Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#401

Post by theptip » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:38 AM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #332

aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

I agree that traffic will be "worse" in some sense, in that there will be more of it. But maybe not "worse" in the important sense of how annoying it is, since we won't be consciously piloting a machine through it.

Instead we could be sleeping, playing video games, working on laptops, etc.

I think that vehicle design will shift a lot once we start optimizing for these new use-cases, and this might make a big difference to how tolerable road journeys are.

This is all very hard to predict though...

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#402

Post by jodrellblank » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:40 AM UTC

rrhd wrote: post #346

jedberg wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rath…

pfft, made up problems. You will submit to not owning anything. You don't need a house either, just go to an AirBnB every night. Everything must be a service. Ideally provided by google. Next thing your going to say is that waiting for 15 minutes in the rain with a crying baby while you get gouged for triple price because of nearby concert is a problem for you. Just suck it up and accept that car ownership is a outda…

An entire AirBnB? You're just an opinion-having meatball, there to get adverts screamed into your face 24/7 while you have opinions and allocate your UBI.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzOVUGrIIAAH8c9.jpg:large

There won't be everything as a service, because you won't have anything. There's no need for you to do anything in this fiat-advertising-bubble-money future world. Expect maybe a stream of soylent and a ventilated cage, unless you have pro-tier skills in extracting money from Stanford Prison Experiment 'customers'.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#403

Post by gniv » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:42 AM UTC

hardtke wrote: post #26

What happens if these cars get in a situation where there is no legal way to move? For instance, the other day I was driving down the street and it was closed because of a Farmers market. Will they just sit there for hours? In gridlock, there is often no way to move without "blocking the box."

I doubt that they only make legal maneuvers. They could still get stuck for various reasons, but legal restrictions are probably not a main concern.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#404

Post by alooPotato » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:43 AM UTC

MarkMc wrote: post #399

edshiro wrote: post #68

If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition (say 18-24 months ahead minimum) then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats. This may not be a winner-take-all market (I don't know honestly...) but I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly. One way the…

> If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition ... then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats...I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly Yes, Waymo may capture 100% of the self-driving tech market for a few years, but I don't see it having a sustai…

> Yes, Waymo may capture 100% of the self-driving tech market for a few years, but I don't see it having a sustainable advantage. As soon as another company develops self-driving technology that meets safety standards it can undercut Waymo and capture a significant market share. In 10 years self driving tech will be a commodity product - any car manufacturer/ride hailing company will be able to choose between a half-dozen offerings.

This is what I'm most excited about. Currently ride sharing market isn't very competitive because its hard for new entrants to get the network effects going of drivers and passengers. With driverless cars, once the tech is commoditized, any large-ish company could theoretically offer a ride sharing service - it just becomes a financing problem to lease the cars which I believe will allow for more entrants (not mom and pops, but many more corps can jump in).

> But car manucturers are still in for long-term pain because their product is also becoming a commodity: nobody cares about the colour or horsepower of the taxi they take to work.

Maybe they don't care about color and horsepower but they might care about other features. Comfort, tech bells and whistles, layout (all the seats face inwards with a poker table in the middle), or just straight luxury. On that last point, there are many high end cars that aren't meant to be driven by their owners. The owners are meant to sit in the back and enjoy.

I'm still unsure whether net cars will go up or go down, theirs arguments on both sides.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#405

Post by kbenson » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:49 AM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #332

aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

Traffic might be worse, initially, but once people are okay with sharing seats in a van, you might see a massive rise in ad-hoc ride-sharing/carpooling. These services know where you're getting picked up and where you're going, so there's no reason that can't route close vehicles/riders designating as okay with sharing to have a higher rider ratio per trip. Even with increased total per-person trips, we might be able to achieve a relatively low per-vehicle trip increase.

Couple that with the ability to reclaim a lot of space designated for parking, and forward thinking cities might make themselves much more walkable as well.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#406

Post by LrnByTeach » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:50 AM UTC

oh_teh_meows wrote: post #396

LrnByTeach wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Road Traffic won't worsen as you mentioned, let me explain why ? Increased capacity utilization. I assume, you are a technical person. If you look back at year 2000, In a typical IT company there is a server Box for each category. A Database server box , a WebServer Box ( physical machines ) etc.. very few people used viruvalization etc.. Physical Machines capacity utilization is around 15% . Come to 2017, with Amazo…

OP's probably referring to induced demand [0], or something similar to Braess's paradox [1]. But I see your point though. If people are incentivized to share a car then that might reduce the load. That said, my suspicion is, once you take the driver out of the equation, you can do so much more than just ferrying people. E.g courier/shipping services, or mobile food stalls (food truck that sells food while moving on t…

Yes, the financial incentives for sharing the RIDE , coupled with Induced demand make Autonomous cars so cheap like $200/month for 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION, the adoption goes exponential at this point .

I will give you one great example of 'Exponential adoption' happened in recent history of technology.

