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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#341

Post by greedo »

bamboozled wrote: post #252
aecs99 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g., parking, requiring space for parking, insurance, time spent in fueling, maintenance, etc.). However, I tend to think that there still may be a decent size of population who'd prefer owning. Others mentioned the convenience of using cars for storage, being r…

Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.

And towing boats, or ATVs, or anything that won't fit in a small vehicle. Or going to Costco/Sam's Club and loading up on groceries. Sometimes I think many on HN live in an urban bubble without children, where everything is either ordered online or picked up at a bodega on the corner. For much of the US, life is nothing like that. There's a reason the Ford F-150 has been the most popular selling vehicle in the US for many, many years.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#342

Post by jacksmith21006 »

wpietri wrote: post #303
sudhirj wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think it's unlikely that Waymo will build out and operate a full fledged ride service - there's a lot of other factors to work out like scheduling, routing, supply-demand management, optimal vehicle distribution, pooling etc that they could just delegate to Lyft for. They might just build a service to the extent of push a button and a vehicle will come, and take you where you tap. That's enough to work inside a contr…

Yeah, I think Waymo is much better off selling shovels to prospectors than trying to mine all the gold themselves. A lot of people will try to get into the ridesharing business, some of them much better capitalized than Waymo.

Better capatilized than Waymo? Alphabet has over $100b cash with less than $4b debt and over 40% on shore.

Only Apple has more with about $260b cash but over $100b debt and over 90% offshore so tax liability yet to be paid.

What better capitalization are you speaking? Also realize Alphabet could also raise additional capital bpver easily. They are the only ones truly able to so level 4 and they are miles and miles ahead of everyone else literally.

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-car-... The Numbers Don't Lie: Self-Driving Cars Are Getting Good - Wired

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#344

Post by hughes »

whiddershins wrote: post #334
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

Your comment was interesting. However, I found the use of all caps very distracting. From the guidelines: “Please don't use uppercase for emphasis. If you want to emphasize a word or phrase, put asterisks around it and it will get italicized.” Just my two cents.

Even with italics, 2-3 emphasized words per sentence is way too much to take seriously

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#345

Post by rrhd »

robotresearcher wrote: post #313
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> for only the depreciation cost on my car Ignoring fuel!

Thats a cost that occurs no matter the system (you drive, you own a self driving car, dystopian wasteland of ordering cars).

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#346

Post by rrhd »

jedberg wrote: post #239
bitL wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you want to own a self-driving car? You'll just summon it from the nearest parking lot when needed.

My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rath…

pfft, made up problems. You will submit to not owning anything. You don't need a house either, just go to an AirBnB every night.

Everything must be a service. Ideally provided by google.

Next thing your going to say is that waiting for 15 minutes in the rain with a crying baby while you get gouged for triple price because of nearby concert is a problem for you. Just suck it up and accept that car ownership is a outdated idea and you need to bow to the will of the tech hipsters and conglomerates.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#347

Post by jacksmith21006 »

edshiro wrote: post #68

If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition (say 18-24 months ahead minimum) then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats. This may not be a winner-take-all market (I don't know honestly...) but I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly. One way the…

The road for car makers is way, way longer than ride sharing. Thru ride sharing things will be so far along that there is little chance the car makers will be competitive. Plus the future is NOT buying cars.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#348

Post by jacksmith21006 »

Animats wrote: post #116
edshiro wrote: post #68

If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition (say 18-24 months ahead minimum) then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats. This may not be a winner-take-all market (I don't know honestly...) but I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly. One way the…

Waymo does seem to be ahead technically. They've been working on the hard cases for years, while the other guys are still struggling. They are trying hard to get good situational awareness. One of the few neutral measures we have are CA DMV's disconnect and accident reports, and in those, Waymo has been consistently ahead. Waymo is hooked up with FCA (Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles), of all things. Uber is "fake it 'til y…

Here is the data to support your post.

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-car-... The Numbers Don't Lie: Self-Driving Cars Are Getting Good - Wired

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#349

Post by PuffinBlue »

ghaff wrote: post #321
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

Your kids must be saints. If I had been cooped up with my parents and sibling as a child for 40 hours even in a large van or RV with robo-Uber at the helm, someone would probably have been murdered at some point :-) As for my adult self, lie-flat seating on planes trans-Pacific is OK but it's still pretty boring. Even if I could work at some level in my comfy cross-country van I'd still take a significantly faster op…

I think you perhaps misread the post. It suggests that there is only 12 hours driving per day but the kids would be asleep for at least 8 of those. The idea being drive overnight and stop at the next waypoint (see friends in flyover country/national park etc) during the day. I guess the plan being to do interesting stuff when awake and travel when asleep, for the most part.

I suppose as long as you get in the hours you need to as a remote worker and the sleeping is comfortable then this would be pretty sweet for even very long journeys.

It would take a complete redesign of car interiors to something far more comfortable/secure for lying down but no reason that problem couldn't be solved.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#350

Post by falcor84 »

Nition wrote: post #323
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never will happen. Latency is a law of nature. 60mph === 8.8 ft / 100ms. Near misses and close calls with unexpected objects can't afford the additional delay of a radio round trip that may or may not be working to make safety critical decisions. All situational awareness has to be handled on board for immediate response when needed.

I've worked on a videogame where vehicles are controlled from the client but have their physics done on the server. Server sends car position, and client sends inputs. So I can give some insight into how driveable it might actually be: - - 40-~80ms is driveable - 80-150ms is getting difficult - 150-250ms you're overcorrecting all the time - 250ms+ is completely undriveable That's not trying to avoid sudden obstacles,…

If you set up a control center in each metro area, you could potentially have a sub 10ms RTT.

And I imagine that in a large percentage of cases the car's sensors might indicate potential danger with enough advance warning for the remote driver to take over.

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