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America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

bloomberg.com

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Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#111

Post by dv_dt »

PatientTrades wrote: post #29

Even with high consumer confidence, retail is dying. The middle class no longer has the same spending habits as it did for the past 60 years. Its fair to say that retail malls and outlets as we know them might not exist in the next 15-20 years. Why would somebody walk into a Macys and buy and item when you can order it of Amazon and have it delivered the same day for %20 cheaper?

The middle class is shrinking and can't maintain the same spending habits. Home prices/equity are a sustaining source of activity anymore because so many lost their homes in the last recession.

A breakdown of retail by their target income demographic might reveal more.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#112

Post by brudgers »

Walmart and Target are mentioned in the article and described as having more space than they need. Much of this is driven by improvements to logistical infrastructure over the past three decades and an increased understanding of what to do with customer/supplier/inventory data and improved capability when it comes to doing it. The recession provided them with the opportunity to remerchandise their stores from depicting abundance to depicting scarcity...it was always the case that Walmart might not have a particular item in stock, now the shelf is sparse rather than filled with one of ten other similar items that are older.

But in the US retail has been overbuilt for decades because the tax incentive of passive loss fueled construction until the Tax Reform Act of 1986. It helped precipitate the S&L crisis. Low interest rates helped overbuilding recover by making real-estate development more attractive and creating higher relative returns from real-estate investment.

The politics of lower taxes over the past forty years has made local governments more dependent on sales tax for funding. Because sales tax increases tend to be more politically palatable due to their regressive nature, local governments tend to be very much in love with retail. The love manifests itself as ready approval of new retail development and an even greater aversion to downzoning existing obsolescent retail parcels and broadzoning existing retail zoning districts.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#113

Post by egypturnash »

irrational wrote: post #12
Retric wrote: post #3

Retail is dependent on consumer spending. As more stores close the remainder should be more profitable, which should minimize ripple effects.

Do you still shop in brick and mortar stores? Other than food (groceries and restaurants) and sometimes clothing, I haven't shopped in a brick and mortar store in so long that I can't even remember when was the last time. It's just so easy to buy things online, even small one off purchases. The other day I needed some AAA batteries so I just hopped on Amazon and ordered them and they showed up a day later. I probably…

I still make a ton of brick and mortar purchases. I’m one block away from a drugstore, where I get things like batteries, bathroom needs, and lighters. Three blocks away from both Trader Joe's, equally close to the weekly farmer's market.

But I also live in an actual city instead of an endless sea of suburban houses.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#114

Post by craftyguy »

onion2k wrote: post #97
pascalxus wrote: post #60

Malls hold no interest for me whatsoever. There's nothing there worthwhile, other than employment. Malls have nothing: no libraries, no Good Cafes, no places to hang out, no parks, no museums, no zoos, limited live music, no outdoors. And the few things it does have: like some book stores and places to eat, are all engineered to get you in and out and back to the Mall's singular focus: Spend, spend, spend: shop till…

Spend, spend, spend: shop till you drop mentality. If you think malls are only about consumerism then you've misunderstood a big part of their appeal for a lot of people. Young people and groups of friends don't go to the mall on their own. Malls merge consumerism with social activity - they're for people who enjoy shopping with their friends. If that's not you then fair enough, but don't disparage malls simply becau…

> Young people and groups of friends don't go to the mall on their own. Malls merge consumerism with social activity - they're for people who enjoy shopping with their friends.

I don't think this has been true, at least in the US, since the 1990s.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#115

Post by nihonde »

pascalxus wrote: post #60

Malls hold no interest for me whatsoever. There's nothing there worthwhile, other than employment. Malls have nothing: no libraries, no Good Cafes, no places to hang out, no parks, no museums, no zoos, limited live music, no outdoors. And the few things it does have: like some book stores and places to eat, are all engineered to get you in and out and back to the Mall's singular focus: Spend, spend, spend: shop till…

Aeon mall in Nagoya, Japan[1] was my primary daily grocery and pharmacy for years. Aeon's format is pretty much the same as most suburban American malls, but they seem to run a tighter ship and do a better job of vertical integration. (I used to marvel at how insanely mirror-clean the floors were in a place where probably a few tens of thousands of people tread daily.) Prices for things like groceries are not the lowest you can find in Japan, but they're good enough. They often have an area where you can buy local farm produce, a high-quality butcher, prepared bento, okashi, etc.

