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UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what you're referring to. The whole argument about the referendum being non-binding. As a matter of democratic government, the people were given a say in a referendum. That referendum was, as far as I can tell, properly conducted according to the rules known in advance. By the standards of any national vote, including things like general elections, the turnout was high, and while the margin was not huge, the…

> As a matter of law, it seems our highest authorities accept that Parliament currently has no mechanism to legislate for a binding referendum. I don't understand what you are basing this statement on. In the AV referendum, the act basically said "if the vote comes out yes, the minister must do X; otherwise, the minister must refrain from doing X but must do Y". This is really not complicated, and as we are agreed, P…

OK, I think perhaps we've been talking slightly at cross-purposes here.

I realise now that you're talking about making the referendum binding on the government, so currently the May administration. I agree that it would have been better to include those kinds of provisions explicitly in the EU Referendum Act.

Just to be clear, the moral issue I'm talking about is making the referendum binding on Parliament as well. In terms of the legitimacy of our broader system of government, I believe that not even Parliament should have the power to overrule a properly conducted national referendum. I also don't believe it would be ethical for them to do so now, even if we accept that they have that power under our current legal system, unless for example there is evidence that the popular view has changed significantly and another referendum or similarly authoritative measure dictates a change of course.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#102
post #100
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is only odd in that it gives a leaving member that changes it mind some leverage against the EU, an escape hatch effectively. The author of the document and others have also admitted that nobody thought the document would ever be put to use - it is not a battle tested document. And it's silent on whether it can be unilaterally revoked or not. But as a matter of law the weight of opinion leans in favour of the opti…

All of which is more room for playing politics, rather than the purpose which seemed obvious to me - a statement that a state is in the process of leaving the EU, which allows for a period of time for parties to negotiate the most advantageous future relationship for both of them. When you change it from that pure form, you give opportunity for all sorts of perverse motivations to creep in.

Perhaps but there are plenty of scenarios in which unilateral revocation of an intent to leave is entirely justified. What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states? What if the leaving member endures a change in government and comes to a different view? What if unilateral revocation is the only means to save millions of jobs and avoid economic carnage? And what protections would the leaving member have (still a fully signed up paying member during the 2 year time frame mind you) if the EU27 wasn't negotiating in good faith?

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#103
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of which is more room for playing politics, rather than the purpose which seemed obvious to me - a statement that a state is in the process of leaving the EU, which allows for a period of time for parties to negotiate the most advantageous future relationship for both of them. When you change it from that pure form, you give opportunity for all sorts of perverse motivations to creep in.

Perhaps but there are plenty of scenarios in which unilateral revocation of an intent to leave is entirely justified. What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states? What if the leaving member endures a change in government and comes to a different view? What if unilateral revocation is the only means to save millions of jobs and avoid econo…

> What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states?

That would be unfortunate, and would represent the organisation deliberately harming itself. I think this is less likely under a scheme where unilateral revocation is impossible, as there is less incentive to posture and attempt to force a reversal.

> What if the leaving member endures a change in government and comes to a different view?

Then they seek the agreement of the member states to maintain membership or to rejoin.

> What if unilateral revocation is the only means to save millions of jobs and avoid economic carnage?

This sort of thing must be taken into account before filing the intent to leave.

> And what protections would the leaving member have (still a fully signed up paying member during the 2 year time frame mind you) if the EU27 wasn't negotiating in good faith?

At the point that A50 has already been filed, then it's in everyone's interest to negotiate in good faith (before even mentioning that such an approach is codified in the treaties anyway). The only situation I can see where it could be advantageous not to treat the leaving party with good grace and attempt a mutually beneficial outcome would be if you are trying to scare other potential leavers into line. However I don't think that behaviour would be affected by whether the notification is unilaterally reversible.

Basically - I really do feel like this being a one-way process reduces motives for either party to screw around.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#104
post #66

So I've been watching (and shaking my head) at this whole Brexit fiasco with both some personal interest (UK and thus current EU citizen) and more general interest in that the Leave vote was basically a protest vote against immigration that seemed to basically get out of hand. We can peg a lot of the blame for this on David Cameron who initiated a referendum (I assume he thought would never pass) without any plan to…

>The net effect was a lot of poorer EU citizens did go to the UK to essentially go on welfare because it was more than they could reasonably earn (if they could even get jobs) in their home countries.

And the UK could have easily told them off.

[2]

>"The Court of Justice points out that, under the [EU freedom of movement] directive, the host member state is not obliged to grant social assistance during the first three months of residence," the ruling reads.

>In case people stay longer than three months but less than five years and have no job, they "must have sufficient resources on their own," the court added.

>"A member state must therefore have the possibility of refusing to grant social benefits to economically inactive Union citizens who exercise their right to freedom of movement solely in order to obtain another member state’s social assistance although they do not have sufficient resources to claim a right of residence," the judges ruled.

>And that situation is untenable.

[3]

EEA (EU+) migrants are contributing more than native citizens, if you believe a study cited by the bbc

>So now the EU doesn't want any discussions on trade and other issues until the UK agrees to a "divorce settlement". The problems with this tactic are that the UK handing over huge sums of cash to the EU was second to immigration as a reason for people to vote Leave and, more importantly, how can you agree on a price for something and then go on to negotiate what you've bought?

Afaik the EU position is, that the divorce bill isn't a price for what the UK will get, it is what the UK owes from its time as a member.

[1]

>The EU hasn’t officially asked for any particular sum of money, but does say that “the United Kingdom must honour its share of the financing of all the obligations undertaken while it was a member”.

>The EU actually needs the money from the UK to balance their own budget so the EU has got a lot to lose here.

