America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#131

Post by dboreham » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:47 PM UTC

frk1206 wrote: post #26

Analemma_ wrote: post #17

Make sure you read the article and don't just come here to comment: there's an important point that this isn't (just) due to Amazon and overbuilding, but because a lot of these troubled chains-- even the ones that are still profitable!-- are loaded up on debt from leveraged private equity buyouts. Once again, PE accomplishes nothing except stripping healthy companies to sell their organs.

Am curious how the profitability part is calculated. Seems like annuity payments or interest/payback on the loan is ignored? If these chains were profitable after counting in debt, there would be no debt - right?

Yes : https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ebitda.asp

I think the GP is saying that absent the LB types extracting the money in the past, these companies would be profitable even after including interest payments because they had no business need to take on that debt. It was incurred solely as a mechanism to turn the company into a debt-machine for the benefit of the then shareholders. They took a bunch of expected future earnings, as a lump sum, at that time that turned out to not be real.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#132

Post by superb_herb » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:47 PM UTC

emodendroket wrote: post #88

fhood wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you 95%. But 5% of me recognizes that certain items require a test run before purchase. In my case those would be Audio equipment, instruments and tennis rackets. None of those can be confidently purchased solely on the impressions of others.

You know, people said that about furniture and clothes and now people buy them online without a second thought.

I honestly can't even remember the last thing I bought in a non-grocery store. Toilet paper, maybe?

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#133

Post by 40acres » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:48 PM UTC

The common thread I'm sensing is that private equity and leveraged buyouts are pouring fuel on the retail fire, after reading about the Toys R Us deal it astonished me how they got raked over the coals by a PE firm.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#134

Post by knz » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:50 PM UTC

cbhl wrote: post #48

ewheeler wrote: post #13

The 'Retail jobs growth by state' chart in this article (approx 2/3 down the page) is lovely: one square line chart for each US state, positioned roughly according to geography, all equal in size. I find it very easy to grok compared to choropleth maps and similar charts that attempt to stay true to geography. Unlike other non-map presentations of US state data, this layout preserves ability to spot regional similari…

I felt like this chart shows that retail store closures are a lagging indicator for employment. Stores are up in NY, WA, TX -- all states where people migrate to to work in tech companies. (Not sure about ND and UT, though.)

ND has/had the oil boom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Dakota_oil_boom). You can see it clearly on the map(s) under "Retail Landscape" (the percentage change maps).

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#135

Post by TallGuyShort » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

munificent wrote: post #75

hprotagonist wrote: post #2

in general, it is difficult for me to separate a reasonable concern borne of the knowledge that a thriving economy is important from a sense that, so far, the big retail chains that are closing many locations sell junk that i both do not want and think is largely superfluous anyway. Anyone got a reasonable way to synthesize those competing thoughts?

I think the America that will result from this die-off is a better place. Less suburban sprawl. Less giant eyesore big-box stores that no one enjoys spending time in. More informed purchases because people buy stuff online where it's easier to compare reviews. But I think there will be significant, very painful collateral damage to people during this transition and I've very sympathetic to people hit by the job losse…

>> More informed purchases because people buy stuff online where it's easier to compare reviews.

I was wondering about this forcing stores to provide more expertise and more flexible inventory. In my town 2 stores in a specific industry went out of business 3 years ago and made a big deal in the papers about how too many people were buying direct from manufacturers instead of visiting their store. I had been to both stores, asked some questions about products, got dumb answers and bad attitude, so I went home and bought everything online. In the last 2 years, 3 new stores in that same industry, 2 of them MASSIVE, have opened up near by (one of them in the same strip mall), and are doing very well. The difference? When you walk into these stores the employees know what they're talking about and they VERY quickly adjust inventory based on current market trends. Now I make most purchases in one of these 3 stores and not online - because I can do research better by talking to them and I can get most things immediately. It's required bigger investment from the owners, but they have thrived where previous stores failed and blamed e-commerce.

