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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#501

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

In Europe, it would be very rare for someone to drive for that long. They would take a train or plane.

Anyway, indeed self-driving cars can be disruptive for long-distance travel, also in Europe.

Suppose you are traveling between two small towns that are hundreds or thousands of km apart. I think the most reasonable model would be self-driving car from town A to nearest high-speed rail station, high-speed rail to station close to town B, and then self-driving car to town B.

Rail companies could sell the ticket for the whole thing, and owning a car for long-distance travel would make no sense.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#502

Post by lafar6502 »

sumeno wrote: post #220
lafar6502 wrote: post #211

But who cares? They convinced us somehow that self driving cars are important, but it’s just self-important, gets the investors attention and money. Now time to move on to the next big thing.

You don't think self driving cars are important? Can you elaborate on why not?

No need to rush it. Companies developing the tech might say it’s important to have it now but mostly because they need money now to survive. And they dont have any product to make the business real. So, they sell the hype, I would not pay attention to that. Maybe do a reality check every 5 years instead of jumping up at every ‘breakthrough’ news from the ceos.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#503

Post by Johnny555 »

ekianjo wrote: post #494
Johnny555 wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you can't. A rail line can carry many more passengers/hour than cars, even self driving cars. From https://letsgola.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/capacity-101/ A typical freeway lane today can carry around 3600 passengers per hour. Reduce the headway between cars to 1 second and put 4 passengers in every car and that goes up to 14,400 pax/hr However, run a heavy rail line and run trains every 3 minutes, and it can car…

Even in Japan where trains are tightly operated, you don't get trains every 3 minutes (talking about long distance trains, not metros). At best one train every 15 minutes on average between peak hours and more calm periods. That divides your capacity by 5 already, so you are now at around 10 000 passengers per hour with your trains. Add to that that freeways don't have a single lane, but usually at least 2, if not 3,…

The OP was talking about max capacity not real world capacity.

Some JR lines run at 4 minute headways during peak times and subways run reliably at 2 minute headways.

No freeway today has has 4 passenger cars running at 1 second headways so you end up with a more realistic 1000 to 2000 pax per hour. Which is about the number of pax you can fit in a single train.

A 3 lane freeway takes up about the same amount of space e as 4 sets of train tracks. And the areas that have heavy congestion are also typically the areas that have little space to spare for more lanes.

The road toll from Osaka to Kyoto is $20. A local train costs about $5, a slightly faster JR train is $12. The toll from Nagoya to Fukuoka is $160 and the drive takes 9 hours. I paid about $165 for a Shinkansen bullet train that took about 3.5 hours. And the toll prices ignore the cost of the car

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#504

Post by Piskvorrr »

barney54 wrote: post #449
scirocco wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bed. With seat belt :)

In the future cars might be so safe you don't need a seat belt. Another thing that changes with autonomy is a reduction of crash-related features.

Improbable, unless you can handwave terrain away. (And deer. And malfunctions. And...) There's so many things a car can impact besides other cars that a non-seatbelt in a car is far less likely than cars being replaced by some other form of transport.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#505

Post by Piskvorrr »

geomark wrote: post #371
sangnoir wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/…

Am I the only one who gets car sick when reading or using a computer in a car? Everyone keeps talking about working while on a long commute in a self-driving vehicle. Doing more than 30 minutes of it is not really an option for me.

Nope, not alone. Might be something with sudden acceleration changes - doesn't happen to me on a train, and only rarely on a bus.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#506

Post by IshKebab »

emerongi wrote: post #253

Why are the videos always done in perfect conditions? I like drive.ai's approach a lot more where they demonstrated the capabilities at night and in heavy rain. It's much more impressive.

Probably because nobody is behind the wheel. Given that this is the first time a company is willing to do that it's not surprising that it's at 20mph in sunny weather on the quietest most spacious roads in the world.

