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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#581

Post by rayiner »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I’ll bet you money there’s no legal self- driving car subscription like that in DC by 2023

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#582

Post by scrumper »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #568
IanCal wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the latter point, we have basic economic theory: say the average American today spends $600/month total on owning a car. Why would anyone price a self-driving service at $200/month? No, they'd go for an initial price of $400/month for a couple of years to get customers, then sneak back up to $600/month once they've caught most of the market. That's assuming a monopoly. > Why would anyone price a self-driving ser…

No, that's not what happens. This is a classic situation with a stable Nash equilibrium where the best for all competitors is to keep the price high. They know the current price is affordable enough that people will keep paying. Think about gasoline prices back when crude oil prices suddenly fell off a cliff. Did gas prices at your local station drop? No, not one cent. All of the competing stations kept the prices ro…

I know it’s not the main point you’re making, but gas prices near me (north east USA) absolutely did drop a lot when oil plummeted.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#583

Post by bluetwo »

bluetwo wrote: post #77

The interstate highway system is an enormous and expensive asset paid for by the taxpayers of the US. Shouldn't we have a conversation about the rights of citizens before allowing corporations to set a precedent that we will not be able to roll back later?

-2 points. Struck a nerve with someone.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#584

Post by aidenn0 »

Johnny555 wrote: post #466
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

A $30,000 car that lasts for 200,000 miles costs you $0.15/mile or $450 one way for 3000 miles (I ignored age-based depreciation, but also didn't account for other costs like maintenance and insurance). At 30 mpg (because a car that a family of 6 can feel comfortable riding/sleeping in for 40 hours is not going to be a compact car), that's around $250 for gas. So you're at $700, or $1400 both ways. With advanced purc…

Using similar calculations, we figured it at about $2k for our roadtrip last summer, so sounds right.

However, flying:

$550 after taxes and fees is the cheapest I've gotten an LAX/IAD roundtrip for in a while, so $3300 minimum for flying.

Parking for 3 weeks is about $200

$3500 is the flying price, and often I can't get tickets for under $600 that match our schedule.

Depending on the 405, it can take 3 hours to reach LAX and park. You really don't want to have to be running through the airport with little ones, so plan to be there 90 minutes before flight. It usually only 4 hours in the air going west-to-east (east-to-west is longer) but figure time sitting at the gate an taxiing means a minimum of 5 hours on the airplane. So nearly 10 hours of travel time.

Issues with flying that were non-issue in car:

We cannot change our schedule even by a few hours without incurring fees with the airline.

LAX/IAD, plus price sensitivity means almost certainly flying United. I'm not paying the economy plus price times six, so my knees are touching the seat in front of me the entire time.

We had a 20 month old, already nervous from flying for the first time fall asleep on the taxi-way with her seatbelt on, resting her head on my wife's lap. The flight attendent insisted she must be sitting up for takeoff. Said child was screaming for the next 90 minutes from being woken up.

kid potty training? Not while flying, since the fasten seatbelt sign always goes on at the most inopportune times.

It's true that none of these were enough to get us to stop flying (having a kid with PTSD was what did that; you don't want to be locked in a box with 200 strangers when he gets triggered), but it was surprising how much less stressful it was even compared to flying before we had him.

Perhaps cross-country will still be niche, but certainly day-long road trips will jump in popularity when nobody has to do the driving.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#585

Post by harryh »

rayiner wrote: post #581
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I’ll bet you money there’s no legal self- driving car subscription like that in DC by 2023

I'm not willing to bet on specific prices or business models but I will bet you $100 that a traveler will be able to take a self driving car from Reagan Airport to The Hay-Adams Hotel on or before Dec 31, 2023.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#586

Post by aidenn0 »

titzer wrote: post #302
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) It's really sad that the United States has let passenger rail deteriorate to the point that people are forced into this situation. Really, really poor foresight.

https://futuretravel.today/what-it-s-actually-like-to-travel...