They have a good restaurant selection, too, with a not-depressing food court and a set of good-to-great restaurants. For families, the mall is still genuinely one-stop shopping for clothes, pet supplies, groceries, bikes, dining out, etc.

I often find myself missing my old, reliable Aeon when I'm abroad. I think malls like Aeon deliver on the promise that malls in America fall short on. Aeon is also the biggest retailer in Asia, IIRC.

[1] http://www.aeon.jp/sc/nagoyadomemae/index.html

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#116

Post by ryanmarsh »

ewheeler wrote: post #13

The 'Retail jobs growth by state' chart in this article (approx 2/3 down the page) is lovely: one square line chart for each US state, positioned roughly according to geography, all equal in size. I find it very easy to grok compared to choropleth maps and similar charts that attempt to stay true to geography. Unlike other non-map presentations of US state data, this layout preserves ability to spot regional similari…

It’s a sparkline[1] presented in “small multiples”[2].

[1]https://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=...

[2]https://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&source=hp&ei=F0IDWp75...

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#117

Post by bwanab »

pascalxus wrote: post #60

Malls hold no interest for me whatsoever. There's nothing there worthwhile, other than employment. Malls have nothing: no libraries, no Good Cafes, no places to hang out, no parks, no museums, no zoos, limited live music, no outdoors. And the few things it does have: like some book stores and places to eat, are all engineered to get you in and out and back to the Mall's singular focus: Spend, spend, spend: shop till…

Yes, malls are all those things and I agree completely with your solutions, but malls aren't the worst - that, I'd say, are the drive-through mentality strip development stores that line suburban streets all over the US. At least with malls there's a semblance of people walking and interacting in person.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#118

Post by falcolas »

timthelion wrote: post #101
fhood wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you 95%. But 5% of me recognizes that certain items require a test run before purchase. In my case those would be Audio equipment, instruments and tennis rackets. None of those can be confidently purchased solely on the impressions of others.

If only stores would let you test audio equipment! I've yet to see an electronics store where most headphones/earbuds could be tested.

I've, ironically, had the best luck lately with the small shops in the airports. They're much more willing to let you test their top-of-the-line headphones than any big box retailer.

Yes, to me, it is worth the slight price premium to reward that convenience.

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#119

Post by [deleted] »

emodendroket wrote: post #99
radix07 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but the point is how many jobs does Amazon create delivering all those goods to you compared to say a Sears or Walmart? The modern day middlemen are doing a better job with way less people. Hence the Retail Apocalypse...

But if you read the article it describes a lot of businesses which are profitable and could plod along, except they're saddled with tons of debt from leveraged buyouts.

[deleted]

Re: America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

#120

Post by ericseppanen »

hkmurakami wrote: post #86
pascalxus wrote: post #60

Malls hold no interest for me whatsoever. There's nothing there worthwhile, other than employment. Malls have nothing: no libraries, no Good Cafes, no places to hang out, no parks, no museums, no zoos, limited live music, no outdoors. And the few things it does have: like some book stores and places to eat, are all engineered to get you in and out and back to the Mall's singular focus: Spend, spend, spend: shop till…

Stanford Shopping Center and the Santa Monica downtown thing (I forget what it's called) are very close to what you describe. What malls do have is space, and that kind of large space owned by a single entity is rare these days within a reasonable travel time away. Redevelopment potential is definitely there. Also, a professor of mine once wondered why we don't have great public spaces like they do in Europe. Then he…

Look at Stanford Shopping Center in the satellite view sometime: a bunch of rectangles surrounded by an ocean of surface parking.

It's much more like a conventional mall than a downtown: It's effectively walled off from the rest of the neighbordood. You're expected to go there by driving your car, and it's isolated by its massive parking lots so nobody would consider walking in or out a pleasant experience.

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