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Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

autonews.com

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Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#11

Post by snuxoll »

Self-driving cars are inevitable, but I still feel like everybody is focusing too much on the vision of them being the primary mode of transportation well into our future.

Cars as transportation should be dead in the next 50 years, outside of fairly niche (relatively speaking) use cases like construction/maintenance/etc. workers who need to carry large loads or people who live or need to travel well outside of city limits. Research into self-driving vehicles is an important part of improving road safety, but I think we need to focus more on public/mass transit rather than "everybody gets a self-driving pod to go from Point A to Point B".

As someone who loves to go outdoors, and regularly visits family a couple hundred miles away I can't see my families need for a personal vehicle completely going away. But 99% of our road time could just as easily be served with a couple trains and busses instead, freeing up valuable land that is needed by our massive road network as well as the horrendous city designs that have spawned from the assumption that everybody has their own personal vehicle.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#13

Post by MisterBastahrd »

Okay, Mr. auto nerd alarmist guy. We still have freaking firearms everywhere even though they're proven to be dangerous, since putting holes in people and things are their purpose. There will be absolutely no political will to limit people from driving their own vehicles.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#14

Post by monkmartinez »

mindcrime wrote: post #3

These transportation companies will be able to order modules of various sizes — short ones, medium ones, long ones, even pickup modules. But the performance will be the same for all because nobody will be passing anybody else on the highway. That is the death knell for companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. That kind of performance is not going to count anymore. If he's right, kill me now. I really don't want…

I suppose people that were into horses felt the same way when automobiles were first introduced. They knew the bloodlines and "genetics" of a good horse. The emergence of autos made that knowledge less valuable and/or relevant.

I do want to live in that world and I live in the suburbs of vanilla tract homes, charter schools, and club soccer.

Vehicles are expensive in either time, money or both... I recently did the brakes of both our vehicles. It was super inexpensive compared to what I was quoted in price, but it cost me some time. I am looking at replacing one of our vehicles soon as the cost of repair may overshadow the vehicles worth. In all cases... it is a hassle and I would rather not deal with it. The alternative, public transportation and/or Uber is either too expensive (Uber) for our use case or inconvenient (public trans)...

If these self-driving vehicles get to parity with owning a vehicle in terms of cost of ownership and convenience. I will be standing in line to get rid of my cars.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#15

Post by dsfyu404ed »

hkmurakami wrote: post #4
mindcrime wrote: post #3

These transportation companies will be able to order modules of various sizes — short ones, medium ones, long ones, even pickup modules. But the performance will be the same for all because nobody will be passing anybody else on the highway. That is the death knell for companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. That kind of performance is not going to count anymore. If he's right, kill me now. I really don't want…

We can always go to the track.

And you can go hunting in Europe... if you happen to be friends with the land owning gentry.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#16

Post by nobodyorother »

> The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.

Except it won't. You'll go to three Sponsored Locations that offer similar, but not quite the same, services as the destination you selected, while the windows are used as projection screens for advertisements related to your destination and locations you're passing.

- Me: "Take me to Central Park."

- Car: "I'm sorry Tom, I can't let you do that. Going to MOMA, the New Museum, and Battery Park."

- Car: "We'll be passing a Wendy's restaurant momentarily. Did you want to stop to pick up some chicken nuggets or a tasty hamburger? I can offer you a 2 for 1 deal expiring in 5... 4... 3..."

- Me: "We were just planning on pizza, thanks."

- Car: "A $2 non-subsidized convenience fee will be added to your total."

This is my hell.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#18

Post by bryanlarsen »

cabaalis wrote: post #8

There will not be an on-demand service for everything. How would one load up trash in the back of a pickup truck to take to the landfill? How would you take a fishing trip off road to the edge of the lake? A lot of what I read would work fine for urban environments. It would not cover all the use cases we currently have for our vehicles.

"How would one load up trash in the back of a pickup truck to take to the landfill?"

The same way I do it now, rent or buy a truck or a trailer.

"How would you take a fishing trip off road to the edge of the lake?"

You rent or buy a manual drive car. It'd be illegal to use in manual drive mode on the freeway or in the city but off road or on the track or on your own property you can use it however you want.

Re: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

#19

Post by monkmartinez »

cabaalis wrote: post #8

There will not be an on-demand service for everything. How would one load up trash in the back of a pickup truck to take to the landfill? How would you take a fishing trip off road to the edge of the lake? A lot of what I read would work fine for urban environments. It would not cover all the use cases we currently have for our vehicles.

True. Enterprising people will develop solutions or we can still own a specialized "manual" with appropriate regulations.
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