It takes longer than driving, and a sleeper car is more expensive than flying. The cost is similar to driving for a family of 4, once you account for depreciation on your car.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#587

Post by IanCal »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #568
IanCal wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the latter point, we have basic economic theory: say the average American today spends $600/month total on owning a car. Why would anyone price a self-driving service at $200/month? No, they'd go for an initial price of $400/month for a couple of years to get customers, then sneak back up to $600/month once they've caught most of the market. That's assuming a monopoly. > Why would anyone price a self-driving ser…

No, that's not what happens. This is a classic situation with a stable Nash equilibrium where the best for all competitors is to keep the price high. They know the current price is affordable enough that people will keep paying. Think about gasoline prices back when crude oil prices suddenly fell off a cliff. Did gas prices at your local station drop? No, not one cent. All of the competing stations kept the prices ro…

> Think about gasoline prices back when crude oil prices suddenly fell off a cliff. Did gas prices at your local station drop?

Petrol prices in the UK definitely have dropped (30% over four years, not including inflation) http://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#588

Post by Animats »

gok wrote: post #226
Animats wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo does seem to be ahead technically. They've been working on the hard cases for years, while the other guys are still struggling. They are trying hard to get good situational awareness. One of the few neutral measures we have are CA DMV's disconnect and accident reports, and in those, Waymo has been consistently ahead. Waymo is hooked up with FCA (Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles), of all things. Uber is "fake it 'til y…

Tesla's approach may really have fundamental problems, but it's impossible to compare the results from a driver assist system used by untrained consumers with an autonomous driving system that's only being used with professional safety drivers in conditions for which is expected to function properly.

It's quite possible to compare them. Google has never done anything like this.[1] This is a Tesla vehicle on "autopilot" crashing into a street sweeper without even slowing down. It's on an expressway, where Tesla's "autopilot" is supposed to work. The street sweeper is big, partly blocking the lane. The driver trusted Tesla's "autopilot" to do something reasonable. It didn't.

The driver was killed. That blood is on Elon Musk's hands.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfcumft5n8

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#589

Post by johngalt »

chrischen wrote: post #408

It'd be interesting to see how this compares in overall efficiency to properly implemented and comprehensive mass transit systems in a dense urban environment. The Tokyo metro alone (not including the JR trains, Tokyo Subway—a separate but compatible subway system, and other train transit systems which totals over 40 million daily users) handles 6.8 million passengers daily just in one city . https://en.wikipedia.org…

Obviously trains win on raw throughput, regardless of who drives. If you expect to supplant trains with self driving cars, you are doing it wrong. The two technologies aren't in opposition. They are complimentary.

If mass transit can handle 80% of my daily commute, that means I buy a car for commuting. Or if mass transit requires extensive planning, delays or limitations for unscheduled non-commuter travel; then I buy a car. If I have the car, then I might as well use it.

With self driving cars in the mix, I know that whenever I want, I can put a destination in my phone and reliably gain transportation to anywhere inexpensively and immediately. Now that 80% mass transit solution is enough for commuting, because a car service is waiting to handle the last 20% as well as non-commuter travel.

Ideally we will see coordination between services/transfers. I put one destination into my phone and it handles booking car -> train -> car -> destination without having to fiddle with buying transit passes or checking train schedules. Then you will see mass transit usage ramp up significantly.

Edit: Imagine something like on-demand vans that do nothing but taxi people to the local bus/train/tram station. Or even do full point-point travel if the next train is >maxtime away.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#590

Post by vkou »

cjalmeida wrote: post #519
vkou wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a radical idea that could be looked into - have a very large autonomous car, carrying 20-100 people. With enough of them, we could reduce traffic, save money (Compared to the cost of private vehicle ownership) - and the best part is, from the perspective of the riders, it will be self-driving. Why should we invest into self-driving carpools, when buses are cheaper, and more efficient?

Fixed routes and last mile. Buses are particularly poor on that. I'm thinking on mini buses, 10 to 20 pax, with flexible dispatching. A service where you tell where you live, where you want to get to every workday at what time. Algorithms pool people and make sure you don't have to walk more than a few minutes. Nor wait for long before journey or arrive too early.

Buses have poor last-mile economics because the overwhelming majority of commuters drive, killing any hope for economies of scale. If there were fewer cars on the road, bus coverage would be much better then what you're used to. (If we were to use 20-person mini-buses.)
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