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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#541

Post by Piskvorrr »

nindalf wrote: post #536
Piskvorrr wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typing this as I exit the world's fifth best public transit system: the exact same sentiment exists here - for a commute of 45 min by public transport, 120 min by bike, and 90 min by car (morning traffic+cruising for a spot), people still pick the car option, as it's "more comfortable". So, while the efficiency of public transport might be a concern, car-as-a-status-symbol seems to be near-universal.

I use the 3rd best in the world and I dunno, sometimes at the end of the day or end of a long-haul flight you're really tired and you don't want to jostle for a comfortable place to stand on the tube. I'd understand why people prefer getting a cab in such a situation.

I do understand and do have those use cases, but aren't they exceptions? Moreover, I was referring to driving, not taking a taxi (perhaps I should have been more clear). What I meant was "driving my own car is my primary, everyday mode of transport, regardless of congestion: hour and a half there, an hour back, never mind that I could have made the round-trip an hour faster by public transport. I'd rather be dead than be seen on the tube, EVER."

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#542

Post by mschuster91 »

chiefofgxbxl wrote: post #410
landryraccoon wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

To detail one particular addition of traffic to the roads: students - with self-driving cars, students from K-12 may much rather want to have the independence to hop in a car rather than ride a "stinky school bus". Parents may end up loving it, especially those who already drive their kids to school. And I'm sure the school districts would love self-driving cars, because it means they can pass the travel expenses ont…

> where I grew up a single school bus cost the district over $1m

What? Per year or once? If per year I wonder what amounts of corruption must be going on. A simple 31-seater bus from Mercedes costs approx. 285.000€ to buy new (https://www.busplaner.de/omnibusmagazin/omnibustest/10035/Me...), which means over a 5y life it's 57k/y... add the same for insurance premiums and the driver, and still I can't get anywhere close to that figure of 1M/bus per year.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#543

Post by criddell »

jodrellblank wrote: post #412
criddell wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it could eventually be much cheaper but I don't know about 10:1. If autonomous cars don't crash, the insurance will be super cheap. If they are electric, then maintenance and operating costs should be very inexpensive. When cars don't crash, they don't need to be designed to crash, so you can start building the cars out of lighter materials. When the car is far lighter, then the drivetrain can be simpler and…

All you need next is to build A near B and you can take the person out of the car entirely. They can walk to their destination, and the car can be made out of aerogel and powered by fairy dust and the ride sharing software is simpler, the logistics are easier to manage, wear and tear is reduced, and the companies can have a valuation into the stratosphere. > I could see taxis serving city centers that are more like a…

> All you need next is to build A near B

That will never happen. When my car can drive itself, I'm moving further out of the city.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#544

Post by C14L »

dheera wrote: post #444
seanp2k2 wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

once people are okay with sharing seats in a van That's going to be a long wait in the US! People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic and have everyone see how fancy their luxury bubble is vs. /gasp/ sharing it with others. Most people here don't want mass transit, they want their big truck / SUV to haul 1-4 people ("it's safer for my kid").

> People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic I think it has a lot less to do with the bubble factor than the fact that public transportation in the US just sucks, period. My 3-mile commute from Menlo Park to Palo Alto would take - bus: 58 minutes (2 minute walk from home to bus stop + 12 minutes average wait for ECR bus + 10 minutes on ECR + 12 minutes average wait in Palo Alto Transit C…

Why wait for a train or bus? Install an app that tells you when you need to leave your place to get to the station just in time.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#545

Post by vidarh »

Johnny555 wrote: post #491
dagw wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of areas in the world where you have two points where it's worth running a heavy line train every 3 minutes is minuscule.

But, not coincidentally, those areas are the same areas where freeways are at capacity and would benefit from running 4 passenger self-driving cars at 1 second headways. Self driving cars work well with railroads -- the cars can get passengers from their lower density neighborhoods to the rail stations, and rail can take the passengers to the urban centers where their jobs are. It makes little sense for a self-drivin…

That's the best part, I think, with self driving services: Coupled with other modes of transport, if we know the start and end points, we can optimize public transport accordingly, and in the meantime your car can take you to the optimal station and tell you which platform to go to and where you'll get picked up for the final leg of your journey.

You can also then optimize to drop people off at stations they might not otherwise pick if traffic makes it more sensible, or tell them to get off a station early/late and pick them up there if it helps the overall journey.

