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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#331

Post by ghaff »

djsumdog wrote: post #319
peoplewindow wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would self-ownership ever be the goal though? I can see people just moving en-masse to Lyft/Uber type services that use a mix of people and machines, with people eventually being phased out, and simply giving up their own cars (except for those who genuinely enjoy driving).

You can't have self-ownership. It's not remotely possible due to the safety considerations. Self driving cars need to have more oversight than FAA/aircraft. Even with self driving vehicles, America will still have terrible traffic. If anything, self driving vehicles will make things even worse, instead of America finally fixing its broken/non-existent mass transit system. I wrote about this a while back. Basically ev…

If you can't own (or lease, but that's just a financing variant) a self-driving car, the concept is going to be basically a non-starter. People who already take taxis/Uber/Lyft/etc. will appreciate a 50% cut or so in rates but anyone else who already drives a car daily will just pass for most of the same reasons they own a car today.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#332

Post by landryraccoon »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time.

This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars on the road. It's possible that self driving cars will be more space efficient on the road, but ten times more efficient? I think it's more likely that there will just be way more cars on the road and traffic will worsen considerably.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#333

Post by myrandomcomment »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I love my cars. That being said it took 1.5 hours to drive the 30 miles to work today with traffic down the 17/85/101. I would sign up for this in a second and sell one of the cars.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#334

Post by whiddershins »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

Your comment was interesting. However, I found the use of all caps very distracting. From the guidelines:

“Please don't use uppercase for emphasis. If you want to emphasize a word or phrase, put asterisks around it and it will get italicized.”

Just my two cents.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#335

Post by ghaff »

sangnoir wrote: post #287
jacquesm wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Airplane seatbelts are only mandatory during take-off and landing as well as turbulence. It will be a very long time before any kind of driving is as safe as commercial air travel.

I wasn't talking about the laws, I was referring to the comfort baked into the design: I have slept while flying with my seat-belt on; it's not uncomfortable. While not legally mandated, most airlines encourage people to keep their seat-belts on during cruise - this is good advice that I take to heart because turbulence is unpredictable; sudden loss of elevation are known to happen.

It's also the case that a loosely-buckled aircraft lap belt will probably keep you from making an acquaintance with the ceiling if the plane decides to suddenly make you very aware of the concept of inertia. On the other hand, should a car ram into something or something into it, the same thing is going to be pretty near useless.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#337

Post by ghaff »

monk_e_boy wrote: post #324
ghaff wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your kids must be saints. If I had been cooped up with my parents and sibling as a child for 40 hours even in a large van or RV with robo-Uber at the helm, someone would probably have been murdered at some point :-) As for my adult self, lie-flat seating on planes trans-Pacific is OK but it's still pretty boring. Even if I could work at some level in my comfy cross-country van I'd still take a significantly faster op…

But you can stop and get out, see new things. Journeys are adventures. I let my kids stop us and we all get out and go see whatever.

Sure. A roadtrip--though that's still a long roadtrip. But if you're robo-pedal-to-the-metal across the country instead of flying you're not doing a lot of adventuring along the way.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#338

Post by [deleted] »

vkou wrote: post #309
zjaffee wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car pool lanes will likely be a big reason people choose to pool in autonomous cars. I imagine that self driving cars will make traffic much worse, and we will see a movement where cities create more and more HOV lanes to reduce traffic in such situations.

There's a radical idea that could be looked into - have a very large autonomous car, carrying 20-100 people. With enough of them, we could reduce traffic, save money (Compared to the cost of private vehicle ownership) - and the best part is, from the perspective of the riders, it will be self-driving. Why should we invest into self-driving carpools, when buses are cheaper, and more efficient?

[deleted]

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#339

Post by modeless »

landryraccoon wrote: post #332
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

You are absolutely right, and this is not widely understood yet. I expect people to live farther from work and spend more time in cars and in traffic. On the other hand, need for parking will plummet and that should free up a bunch of space in cities, increasing density. I wonder if there is money to be made betting on this in the markets? Which companies will benefit, or lose, from these shifts?

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#340

Post by aknosis »

nwatson wrote: post #13

>>> "Waymo will be operating a fully autonomous ride hailing service without any humans at the wheel ... Waymo wants to broaden the geographic scope of its trial, starting with expansion in the near-term to cover the entire Phoenix metro area, which represents more acreage than the whole of the Greater London area, he noted" My family is mostly in Tempe / Mesa area (near Chandler, AZ) and during my last few visits I'…

I just like the idea that a private company can _disrupt_ transportation in such an area where mass transit sucks.

Personally, I would be much more inclined to commute if I could use that time more effectively (Netflix, offline coding, even napping).

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