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Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

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101–110 of 152 posts

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#101
post #95

It took Facebook and Google a while to nail their advertising strategies. FB shares dropped down from an IPO price of $38 to less than $20 at one point. Its a very competitive climate and Snapchat needs to keep innovating, but I wouldn't write Snapchat off too early.

Snapchat+YouTube would be killer combo

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#102
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought many times about world domination of these companies in each of these 4 areas which started their significant presence from year 2000 onwards . Search - Google Shopping - Amazon Social - Facebook Mobile - Apple ( Apple mobile journey started only after year 2000) >The opportunity for creating "new large web companies" has been shut by the entrenched TRIO. > Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. > That means…

Apple does not dominate mobile by any stretch of the imagination, with about 15% market share. Google, on the other hand, is creeping up to monopoly status with Android and its roughly 85% market share.

15%-20% marketshare in the smartphone category and yet they capture ~90% of the profits.

To me, that's definitely a type of domination.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#103
post #95

It took Facebook and Google a while to nail their advertising strategies. FB shares dropped down from an IPO price of $38 to less than $20 at one point. Its a very competitive climate and Snapchat needs to keep innovating, but I wouldn't write Snapchat off too early.

I remember the analysts opinion on Facebook pre-IPO. Virtually no revenue. One year later Facebook presented their first gains. While I was sure Facebook would be able to do it back then, I don't see it with Snap.

They could profit from Snapcash though. How about integrating some Patreon-esque function where you can unlock private feeds by payment/subscription? For some art-forms that could really work out well.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#104
post #16

I still think Snap is a good long play because so far they are the only social network to "get" Augmented Reality. Google has already had multiple AR missteps (Glass, Tango, Pokemon Go via Niantic), Facebook is playing AR copycat, Microsoft's AR is targeting big industry. Snap's entertainment experience puts the viewer in the center of the action, similar to VR 360° experiences and Spectacles is a direct expression o…

First, that's a feature, not a product. Second, there's no barrier to entry there. Facebook's ~10000 engineers can recreate features with amazing swiftness, do it better than the first movers, then spread the feature quickly through its 1 billion+ user social network. If Facebook wants to beat snapchat at the AR game, they will do it when they feel like it. https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/13/instagram-stories-bigger-t…

You mean like how Google+ replaced FB?

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#105
post #99
post #36

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

> start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla Porsche (1931) Nissan (1933) Volkswagen (1937) Toyota (1937) Kia (1944) Hyundai (1947) Honda (1948) Land Rover (1948) SEAT (1950) Lotus (1952) Subaru (1953) Lamborghini (1963) Dozens of Chinese companies in recent years... On the aero side: Antonov (1946) Embraer (1969) Airbus (1970) Diamond (1981) ATR (1981) Cirrus (1984) Bombardier (1989)…

Bombardier bought airplane mfr that was founded in 1940s. Airbus was just pooling of several air companies and expertise in 1970. ATR was founded and backed by another plane company. Etc...

I think your list shows how difficult it is to start a company in these two sectors .

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#106

Snap is extremely valuable, it has the customers everyone wants - it simply doesn't know how to monetize them. Give it time, if someone like me can figure out how to monetize this user base, I am sure, snap can, in time.

So you figured out how to monetize?

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#107
post #95

It took Facebook and Google a while to nail their advertising strategies. FB shares dropped down from an IPO price of $38 to less than $20 at one point. Its a very competitive climate and Snapchat needs to keep innovating, but I wouldn't write Snapchat off too early.

I remember the analysts opinion on Facebook pre-IPO. Virtually no revenue. One year later Facebook presented their first gains. While I was sure Facebook would be able to do it back then, I don't see it with Snap. They could profit from Snapcash though. How about integrating some Patreon-esque function where you can unlock private feeds by payment/subscription? For some art-forms that could really work out well.

"art-forms"

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#108
post #99
post #36

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

> start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla Porsche (1931) Nissan (1933) Volkswagen (1937) Toyota (1937) Kia (1944) Hyundai (1947) Honda (1948) Land Rover (1948) SEAT (1950) Lotus (1952) Subaru (1953) Lamborghini (1963) Dozens of Chinese companies in recent years... On the aero side: Antonov (1946) Embraer (1969) Airbus (1970) Diamond (1981) ATR (1981) Cirrus (1984) Bombardier (1989)…

A lot of these companies are government (or at least government-backed) projects: VW, Embraer, Antonov, Airbus, SEAT, etc. And Japanese situation after WW2 was special. It's like saying that healthcare.gov is a new upcoming web giant.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#109
post #36

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

You're radically exaggerating. Yelp? I don't see how that's a particularly good example. Priceline is 27 times their size in market cap. Let's examine that withering though. Yelp sales by year: 2014: $377 million 2015: $549 million 2016: $713 million 2017: likely ~$850 million Is that massive growth what qualifies as withering these days? How about Zillow? Tracking to $1 billion in sales, growing very nicely still. E…

A lot of these companies are pre-FB (or right around the same time): PayPal, Craigslist, eBay - those are much smaller than the three giants and on a slight decline curve over time. Yelp was started around FB times and growing sales are not an indicator of the actual growth.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#110
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how to sell ads Why are we so obsessed with the ads model. Why not start charging? This is not a web app, where you have to take out your wallet and enter your CC info; all it takes is the scan of your fingerprint. I am sure people wouldn't mind paying a certain amount per year to keep using the app without creepy apps. Sure, the revenue will be capped by the amount per year a user is willing to pay, but maybe the…

1. Snaps core demo likely doesn’t have the discretionary income to pay for a social network. 2. Snaps main competitor would have a far lower barrier to entry - free 3. If all your friends can’t pay for Snap, you will likely move regardless if you are a paying customer. Why would I pay for a network with 80% of my friends when I can use a near clone with 100% of my friends. 4. Facebook nearly $7/user a month with an a…

> Snaps core demo likely doesn’t have the discretionary income to pay for a social network.

How valuable are a demographics with no discretionary income to advertisers?

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