But if the EU can deal with the loss of UK money, this would also end the whole UK special deal stuff.

[1] https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

[2] https://euobserver.com/justice/126466

[3] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-24813467

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#105
post #90
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.businessinsider.com/legal-advice-brexit-can-be-re... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/brexit-date... More nuance: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/63955?lang=en In short, the author of Article 50 disagrees.

Except that the author didn't actually write that it's reversible in any way. That may have been the intent, but that's not what the actual text says, and that's not what all of the Treaty of Lisbon's signers agreed to. Indeed, the text is so clear, it's hard to argue that there is any actual room for disagreement: 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the…

I guess that, if the member state really wanted to reverse the process, the latter case could be turned into a sort of "state of leaving the EU until re-accession". So it could be agreed that technically, the Treaties would cease to apply at some well-defined point in time, but at the same moment they would start applying again.

A fun question would be whether a re-acceding country would lose its current privileges and its opt-outs of the Euro and Schengen.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#106
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps but there are plenty of scenarios in which unilateral revocation of an intent to leave is entirely justified. What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states? What if the leaving member endures a change in government and comes to a different view? What if unilateral revocation is the only means to save millions of jobs and avoid econo…

> What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states? That would be unfortunate, and would represent the organisation deliberately harming itself. I think this is less likely under a scheme where unilateral revocation is impossible, as there is less incentive to posture and attempt to force a reversal. > What if the leaving member endures a chan…

You're not actually addressing the myriad of cases in which the principle of unilateral revocation is warranted. You're merely asserting that it's improbable that member states would negotiate in bad faith or vote in a hostile manner contrary to the leaving member's interests.

A50 was not just constituted to protect the remaining members when a member departs, it was to show members that leaving is possible. If the leaving member has no power in this process and with bilateral revocation the UK in this case has very little leverage, it precisely sets up the circumstances in which any number of member states can muck up the process in a way that harms the welfare of the leaving country. That can't be right.

Unilateral revocation in the only way it is possible keeps the EU27 honest if it were intent on not being reasonable. Mind you there are plenty of people in the UK who feel the EU is not negotiating in good faith as it stands. Unilateral revocation certainly diminishes their leverage and it is undesirable to have to deal with it from the EU27's point of view, but this is a good thing. The EU27 should not have absolute power over a member who expressed a desire to leave.

The only scenario in which unilateral revocation encourages shenanigans is a hypothetical scenario that simply doesn't work. As I've explained in a previous comment, if the leaving member initiates revocation as a means of resetting the negotiation window or as a means of exacting new concessions, it will backfire, the benefits would be nullified and it would be a stupendously high risk to take. After all, if the UK negotiates in bad faith, the EU27 would contest it in the CJEU with the possibility of losing. It would be entirely unprepared to take the blow of a cliff edge Brexit and kill any chances of a favourable FTA from happening for years if not decades.

Note that in all cases bilateral revocation is preferable and probably is how things would go, but you don't need to stretch your imagination that far to imagine whether unilateral revocation should be a right when only one of the EU27 is needed to block bilateral revocation and send the UK into unmitigated chaos.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#107
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What if a band of member states block a reasonable deal from happening even against the interest of the other member states? That would be unfortunate, and would represent the organisation deliberately harming itself. I think this is less likely under a scheme where unilateral revocation is impossible, as there is less incentive to posture and attempt to force a reversal. > What if the leaving member endures a chan…

You're not actually addressing the myriad of cases in which the principle of unilateral revocation is warranted. You're merely asserting that it's improbable that member states would negotiate in bad faith or vote in a hostile manner contrary to the leaving member's interests. A50 was not just constituted to protect the remaining members when a member departs, it was to show members that leaving is possible. If the l…

I think we see this very differently, article 50 isn't, to my mind, an expression of a desire to leave, but the actual start of the process.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#108
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not actually addressing the myriad of cases in which the principle of unilateral revocation is warranted. You're merely asserting that it's improbable that member states would negotiate in bad faith or vote in a hostile manner contrary to the leaving member's interests. A50 was not just constituted to protect the remaining members when a member departs, it was to show members that leaving is possible. If the l…

I think we see this very differently, article 50 isn't, to my mind, an expression of a desire to leave, but the actual start of the process.

A50 is specifically worded as to notify an intent to leave. Intent can change, the A50 text sets nothing in stone other than the fact that barring any further intervention the exit date ends 2 years from the notification date. That's it.

I think you're discounting the fact that up to the departure date the UK is a full member with the ability to exercise its rights, including the right to change its mind, especially if the conditions merit it. We both agree that all parties must conduct the A50 process in good faith. You haven't convinced me why the option of unilateral revocation discourages good faith negotiation, or how it encourages bad faith negotiation.

Note that the legal arguments in favour of unilateral revocation specifically relate back to other EU laws, international law and the EU principle of closer union.

Re: UK parliament to get binding vote on final Brexit deal

#109
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> of a 72% turnout If the other 28% disagree, then they really should have voted against...

It shouldn't have been a vote without requiring a Supermajority and it certainly shouldn't have been a vote without a third, alternative option.

It shouldn't have been a vote without an actual /plan/. "Would you like to 1) no change or 2) SUMMARY OF A DETAILED PLAN INCLUDING E.G. WHETHER THE U.K. REMAINS IN THE SINGLE MARKET OR THE CUSTOMS UNION OR HAS A HARD 1980s STYLE BORDER WITH IRELAND ETC" is one thing. "Would you like 1) no change or 2) some vague thing everyone can project their desires upon and scrawl fantasies on the side of a bus" is not a great way to make policy decisions.
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