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Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

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Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#11

Their real estate development boom is largely supported by Chinese investors. That is, buying into a Development Co. in AUS and having an Aussie run it. In Sydney I counted 50+ cranes earlier this year. Will the demand for X amount of new towers continue? Will buyers support it or become Miami 2.0? How many empty condos are there in Miami right now? They are also very prideful about the state of their economy.

Because Sydney barely had apartments until recently. Cross the bridge and it looks like a country village 3km from the city. Not many development sites and houses are very tightly held so it's tough to acquire houses for demolition and agglomeration into a development site. If Sydney is going to be a real city it needs the development that's happening now.

I've also noticed cranes here are used for midrise apartment block construction which I'd never see for comparable building in the US. There's a lot of safety rules and a strict building code so maybe that's why.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#12
post #10

A long and perhaps terrifying article. With all the statistics, a strong case is made that Australia is in deep, deep trouble. What I'm having trouble with is understanding why this is not talked about more in more main stream avenues?

Barrie's company Freelancer.com was just outed as a bunch of scam artists on HN front page yesterday, now he's an economic mastermind?

This whole article is basically "the entire world economy is a house of cards wtf!" Yeah, no shit. We've known that for a decade now. Australia rises and falls with the world economy and if/when China crashes things will be ugly everywhere.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#13
post #8

People have been crying "bubble" my entire life, and I'm yet to see one actually "burst". The only things close to bubble bursts were scam driven things like the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA.

How was the property market crash in the US not a case of a bubble bursting? Some other obvious cases would be Ireland and Spain around the same time. How they were inflated and what triggered the collapses is irrelevant. The pattern is the same - speculation drives prices to unrealistic levels and eventually a major correction occurs.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#15

> Indeed Digital Finance Analytics estimated in a October 2017 report that 910,000 households are now estimated to be in mortgage stress where net income does not covering ongoing costs. This has skyrocketed up 50% in less than a year and now represents 29.2% of all households in Australia. As of 2011 there were 7.7 million households in Australia (according to the ABS) so how does 910,000 (or 888,207 in the table) b…

The more I read this article, the less I'm convinced... Another "odd" bit (imo).

> This brings me onto Australia’s third largest export which is $22 billion in “education-related travel services”. Ask the average person in the street, and they would have no idea what that is and, at least in some part, it is an $18.8 billion dollar immigration industry dressed up as “education”.

> While some of these students are studying technical degrees that are vitally needed to power the future of the economy, a cynic would say that the majority of this program is designed as a crutch to prop up housing prices and government revenue from taxation in a flagging economy. After all, it doesn’t look that hard to borrow 90% of a property’s value from Australian lenders on a 457 visa.

A 457 visa doesn't have anything to do with a student visa... This comment feels like intentional misdirection, because those two things are not at all related. (A 457 visa is a skilled worker visa - although as with all skilled work visas, it has got it's own controversy and, as the article points out (in an underhanded way I would say, again...), until recently had some very odd "skills" (and probably still does...))

> How much the banks will be left to carry when the market turns and these students flee the burden of negative equity is anyone’s guess.

AFAIK, if you're a temporary resident in Australia getting a 90% loan (and even if you're not a temporary resident in some (many?) cases) there's a requirement to get Lenders Mortgage Insurance. So... The insurer will be left to carry said burden, not the bank? Unless my understanding of LMIs is off. And again, they're not a student if they're on a 457 visa, so this is all a bit inaccurate anyway...

Back to the "education-related travel services" side of that quoting, friends of mine work in the Higher Education industry and it actually is huge business for them getting international students. And their respective organisations make a lot of money from it. (And it's not just higher education, even schools in Australia make a lot of money from international students.)

And, in my opinion more importantly, this is an export industry, so it doesn't matter that only "some of these students are studying technical degrees that are vitally needed to power the future of the economy". It's not about those degrees being vitally important to Australia's economy, because it's an export... (And the underhanded nature of that line is a bit much for me...)

> You now know what all these tinpot “english”, “IT” and “business colleges” that have popped up downtown are about. They’re not about providing quality education, they are about gaming the immigration system.

Sure, I mean, I don't know how technically accurate this statement is so taking it at face value, just because there are some dodgy education providers, the whole 18 billion dollar industry is now denigrated to an "immigration industry"? Apparently there are 6 Australian Universities in the top 100 worldwide [0], but no, the whole show is actually _mostly_ just an "immigration industry"?

("Ask the average person in the street, and they would have no idea what that is" - a huge number of my friends know that the Australian economy makes a heap of money from foreign students studying here, maybe they don't know it's the third biggest export, but still... Again with the underhanded language...)

This article is quite grating...

[0]: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankin...

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#16
Another bubble is agricultural land prices in the United States. This was such a foreign thing to me when I first heard it, but it’s so overvalued. If you look at a 20 year graph you’ll see it barely even dipped during the 2008 recession.

That, combined with any downturn is going to see a bunch of Baby Boomers sell their houses to make up for their lost 401k money only to find that no millennials (and certainly no millennials without jobs) can or want to buy their houses.

Keep in mind, unlike the stock market which has dozens of safeguards and controls, the housing market has exactly zero safeguards. Think about that for a second. The housing market is operating off the same system Wall Street basically had in 1873.

Bubbles certainly do come and go, but the larger issue here, the one that will compound the bubble greatly, is the lack of political resolve to tackle it. A bailout is a political no-go. It looks like the full force of this bubble will have to be ridden out.

If anything 2008 was WWI, and the bubble coming up will be WWII.

tip: Start a local facebook group. The amount you can save in borrowing power tools is amazing...

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#17
post #13
post #8

People have been crying "bubble" my entire life, and I'm yet to see one actually "burst". The only things close to bubble bursts were scam driven things like the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA.

How was the property market crash in the US not a case of a bubble bursting? Some other obvious cases would be Ireland and Spain around the same time. How they were inflated and what triggered the collapses is irrelevant. The pattern is the same - speculation drives prices to unrealistic levels and eventually a major correction occurs.

Australia was pretty much unaffected by all that. And it seems OP mentioned that subprime bubble.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#18
post #17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How was the property market crash in the US not a case of a bubble bursting? Some other obvious cases would be Ireland and Spain around the same time. How they were inflated and what triggered the collapses is irrelevant. The pattern is the same - speculation drives prices to unrealistic levels and eventually a major correction occurs.

Australia was pretty much unaffected by all that. And it seems OP mentioned that subprime bubble.

OP was implying that because the US property boom and bust involved deception ("scam driven") that it wasn't a real bubble - only close to a bubble.

OP never mentioned Aus - only that they had heard a lot of talk of bubbles but hadn't identified any. I was just giving a few recent examples that I'm sure most would agree qualify as such.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#19
post #18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia was pretty much unaffected by all that. And it seems OP mentioned that subprime bubble.

OP was implying that because the US property boom and bust involved deception ("scam driven") that it wasn't a real bubble - only close to a bubble. OP never mentioned Aus - only that they had heard a lot of talk of bubbles but hadn't identified any. I was just giving a few recent examples that I'm sure most would agree qualify as such.

This whole thread is based on an article about Aus. I think it's reasonable to take people's comments in that context unless otherwise specified.

Re: Australia's Economy Is a House of Cards

#20
post #8

People have been crying "bubble" my entire life, and I'm yet to see one actually "burst". The only things close to bubble bursts were scam driven things like the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA.

    People have been crying "bubble" my entire life, and 
    I'm yet to see one actually "burst".
I gather you didn't work in tech in 2000?
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