In the year 1998, at the early days of Internet, we used have only WIRED Broadband Router. Everybody has a 100 Feet CAT 5 cable in the home, when you need to connect a different computer/laptop you change that CAT 5 to that ROOM from Router. 100 Feet CAT 5 wire used to cost $75 those days.

When Wireless ROUTER are released in the next 10 months, at the cost of $100 every body bought, it is no brainer instead of Buying couple of CAT5 100 Feet wires which each cost $75 and still inconvenient .

In my memory this is the most RAPID adoption in a matter of one year , whole USA moved to Bought WIRELESS Routers.

Same thing will happen with , Electric Self-driving on-demand summon CARS where it costs $200/month using it any time vs. owing CAR costs $400/month ( insurance , Gasoline , etc.. )

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#407

Post by samstave » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:51 AM UTC

Ajedi32 wrote: post #105

samstave wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They manage to climb in, they OD/go into arrest, cant climb out. What then? So the uber now has to either get a person or take that car to a hospital - how do they know to do such? So is uber running a massive call center that watches every driverless ride and monitors the situation? Are they monitoring if people get into a fight in the car? That actually happened to me, where I took an uber pool, and the two other r…

> So the uber now has to either get a person or take that car to a hospital - how do they know to do such? It does? Why? What if the person passed out in their own, manually driven car? Would you expect that car to automatically call an ambulance? Just because you theoretically could have some kind of elaborate system that detects when the user falls unconscious and carries them to the hospital, doesn't mean that's _…

What do you mean why?

This is literally the stupidest response on this thread. Why? Because presume I am paying Ajedi32 to drive me home. So the presumption is that Ajedi32 is responsible for my well being to arrive Home.

So I don’t arrive home. I get dumped on the side of the road or I die in the presumed care of Ajedi32.

Don’t mess around with Your reputation, Ajedi32 because you want to defend stupid ai driving cars, have some self awareness and vision.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#408

Post by chrischen » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:52 AM UTC

It'd be interesting to see how this compares in overall efficiency to properly implemented and comprehensive mass transit systems in a dense urban environment. The Tokyo metro alone (not including the JR trains, Tokyo Subway—a separate but compatible subway system, and other train transit systems which totals over 40 million daily users) handles 6.8 million passengers daily just in one city.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_Greater_Tokyo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_subway

It seems like if it scaled to the point where even there are no drivers, there's no way such a system can support a large number of users in a dense area at the same efficiency of a train. For Taxi's the issue isn't the cost of the driver, but actually the space and traffic constraints. Medallion supplies weren't constrained due to corruption and cronyism but to prevent the overpopulation of Taxis. Removing the driver may lower costs of Taxi's but there will still be a minimum floor to Taxi prices as you can't just infinitely supply a city with driverless cars.

The area where I do see driverless taxis flourishing is suburban point-to-point transport. The current use case in SF where basically Uber and Lyfts have supplanted public transit is unique to the city, flush with money and short on public transit options.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#409

Post by ugh123 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:55 AM UTC

LrnByTeach wrote: post #329

ugh123 wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Google providing/licensing the software and tech to other manufacturers is risky and leaves open the possibility for a new provider to slide in and undercut with each car provider. Google should leverage their early position and corner the market where they'll be a sole player and dominate for the longterm.

Let us explore the case of competitor offering software by under cutting Google with low price . Let us take the established known history of 'Evolution of Android on smart phones'. By 2010 as Android share is growing world wide, everybody know there is big money to be made in FUTURE ( By Ads and other means ) by supplying Mobile OS even at free of cost at THAT time. But nobody is able to do it, even microsoft with i…

With Android, Google was able to maintain its influence by the use of the Play store and other external services tied directly to default and popular apps (i'm aware there are hacks to get around certain restrictions within the AOSP).

Those same concepts won't necessarily be applicable to self-driving car tech.. unless Google is able to establish auxiliary services required to support the self-driving network (public monitoring stations, deep mapping, etc) that can further solidify their position while continuing to distribute just the software. This would further raise the bar for competitors to enter the market.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#410

Post by chiefofgxbxl » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 1:59 AM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #332

aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

To detail one particular addition of traffic to the roads: students - with self-driving cars, students from K-12 may much rather want to have the independence to hop in a car rather than ride a "stinky school bus". Parents may end up loving it, especially those who already drive their kids to school. And I'm sure the school districts would love self-driving cars, because it means they can pass the travel expenses onto the parents to pay for those cars, instead of having to buy tens of millions of dollars worth of buses, pay bus drivers, liability and insurance, gas, etc. (where I grew up a single school bus cost the district over $1m; we had a fleet of maybe 40-50 buses)

In my home-town of 30k people, nearly 2,000 of those are high school students alone, plus probably another 1,000 elementary school kids, and maybe 800 middle school. No doubt they'd all want to use the cool tech to ride to school instead of taking the school bus. Add 4,000 more cars to the road please. (And as for ride-sharing, that may be fun once in a while, but why do that when I can get an entire entertainment pod all to myself?)