I haven't looked but I'd guess drive.ai's is no-way near reliable enough to be without a backup driver in the rain at night on a road with road-side parking etc.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#507

Post by wskinner »

Johnny555 wrote: post #503
ekianjo wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in Japan where trains are tightly operated, you don't get trains every 3 minutes (talking about long distance trains, not metros). At best one train every 15 minutes on average between peak hours and more calm periods. That divides your capacity by 5 already, so you are now at around 10 000 passengers per hour with your trains. Add to that that freeways don't have a single lane, but usually at least 2, if not 3,…

The OP was talking about max capacity not real world capacity. Some JR lines run at 4 minute headways during peak times and subways run reliably at 2 minute headways. No freeway today has has 4 passenger cars running at 1 second headways so you end up with a more realistic 1000 to 2000 pax per hour. Which is about the number of pax you can fit in a single train. A 3 lane freeway takes up about the same amount of spac…

So your point is that in ideal (not real world) conditions, trains have higher throughput. And in Japan, the cost to a consumer is higher to drive.

A) why should we care about ideal rather than real world scenarios? If the train is only 30% full on average, it doesn’t matter that if full, it would transport more pax per hour. And based on the number of cars on these highways, I don’t think the trains will be very full. If the trains are going to be empty, operating them and building the tracks is probably not cost effective.

B) Without knowing the all-in cost of the two options, comparing these prices is meaningless. It’s very likely the Japanese government sets tolls high enough to incentivize people to take trains. That doesn’t by itself mean trains are a better option... I could point to plenty of places in the USA where driving is cheaper than taking Amtrak. What does that illustrate? That American states pay for roads with taxes instead of tolls? That Amtrak is inefficient and expensive? I have no idea.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#508

Post by speedplane »

jacksmith21006 wrote: post #353
Fricken wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's certainly not a winner take all market, the world is a big place and it would be ridiculously capital-intensive to deploy everywhere before anyone else has a shot. Though we could very well end up seeing regional monopolies where a single fleet provider dominates in a given city. Uber is working hard to develop autonomous vehicles, but I don't think they need to worry about getting usurped by a competitors robot…

Disagree. Think it is a winner take all. But I also think Google will involve other companies but be controlling the platform that wins. Google has way too many advantgeous even beyond a beta? Alpha? working solution. But it is the fact that Google really wants it. Plus there is no competition from any other big tech player like Amazon and FB be the most important two.

Google is years ahead of the competition. Far ahead of Tesla, Uber, and all of big auto. I do believe they want the best tech. I'm not sure they want to make cars though, which means they'll eventually have to team up with somebody. Maybe they'll just buy Chrysler.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#509

Post by wskinner »

paddy_m wrote: post #456
wskinner wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Passenger rail in the United States probably doesn’t have the same economics as the other places you’re thinking of. I recently drove across part of the country, and it is shocking how much space there is with absolutely nothing there. There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80 without cell service or signs of habitation. If you live in a city, it’s easy to forget that the United States is much, much, bigger than Europe or…

That stretch is I-70 between Moab, UT and I-15 about 150 miles south of Salt Lake City. It's an absolutely breathtaking segment of road. I truly recommend visiting it.

The one I was thinking of is actually I-80 north of Utah to outside of Sparks, Nevada. But yes, the section of I-70 you’re thinking of is quite nice.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#510

Post by speedplane »

jfoster wrote: post #98
sliverstorm wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we have a good signal that truly indicates Waymo has more advanced tech? Or could they simply have a bigger appetite for risk?

If anything, Waymo's risk appetite has seemed cautious to me. How many years have they been at it? How many millions of miles have they tested on? Every company that has something good in this race (Waymo, Tesla, Mercedes, etc.) seems to want to show it off. It seems pretty definite that Waymo is in the lead.

Waymo is doing more than building an autonomous vehicle, they are building a trusted brand. Admitting the problem is hard and periodically presenting small milestones builds credibility. When Waymo does release a general purpose car, I'll be far more likely to trust it than a Tesla Autopilot.
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