "strong" housing market is not necessarily a good thing? High housing prices are great for those who already owned houses but terrible for everyone else (e.g. the entire generations born after prices became inflated). Not to mention people are greedy and will over leverage themselves when interest rates are good. No country should let the "landed gentry" hold them hostage over interest rates…

I agree. The article isn't very clear on what the problem would be, though it does mention deflation. Deflation is bad by axiom, and we must be pathologically afraid of it. If housing prices sink enough, that may mean that the overall inflation rate turns negative, which is deflation, and thus bad. Even if this "bad" thing, in this case, would just mean that people could consume, save, and invest more.

People don't consume more in a deflationary world, per the economists, because that dollar you've got today is worth more tomorrow, so you put off as many purchases as possible. Fewer people would take out loans as well, because the loan would become harder and harder to repay over it's life (which means fewer opportunities for investors)

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#87
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The landlord is also getting the “30% rebate” by claiming interest as a business expense to offset rent revenue.

Yes, but landlords also pay taxes on profits. As a homeowner, you won't pay tax on the difference between rental cost and your mortgage interest payment.

In some countries you get taxed on the imputed rent (the amount of rent that you would be paying gets added to your taxable income).

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/03/taxing-homeown...

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a strong housing market may be the result of lack of productive capital, but I think it has more to do with supply and demand. Most average people pay for a house using a mortgage payment, so when buying a house, they'll be looking for a house that has an affordable mortgage payment. Let's say Joe wants to spend / can afford a $1000/month mortgage payment. If interest rates are 5% and the maximum mortgage per…

Homes are important to people and they tend to buy as good as they can afford. When employment is stable and interest rates are low people will spend more because they can and feel safe doing so. Early movers purchase a higher grade of home than they could have previously. Eventually this shifts the market as a whole as income distribution remains stable. Then people buy the same house they would have previously at a…

Isn't it inherently bad to buy "as good as you can afford"? Employment is rarely stable throughout a 30-year period. Shouldn't people be much more careful when maxing out their mortgage relative to 'the good times'?

Re: The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Country's Currency

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We got rid of mortgage interest relief in the UK so I wouldn't rule it out completely.

Doing so cratered the housing market in '89. Other countries watched and learned.

We also got rid of it in Ireland when the housing market had just crashed. House prices are now rising alarmingly quickly again, regardless.
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