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Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

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Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#51

Post by noncoml »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #47
noncoml wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how to sell ads Why are we so obsessed with the ads model. Why not start charging? This is not a web app, where you have to take out your wallet and enter your CC info; all it takes is the scan of your fingerprint. I am sure people wouldn't mind paying a certain amount per year to keep using the app without creepy apps. Sure, the revenue will be capped by the amount per year a user is willing to pay, but maybe the…

> I am sure people wouldn't mind paying a certain amount per year to keep using the app without creepy apps. What makes you so sure? Given that there are basically no successful social networks that charge, I'm very skeptical.

It’s a figure of speech, but my guess is based on the amount of money people pay for game apps.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#52

Post by capkutay »

noncoml wrote: post #39
exogeny wrote: post #30

Snap suffers from a fundamental paradox, one that is difficult for me to imagine an easy way to solve. They've made their bones by being a uniquely fun and social way of a certain subset of the population to share their lives without parents dipping their head in and seeing what they're doing, ala Facebook. The UI is designed to generally support this; it is confusing and messy and understandable only by someone who…

> how to sell ads Why are we so obsessed with the ads model. Why not start charging? This is not a web app, where you have to take out your wallet and enter your CC info; all it takes is the scan of your fingerprint. I am sure people wouldn't mind paying a certain amount per year to keep using the app without creepy apps. Sure, the revenue will be capped by the amount per year a user is willing to pay, but maybe the…

ad buyers are also consumers.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#53

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

ptero wrote: post #45
cft wrote: post #36

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

I do not think it is shut, but new entrants must offer something significantly better (or new and useful) than what is available from big 3. I am not sure what exactly Snaps value was beyond some funny face transforms. If nothing, it is not surprising if it fails once the novelty wears off.

It was certainly different when it launched, though, before most of its features were copied into Instagram.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#54

Post by [deleted] »

ptero wrote: post #45
cft wrote: post #36

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

I do not think it is shut, but new entrants must offer something significantly better (or new and useful) than what is available from big 3. I am not sure what exactly Snaps value was beyond some funny face transforms. If nothing, it is not surprising if it fails once the novelty wears off.

[deleted]

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#55

Post by skinnymuch »

username223 wrote: post #37
trts wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't count the number of times I've heard from people very plugged into the industry declare that the FB exodus was underway. If you read Hacker News and Reddit, it's obvious that Facebook is about to die. People are put off by its privacy issues, its outlandishly aggressive efforts to keep you clicking, and its culpability in tilting information and elections to shady actors. But I'd probably make a bet than they…

3bn what? I still "use" it in some sense, but I mostly publish auto-syndicated stuff, and read via mbasic, which uses no JavaScript and limits their surveillance. Of course I never load their "like" buttons. My parents found it useless and stopped using it; my kids can't be bothered. How much is Myspace 2.0 worth?

The number of people who do all of what you do with FB is a minuscule fraction of people. You're also not counting that Instgram, Whatsapp, and FBM have 800M, 1.4B, and 1.1B monthly active users each. With IG already likely profitable and likely to make billions in profits soon and FBM trying to begin to try to monetize. These three are prob worth at least $125B if spun out or separated hypothetically.

This is a diff world and company than MySpace. Calling it 2.0 is misguided at best.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#56

Post by yusee »

Snapchat is a tabloid. The professionally made content is pure trash. I have Snap opened right now. Here is the top 5 pieces of Featured content it shows to me, a 25-yo male:

1) DailyMail: "Khloe [Kardashian] shocks with new FACE". 2) BROTHER: "Do You Actually Know The Right Way To Eat THIS?" (pictures of pizza) 3) FRIYAY: "Watch This to Start Your Weekend" 4) MTV: "These Rapper Names are SO Cringey" 5) NOW THIS: "CAUGHT ON TAPE: Drunk driver tries to trick police"

If Snap can corner the tabloid market, it could be a profitable business one day. But Facebook is on another level. Facebook has the low brow covered, but it also aggregates news. Indeed, Facebook's news sharing is so important that Facebook is a propaganda platform. Nothing on Snapchat matters. Spiegel seems to be a Steve Jobs devotee. The Jobs I imagine rolls in his grave every time he's compared to purveyors of digital junk-food and softcore porn.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#57

Post by skinnymuch »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #27
rjromero wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely, this new generation of kids don't want to pay for anything on the App Store. Maybe the generation of ~5 or so years ago that had a stockpile of iTunes Gift Cards from Christmas did so, but the attitude towards paid applications seems very different now, at least from what I've seen with my younger cousins.

Till they discover they can earn gift cards for app stores through Google Opinion Rewards and buy any app they want. To be fair I know a handful of adults that do this.

The more people that do surveys like Google Opinion Rewards, the less frequently each person will receive surveys and the payouts will decrease. It's nowhere close to that but the Google Play Store also isn't close to the App Store for me at least. I have like $50 from doing surveys but there were barely any apps I wanted or want on Android.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#58

Post by iaw »

roymurdock wrote: post #8
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

Two bits which caught my attention: "[Evan Spiegel] has dismissed ideas that rely heavily on data, according to people who have worked with him. He prefers to study the experience of users for cues on revisions and new features, some of the people said. ... One banker involved in the IPO said he thought the lack of voting shares and other decisions could imperil the company’s standing with investors, possibly hurting…

Matt Levine had a good take on the second point (as always): an underwriter used to lend its name and authority to an IPO as a gatekeeper, back when IPOs were rarer. Now they will sign onto just about any deal, and while they still do some due diligence, it means very little to investors that Morgan Stanley or UBS is underwriting. “Nobody bought Snap because of Morgan Stanley's imprimatur. In this world, the underwri…

Underwriting by investment banks feels less like underwriting and more like arbitraging the fear of missing out.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#59

Post by Barrin92 »

natalyarostova wrote: post #50
noncoml wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how to sell ads Why are we so obsessed with the ads model. Why not start charging? This is not a web app, where you have to take out your wallet and enter your CC info; all it takes is the scan of your fingerprint. I am sure people wouldn't mind paying a certain amount per year to keep using the app without creepy apps. Sure, the revenue will be capped by the amount per year a user is willing to pay, but maybe the…

There seems to be a social convention that has formed around social media products that the user should never have to take out their credit card and actually pay. It makes sense why it started this way, since network effects are everything in this space. But like many things that start one way for a good reason, that reason is eventually forgotten and the state of the world is codified into a shared social norm. Most…

I'm also unsure about the userbase. It seems like the average Snap user is very young. Paywalling the app will probably drastically increase the barrier for people to use the app.

Re: Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Big, Splashy IPO Prompted the Doubters to Keep Mum

#60

Post by iaw »

KaoruAoiShiho wrote: post #22

I just went long on snap after saying for years it's a shitty facebook and if you like social media or online ads then you should just invest in facebook. The latest conference call was very enlightening in that it showed me how much snapchat was doing wrong and what they can do to fix it. I think there's a real opportunity here. It's one thing if snap just can't outcompete facebook, and a whole other thing if the pr…

There's a third possibility that you should be cognizant of: Snap runs out of money.

If they have ~3 more quarters like the last one then they're insolvent. There may be a real opportunity here but not enough time to execute on it (especially given that every early employee can walk away now)

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