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Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

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Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#41

Post by deadmetheny »

bdamm wrote: post #30
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To a fish, we're aliens. It must be terrifying.

I get the comparison, but personally I think it only works if we found tool-using behavior in aquatic species that shows they are actively modifying their environment to improve their survivability, so that they can have some meaningful basis for judging us as like them. Such as dolphins using agriculture. Otherwise we're just part of the freak show up where there is more light and less pressure.

Octopuses have been observed using tools, and we're very quickly determining that they are extremely intelligent. If they had longer lifespans and weren't solitary, who knows what they may have become.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#42

Post by XR0CSWV3h3kZWg »

drewrv wrote: post #36
delecti wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well one factor would go up (planets with life 1>2) and another would go down (planets with life developing intelligence 1>0.5), resulting in a wash. It does move towards giving additional degrees of freedom on those terms though, making the equation as a whole slightly less pseudo-science.

It would only be a wash if you currently believe the chance of developing intelligence is > 50%. To me, the fact that intelligence is rare on earth makes me think the odds of developing intelligence elsewhere is rare too.

Depends on what you mean by Intelligence. We see tool use in many species, yet none of them are sending space ships. Maybe we should include an "industrialization" or "super-organization" to the criteria of aliens we'd want to trade with.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#43

Post by Houshalter »

drewrv wrote: post #15

If alien life were discovered within our solar system, I wonder what the implications for the Drake Equation would be. Assuming panspermia is ruled out, the fact that abiogenesis occured twice within a seemingly ordinary system would imply life is incredibly common.

Nick Bostrom says it's one of the worst discoveries we could make. Especially if the life is complex like animal life. That would greatly increase the probability that the great filter is ahead of us instead of behind us.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#44

Post by mirimir »

mojomark wrote: post #32
nerfhammer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any light down there? Would they have eyes? Stars etc. might be more like totally abstract theoretical concepts like quantum physics is to us, or at least X-rays. They might not be able to literally look up and see things, having mostly only sonar, hearing, and touch senses; handfuls of surface-explorers wearing special environment suits report the utterly strange sensation that space seems almost totally tw…

The sun isn't the only source of radiant energy (visible light, IR, UV, etc) in a planetary system. Chemoluminescence and indeed heat itself (infrared (IR) emission) are other sources. I would think that living in a thermal environment closed off from the sun, creatures would be likely to evolve bioluminescent emitters/receptors or even fully developed IR Eyes in order to gain survival advantage. 1.) https://voices.n…

Indeed, deep ocean life is very strange.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#45

Post by aalleavitch »

Houshalter wrote: post #43
drewrv wrote: post #15

If alien life were discovered within our solar system, I wonder what the implications for the Drake Equation would be. Assuming panspermia is ruled out, the fact that abiogenesis occured twice within a seemingly ordinary system would imply life is incredibly common.

Nick Bostrom says it's one of the worst discoveries we could make. Especially if the life is complex like animal life. That would greatly increase the probability that the great filter is ahead of us instead of behind us.

Unless we find out that for some reason all life develops at more or less the same rate from the beginning of the universe. In which case our future could be very crowded.

That, or the window of technological development that we can detect and are capable of recognizing as intelligent is very small. It's possible that superintelligence is all over the place, but we're unable to perceive or comprehend it, in the same way that a nematode is completely oblivious to human society. Once a society creates superintelligence, they might even "clean up" after themselves, so that traces of previous stages of their civilization aren't available for us to observe.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#46

Post by Density »

delecti wrote: post #23
pavel_lishin wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on their intelligence if we find them, right? They might be intelligent and tool-using, but hampered by their aquatic origins.

The relevant terms (paraphrased) are: number that can have life, percent of those which do have life, percent of those which have intelligent life, percent of those that release signals into space. So that would just move the same math down one more step. Twice the number of planets which have life (whether you adjust "can have life" or just the percent of the above which do), but that cancels out with half as many e…

Intelligent and releasing within our immediate galactic vicinity.

I don't understand why the aliens would waste power beaming directed and powerful signals into space.

Do you think the BBC bothers broadcasting enough signal for the Martians to listen to their radio? I don't think that's a very profitable business model.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#47

Post by dogma1138 »

debatem1 wrote: post #37
dogma1138 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Underwater technological civilization isn’t possible, tool making is very limited, no fire, no complex chemistry, no real evolutionary path to a technological advance society without uplifting. While possibly there aren’t that many restrictions on where life can evolve and even where can different levels of intelligence can evolve there are likely quite a bit of restrictions on where and how technological intelligenc…

Why are you confident that underwater technical civilization isn't possible? It would seem to me that techniques like hydraulics would emerge quickly, and large pressure and temperature differentials over small distances are considerably more common and easier to harness underwater than above. Fabrication is certainly harder, but not impossibly so. Some weapons like thrusting spears might be easier to make and more a…

Because show me an evolutionary path into fine tool making and complex chemistry.

Chemistry is virtually impossible underwater, were not talking about an octopus using a stick even some birds use tools that's not exactly what we would call a technological intelligence.

No fire, no smelting no metalworking, no complex materials.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#48

Post by StephenMelon »

dogma1138 wrote: post #47
debatem1 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you confident that underwater technical civilization isn't possible? It would seem to me that techniques like hydraulics would emerge quickly, and large pressure and temperature differentials over small distances are considerably more common and easier to harness underwater than above. Fabrication is certainly harder, but not impossibly so. Some weapons like thrusting spears might be easier to make and more a…

Because show me an evolutionary path into fine tool making and complex chemistry. Chemistry is virtually impossible underwater, were not talking about an octopus using a stick even some birds use tools that's not exactly what we would call a technological intelligence. No fire, no smelting no metalworking, no complex materials.

If you can’t do an experiment in your own environment, you improvise. Humans have done experiments in space that couldn’t be done on earth, so an advanced aquatic species could do experiments above the surface, given enough time, intelligence and inclination.

Intelligence might also take different forms, so an ocean-sized equivalent of a termite colony comprised of specialised molluscs that were collectively intelligent and had selectively bred themselves into specialised roles for millennia could achieve a great deal?

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#49

Post by yakz »

Houshalter wrote: post #43
drewrv wrote: post #15

If alien life were discovered within our solar system, I wonder what the implications for the Drake Equation would be. Assuming panspermia is ruled out, the fact that abiogenesis occured twice within a seemingly ordinary system would imply life is incredibly common.

Nick Bostrom says it's one of the worst discoveries we could make. Especially if the life is complex like animal life. That would greatly increase the probability that the great filter is ahead of us instead of behind us.

While it's less interesting immediately, it's probably better for us in the long term if we're first.

Re: Chances of E.T. Living Subsurface Ocean of Enceladus Given Major Boost

#50

Post by dogma1138 »

StephenMelon wrote: post #48
dogma1138 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because show me an evolutionary path into fine tool making and complex chemistry. Chemistry is virtually impossible underwater, were not talking about an octopus using a stick even some birds use tools that's not exactly what we would call a technological intelligence. No fire, no smelting no metalworking, no complex materials.

If you can’t do an experiment in your own environment, you improvise. Humans have done experiments in space that couldn’t be done on earth, so an advanced aquatic species could do experiments above the surface, given enough time, intelligence and inclination. Intelligence might also take different forms, so an ocean-sized equivalent of a termite colony comprised of specialised molluscs that were collectively intellig…

We’re talking here about very specific intelligence a technological one.

Humans can do experiments in space because we have the technology to do so, show me an evolutionary path to technology capable of overcoming environmental barriers without fire and chemistry.

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