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The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

cityobservatory.org

11–20 of 126 posts

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#11
> . . it has become an article of faith that building market-rate housing raises rents, rather than lowers them. The logic of Econ 101 — that an increase in supply lowers price — is alien to many progressives, both in the Bay Area and around the country.

Pretty much. I'm progressive on a lot of issues but many public-interest minded people are immune to economic realities. The example about subsidized versus market-rate housing is a great one. Subsidized housing reducing displacement twice as effectively as a market-rate house sounds great. But put another way: permitting two market-rate houses that bring in tax additional tax revenue is as effective as building a subsidized unit, which costs the government a bunch of money.

The "trickle down" effect is also real.

> Building more market rate housing isn’t so much about “trickle down” as it is building enough new housing to keep higher income households from moving down-market and bidding up the price of older housing that would otherwise be affordable to moderate and lower income households.

In Chicago, which has never had rent controls, there are tons of high-end highrises going up. But the high-end units there were built in the 1970's and 1980's have been retargeted now as more value offerings.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#12

Interesting article. However: "Rent increases, which were measured in the double digits eighteen months ago, have gone negative." I call those kind of increases: decreases.

That kind of wording leads me to believe that he is referring to the rate. I.e. Rent increases are still occurring but at a decreasing rate. Maybe?

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#13
post #5
post #3

If you build new luxury housing presumably people now living in less desirable housing will upgrade, making their housing available at lower prices, etc.

This claim keeps popping up. I’ve yet to see it include a citation. Maybe today will be different.

How about this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/manhattan...

Virtually all new construction in Manhattan is luxury.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#14
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This claim keeps popping up. I’ve yet to see it include a citation. Maybe today will be different.

It’s in this very article. What other outcome could happen?

That new luxury housing makes a city more attractive and induces demand from outside. Adding new roads can make driving more attractive and worsen congestion.

Not saying that’s what happens, but a simple supply/demand analysis (ceteris paribus) may not suffice.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#15
post #9

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

It is perplexing to me why the burden of proof was ever placed on "increasing supply decreases prices" when the mechanism by which rent control + limiting construction is supposed to benefit anyone besides those already occupying those units is totally unclear. I don't even think it's "ought" vs "does" - it's more NIMBY interests being more ingrained into local politics allowing them to somehow gaslight everyone into…

The ones who occupy the residences have the votes...

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#16

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

I don't think it ever truly was a debate over supply effects. I think the true debate is whether people agree or disagree on the desirability of more housing, and the "more supply won't help" argument was coopted by those who needed a more palatable argument than straight NIMBYism.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#18
post #15
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is perplexing to me why the burden of proof was ever placed on "increasing supply decreases prices" when the mechanism by which rent control + limiting construction is supposed to benefit anyone besides those already occupying those units is totally unclear. I don't even think it's "ought" vs "does" - it's more NIMBY interests being more ingrained into local politics allowing them to somehow gaslight everyone into…

The ones who occupy the residences have the votes...

Don't renters also have votes? If so then it's a matter of ratio and willingness to mobilize/fund efforts.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#19
post #12

Interesting article. However: "Rent increases, which were measured in the double digits eighteen months ago, have gone negative." I call those kind of increases: decreases.

That kind of wording leads me to believe that he is referring to the rate. I.e. Rent increases are still occurring but at a decreasing rate. Maybe?

Possible, but I think it's more likely poor wording than linguistic calculus.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#20
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This claim keeps popping up. I’ve yet to see it include a citation. Maybe today will be different.

The article you're commenting on is literally the citation for this. Here's his citation, http://www.sightline.org/2017/09/21/yes-you-can-build-your-w...

This kind of mentality that someone's news article counts as a source is poisonous. People read these articles and think that because a few facts have hyperlinks then they must be valid. Half of those links on that page go to other blogs and news site. One even goes to Youtube. Blogs and news agencies don't count as citations to base an argument on. Policy needs to start at peer reviewed research and build up from there.
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