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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#321

Post by ghaff »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

Your kids must be saints. If I had been cooped up with my parents and sibling as a child for 40 hours even in a large van or RV with robo-Uber at the helm, someone would probably have been murdered at some point :-) As for my adult self, lie-flat seating on planes trans-Pacific is OK but it's still pretty boring. Even if I could work at some level in my comfy cross-country van I'd still take a significantly faster option given the choice.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#322

Post by tigershark »

wskinner wrote: post #306
titzer wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) It's really sad that the United States has let passenger rail deteriorate to the point that people are forced into this situation. Really, really poor foresight.

Passenger rail in the United States probably doesn’t have the same economics as the other places you’re thinking of. I recently drove across part of the country, and it is shocking how much space there is with absolutely nothing there. There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80 without cell service or signs of habitation. If you live in a city, it’s easy to forget that the United States is much, much, bigger than Europe or…

What? Europe is actually bigger than US. US is less than 10M Km^2, Europe is more than 10M Km^2

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#323

Post by Nition »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #284
Jyaif wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no good reason; it's likely what they'll do.

Never will happen. Latency is a law of nature. 60mph === 8.8 ft / 100ms. Near misses and close calls with unexpected objects can't afford the additional delay of a radio round trip that may or may not be working to make safety critical decisions. All situational awareness has to be handled on board for immediate response when needed.

I've worked on a videogame where vehicles are controlled from the client but have their physics done on the server. Server sends car position, and client sends inputs. So I can give some insight into how driveable it might actually be:

- - 40-~80ms is driveable

- 80-150ms is getting difficult

- 150-250ms you're overcorrecting all the time

- 250ms+ is completely undriveable

That's not trying to avoid sudden obstacles, that's just making turns etc that you already intended to make. Avoiding anything sudden would be impossible much earlier. I agree remote control over Internet will never happen.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#324

Post by monk_e_boy »

ghaff wrote: post #321
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

Your kids must be saints. If I had been cooped up with my parents and sibling as a child for 40 hours even in a large van or RV with robo-Uber at the helm, someone would probably have been murdered at some point :-) As for my adult self, lie-flat seating on planes trans-Pacific is OK but it's still pretty boring. Even if I could work at some level in my comfy cross-country van I'd still take a significantly faster op…

But you can stop and get out, see new things. Journeys are adventures. I let my kids stop us and we all get out and go see whatever.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#325

Post by scirocco »

FreakyT wrote: post #290
notahacker wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.

I feel like a car has greater potential for comfort than even a "comfortable" reclining bus seat. For example, right now the idea of a folding bed in a car isn't something you'll ever see as an option, since it would only really appeal to people trying to live in their cars, which probably don't overlap much with the "people who buy fancy cars with fancy extras" market segment. However, in a future where a car can au…

A bed. With seat belt :)

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#326

Post by shitals »

esfandia wrote: post #157

What simulators, if any, do these self-driving car companies use for testing and development? Is any of these simulators available to the general public (I'm guessing probably not)? I read about something called Carcraft in Waymo's case, but it doesn't seem available.

We at Microsoft Research have been developing this: https://github.com/microsoft/airsim. It has car model to test self-driving algorithms.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#327

Post by ghaff »

3pt14159 wrote: post #208
Animats wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo does seem to be ahead technically. They've been working on the hard cases for years, while the other guys are still struggling. They are trying hard to get good situational awareness. One of the few neutral measures we have are CA DMV's disconnect and accident reports, and in those, Waymo has been consistently ahead. Waymo is hooked up with FCA (Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles), of all things. Uber is "fake it 'til y…

One question I can't seem to find a good answer for is this: Why doesn't the self-driving tech hand off control to a remote driver if the internet connection is good enough and there is enough warning? Even with a couple seconds notice a primed human could take the wheel and do the right thing when the sensors aren't making sense.

"Your upcoming crash is very important to us. Please stay on the line and a representative will be with you shortly."

There is no "primed" human on the line or you might as well just have a driver. And leaving aside issues of controlling remotely, you're probably talking on the order of minutes for someone to establish situational awareness, figure out what's going on, and take control. Which may be fine for something like Onstar but not for time-critical vehicle control.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#328

Post by titzer »

wskinner wrote: post #306
titzer wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) It's really sad that the United States has let passenger rail deteriorate to the point that people are forced into this situation. Really, really poor foresight.

Passenger rail in the United States probably doesn’t have the same economics as the other places you’re thinking of. I recently drove across part of the country, and it is shocking how much space there is with absolutely nothing there. There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80 without cell service or signs of habitation. If you live in a city, it’s easy to forget that the United States is much, much, bigger than Europe or…

> There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80...

Logistically speaking, empty places are really, really easy to build rail through. (Politically they may not be).

These rail networks already exist, but they are often not dual line, aren't engineered to support fast trains, and there aren't passenger rail options that utilize them. All of these factors are due to consistent under investment because of chick-and-egg and political problems. It's a real failure of national investment.

You can Google around but the cost per mile of new railroad track is comparable, if not a bit less, than interstate highway. And there are _tons_ of miles of interstate highways.

The US has just chosen poorly.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#329

Post by LrnByTeach »

ugh123 wrote: post #315
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I think Google providing/licensing the software and tech to other manufacturers is risky and leaves open the possibility for a new provider to slide in and undercut with each car provider. Google should leverage their early position and corner the market where they'll be a sole player and dominate for the longterm.

Let us explore the case of competitor offering software by under cutting Google with low price .

Let us take the established known history of 'Evolution of Android on smart phones'. By 2010 as Android share is growing world wide, everybody know there is big money to be made in FUTURE ( By Ads and other means ) by supplying Mobile OS even at free of cost at THAT time.

But nobody is able to do it, even microsoft with it Billions even after after offering Mobile OS Free to vendors .

Now with self-driving Car software, google with DeepMind, Self-driving Teams hundreds of Deep Learning engineering working and developed advanced Neural nets have at least the edge of few years over competation.

Again in 2025, google will choose to limit as "software system supplier" from the "position of strength" that is

1) Let the FLEET companies compete for LOW MARGIN monthly SUBSCRIPTION FEES and provide high value software

2) By limiting as software players, it treats all FLEETS as equals avoiding the "formation of Consortium of" FLEET & Car Manufactures".

Beyond 2025, both FLEET and Car manufacture will be SAME ONE Entity, With out running FLEET, you can not Survive as CAR Manufacturer as there are FEW "end User Buyers" left as majority start moving to "on-demand Summon Monthly Subscription" pay model .

2017 US new Car& Truck Sales are at 17 Million Vehicles , by 2022 it will reduce to 14 Million, then by 2025 10 Millions, then the decline Accelerates .

Even number of different CAR Models are around 500 worldwide, by 2025+ they should reduce to 100 models and Lots of mergers and shutdown of CAR companies

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#330

Post by dragonwriter »

wskinner wrote: post #306
titzer wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) It's really sad that the United States has let passenger rail deteriorate to the point that people are forced into this situation. Really, really poor foresight.

Passenger rail in the United States probably doesn’t have the same economics as the other places you’re thinking of. I recently drove across part of the country, and it is shocking how much space there is with absolutely nothing there. There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80 without cell service or signs of habitation. If you live in a city, it’s easy to forget that the United States is much, much, bigger than Europe or…

> If you live in a city, it’s easy to forget that the United States is much, much, bigger than Europe or Japan.

I assume you mean “less densely populated” (bigger, per capita) rather than actually bigger; it's actually smaller, not bigger, than Europe.

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