Over the long run it may even fundamentally alter construction of new lines, in that there may be more optimal location of station placements for stations e.g. feeding commuters when you have detailed data on the precise journeys.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#546

Post by icc97 »

wskinner wrote: post #507
Johnny555 wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The OP was talking about max capacity not real world capacity. Some JR lines run at 4 minute headways during peak times and subways run reliably at 2 minute headways. No freeway today has has 4 passenger cars running at 1 second headways so you end up with a more realistic 1000 to 2000 pax per hour. Which is about the number of pax you can fit in a single train. A 3 lane freeway takes up about the same amount of spac…

So your point is that in ideal (not real world) conditions, trains have higher throughput. And in Japan, the cost to a consumer is higher to drive. A) why should we care about ideal rather than real world scenarios? If the train is only 30% full on average, it doesn’t matter that if full, it would transport more pax per hour. And based on the number of cars on these highways, I don’t think the trains will be very ful…

I think the parent's point was that you can have higher throughput on trains in both real world and ideal.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#547

Post by zimpenfish »

C14L wrote: post #544
dheera wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic I think it has a lot less to do with the bubble factor than the fact that public transportation in the US just sucks, period. My 3-mile commute from Menlo Park to Palo Alto would take - bus: 58 minutes (2 minute walk from home to bus stop + 12 minutes average wait for ECR bus + 10 minutes on ECR + 12 minutes average wait in Palo Alto Transit C…

Why wait for a train or bus? Install an app that tells you when you need to leave your place to get to the station just in time.

That implies 1) the train or bus arrives and leaves at the station exactly according to the timetable and 2) you get from home to the station exactly according to the estimate.

In my limited sample group of one (1), these are rarely true.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#548

Post by sumeno »

lafar6502 wrote: post #502
sumeno wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think self driving cars are important? Can you elaborate on why not?

No need to rush it. Companies developing the tech might say it’s important to have it now but mostly because they need money now to survive. And they dont have any product to make the business real. So, they sell the hype, I would not pay attention to that. Maybe do a reality check every 5 years instead of jumping up at every ‘breakthrough’ news from the ceos.

Of all the companies doing driverless cars Waymo has the resources of Alphabet. They don't need the money to survive and aren't looking for their next round of VC money.

If a driverless ride hailing service isn't worth paying attention to what is?

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#549

Post by vidarh »

Johnny555 wrote: post #503
ekianjo wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in Japan where trains are tightly operated, you don't get trains every 3 minutes (talking about long distance trains, not metros). At best one train every 15 minutes on average between peak hours and more calm periods. That divides your capacity by 5 already, so you are now at around 10 000 passengers per hour with your trains. Add to that that freeways don't have a single lane, but usually at least 2, if not 3,…

The OP was talking about max capacity not real world capacity. Some JR lines run at 4 minute headways during peak times and subways run reliably at 2 minute headways. No freeway today has has 4 passenger cars running at 1 second headways so you end up with a more realistic 1000 to 2000 pax per hour. Which is about the number of pax you can fit in a single train. A 3 lane freeway takes up about the same amount of spac…

To add to that:

Some London tube lines run with And my local heavy rail station regularly handles 3-4 trains to the same station in a 10 minute interval. E.g right now there are 3 trains for London Victoria scheduled to leave in a 7 minute period, and that's not peak time.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#550

Post by icc97 »

PuffinBlue wrote: post #349
ghaff wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your kids must be saints. If I had been cooped up with my parents and sibling as a child for 40 hours even in a large van or RV with robo-Uber at the helm, someone would probably have been murdered at some point :-) As for my adult self, lie-flat seating on planes trans-Pacific is OK but it's still pretty boring. Even if I could work at some level in my comfy cross-country van I'd still take a significantly faster op…

I think you perhaps misread the post. It suggests that there is only 12 hours driving per day but the kids would be asleep for at least 8 of those. The idea being drive overnight and stop at the next waypoint (see friends in flyover country/national park etc) during the day. I guess the plan being to do interesting stuff when awake and travel when asleep, for the most part. I suppose as long as you get in the hours y…

Tesla camping is already a thing [0].

Also perhaps more people would start buying VW camper vans. VW are planning an electric version [1].

[0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-tesla-camper-mode/

[1]: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40998128

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