Doesn't work with a lot of commodities, but if you're in retail, I think it's clear you need to specialize and add value - and that requires more investment. Don't just be there and expect to keep existing.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#136

Post by Balgair » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

unabst wrote: post #110

Cidan wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let's make towns have downtowns, with beautiful brick roads, scenic ponds with some ducks, perhaps a waterfall, some nice cafes, a lawn with benches, some parks, some nature, trees, live music, a library and museums. You would think! I live in Santa Monica, California, and we have exactly that in our downtown area. The retail shop turnover is insane -- a large amount of shops come and go from the area, despite the…

No... SM is a bit wack. The prices are so high, only big businesses can afford to be there. So most stores are big franchises. And it's too touristy for any culture. Main St is better, and towards Venice. I would also nominate DTLA. Downtown is lit. Parking is wack though. Consumers are no longer interested in old retail chains. They follow influencers and their original brands, but they're mostly direct to consumer,…

SM is loud and very touristy. Buskers are allowed amps for their guitars and I can't count the number of languages spoken. It's more of an airport terminal than anything approaching 'local'. God have mercy on you at the pier. I'd go Culver City, as a better 'local' kinda thing, but even then you need to get up to SB to really stand a chance of a quiet coffee on the street.

> Parking is wack though.

Literally all of LA is like this. Pro-tip, in SM, park at the library. Cheaper and easier to get in/out.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#137

Post by chronice70 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:55 PM UTC

wil421 wrote: post #104

Feniks wrote: post #34

Fuck retail. For decades they have been fleecing customers. Now I'm no longer forced by stores to buy what they happen to have in their inventory. Want that obscure JPN VN? Done, delivered next day. I do feel bad about people losing their jobs. But the discounters and upmarket stores will always survive.

How are online retailers any different? They are “fleecing” customers just as much. In fact, Jeff Bezos is currently the worlds richest man.

> How are online retailers any different?

I get my esoteric shit tomorrow. That's how they're different. Sorry, but not everyone is entitled to a job in 2018.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#138

Post by Fricken » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:55 PM UTC

falcolas wrote: post #118

timthelion wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only stores would let you test audio equipment! I've yet to see an electronics store where most headphones/earbuds could be tested.

I've, ironically, had the best luck lately with the small shops in the airports. They're much more willing to let you test their top-of-the-line headphones than any big box retailer. Yes, to me, it is worth the slight price premium to reward that convenience.

I guess when people walk into an airport shop looking for headphones, they aren't just window shopping, they absolutely intend to buy a pair because they need it for the flight.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#139

Post by sologoub » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:56 PM UTC

Cidan wrote: post #87

pascalxus wrote: post #60

Malls hold no interest for me whatsoever. There's nothing there worthwhile, other than employment. Malls have nothing: no libraries, no Good Cafes, no places to hang out, no parks, no museums, no zoos, limited live music, no outdoors. And the few things it does have: like some book stores and places to eat, are all engineered to get you in and out and back to the Mall's singular focus: Spend, spend, spend: shop till…

> Let's make towns have downtowns, with beautiful brick roads, scenic ponds with some ducks, perhaps a waterfall, some nice cafes, a lawn with benches, some parks, some nature, trees, live music, a library and museums. You would think! I live in Santa Monica, California, and we have exactly that in our downtown area. The retail shop turnover is insane -- a large amount of shops come and go from the area, despite the…

Third street promenade is a disaster area from the perspective you describe. It's a classical tourist funnel designed to extract the most from them.

As noted in another comment, Main St. is a bit better with some ok food, bars and coffee shops, but the retail side doesn't offer much. Most likely out of sheer need for survival due to super expensive lease rates, most retail is oriented towards tourists, with a little bit reserved for ultra wealthy of the area.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#140

Post by mac01021 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 5:57 PM UTC

ewheeler wrote: post #13

The 'Retail jobs growth by state' chart in this article (approx 2/3 down the page) is lovely: one square line chart for each US state, positioned roughly according to geography, all equal in size. I find it very easy to grok compared to choropleth maps and similar charts that attempt to stay true to geography. Unlike other non-map presentations of US state data, this layout preserves ability to spot regional similari…

I agree, that graphic is splendid.

But what's going on with Washington State?