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Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

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Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#241
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Precision strikes could probably take out their nuclear and missile program, and much of the top leadership, and probably cause the regime to eventually collapse. The problem is their artillery, spread throughout the south of the country, that poses a major threat to South Korea.

Agreed. And which was the stated reason for the Clinton administration not bombing North Korea and why I find it weird that North Korea has pushed the nuclear weapon issue. If North Korea can kill tens of thousands of people in Seoul in a few minutes with just artillery and no one wants to be responsible for that... then why do they feel the need for nukes?

Because they feel the United States might take the risk of damage to South Korea. As long as US citizens aren't involved (other than a few tourists and business people in Seoul), the US has less skin in the game. If NK can directly threaten the US, the US has to be more careful.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again you are missing the point NK has about “11,000” cannons pointed at Seoul these are fixed installations capable of being destroyed in a conventional preemptive strike before anyone gets the order to fire. By the time it would take China to detect a US attack, figure out what to do, deliver a message to the NK leadership and that message can be relayed to the field there won’t be many canons left. I think you don…

What you say is directly contradicted by the quoted words of a retired Major General in the article I previously cited. If you want to convince you me you are more knowledgeable or truthful than what was presented there, you'll need to cite some source. No offense, but when it comes to matters of military action, I'm going to take the word of someone with is or was relatively high in the military over a pseudo-anonym…

It is pretty rich to repeat over and over again statements like, "I'm sure that" and "I believe" as well as a host of other implications with nothing to back any of your assertions except a Huffington Post article, then try to high road your way out of the corner you built for yourself by demanding citations.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you say is directly contradicted by the quoted words of a retired Major General in the article I previously cited. If you want to convince you me you are more knowledgeable or truthful than what was presented there, you'll need to cite some source. No offense, but when it comes to matters of military action, I'm going to take the word of someone with is or was relatively high in the military over a pseudo-anonym…

It is pretty rich to repeat over and over again statements like, "I'm sure that" and "I believe" as well as a host of other implications with nothing to back any of your assertions except a Huffington Post article, then try to high road your way out of the corner you built for yourself by demanding citations.

What else do you do when people start calling your beliefs into question? You fall back on facts and expert sources to back up your assertions. And I believe I'm still the only person to have done so in this direct thread, even if only through a Huffington post article. But the point of that article wasnt that it was from the Huffington post, but that they had an expert source, and that's who I referenced.

I was a bit incredulous when I referenced someone that k rw that they were talking about and it was ignored. I'm even more so now when I'm actually being called out for bringing some expert information to this pissing contest.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is pretty rich to repeat over and over again statements like, "I'm sure that" and "I believe" as well as a host of other implications with nothing to back any of your assertions except a Huffington Post article, then try to high road your way out of the corner you built for yourself by demanding citations.

What else do you do when people start calling your beliefs into question? You fall back on facts and expert sources to back up your assertions. And I believe I'm still the only person to have done so in this direct thread, even if only through a Huffington post article. But the point of that article wasnt that it was from the Huffington post, but that they had an expert source, and that's who I referenced. I was a bi…

I'm in class so I can't post as detailed as I wish, but there are at least three links in this comment section from much more credible sources that might inform your opinion more. I recommend the New Yorker article first. You need to segregate your emotions from your reasoning. Having a misinformed opinion is not a crime, but it is correctable. My chief issue with your comments is, as I stated before, your general implications and assertions, particularly in regards to China and Best Korean competency. I too am still learning just how isolated, geographically, ideologically, and intellectually, the Juche government of NK is.

Don't hear what I'm not saying: I think you are ignorant of some of the facts, not incapable of understanding. I see now that my initial comment was overly petulant and could have been more constructively worded. I will post some links I find helpful when I get out. But should you gave the time there are some enlightening docs on documentaryheaven.com (their site is a huge mess) about Best Korea. Be well.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alloy form used for tools is only hazardous in powdered form It's fine to machine as long as you're making actual chips (how do you think they make all those tools for the oil industry).

If I had to guess I would have said CNC equipment in an oil bath...

Or just stick it on the old Bridgeport and tell the intern to make a thick chip.

Yeah, CNC + coolant is how you'd do it if you're making the tool.

If you're making a custom tool from a broken tool you have lying around then you use the Bridgeport and Intern method.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#246
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been many accidents, of a kind where even one is one too many. Given the potential damage, I certainly don't feel comfortable with your assessment that there wasn't any danger it would go off. Likely these things happen more often than is publicly known, yet we've not (yet) seen a full-on swiss cheese kind of accident.

Nuclear bombs aren't like normal bombs. You can burn them or blow them up with conventional explosives and they won't go off.

Yes, but there are two risks to that: 1) the conventional explosive detonates and it's similar enough to "normal" operating procedures to create critical mass and the nuke detonates

2) the radioactive material is spread out over a large area, contaminating

neither are as benign as an ordinary explosive of any yield, and I'd rather not risk any of that, at all.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#247
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey it's not all bad, we managed to convince Ukraine to destroy their nuclear weapons and it worked out really well for them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

not to mention gaddafi

If you think Gaddafi was a particularly bad guy, you need to watch Adam Curtis' excellent documentary 'Hypernormalisation', still available on the BBC iplayer, and probably elsewhere too

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#248
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not that we are blasé about nuclear weapons. For the most part we are completely ignorant about them. No, the problem is that we assume that we wouldn’t put clowns in charge of something this dangerous. So when we put clowns in charge of nuclear weapons and they inevitably fuck up (and not just a bit), we either refuse to believe it is even possible or we assume it is a rare accident.

If you read the literature, there were plenty of people in the industry who were well aware of these problems and worked tirelessly to fix them (making them clown-proof), since around 1960. The military brass actively worked to thwart their efforts.

I was referring to the general public, as (mis)informed by the media. But also the general attitude the public tends to have about whether or not people in important positions are competent.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What else do you do when people start calling your beliefs into question? You fall back on facts and expert sources to back up your assertions. And I believe I'm still the only person to have done so in this direct thread, even if only through a Huffington post article. But the point of that article wasnt that it was from the Huffington post, but that they had an expert source, and that's who I referenced. I was a bi…

I'm in class so I can't post as detailed as I wish, but there are at least three links in this comment section from much more credible sources that might inform your opinion more. I recommend the New Yorker article first. You need to segregate your emotions from your reasoning. Having a misinformed opinion is not a crime, but it is correctable. My chief issue with your comments is, as I stated before, your general im…

> but there are at least three links in this comment section from much more credible sources that might inform your opinion more.

And none as direct ancestors to this comment. If you follow this directly up thread up you'll find I'm the only one to have sourced any reference beyond the very top level comment, which was an Amazon link to a book. Even if we expand to branches from tzs second level comment, there's almost no references.

> I recommend the New Yorker article first.

I did find what I assume is the New Yorker article you mentioned in a sub-thread that starts out talking about Qaddafi, but it just seems to bolster my point:

Six years into Kim Jong Un’s reign, some analysts in Seoul argue that senior Party officials can overrule or direct him, but U.S. intelligence believes that Kim is in sole command. ... That left Jong Un, who had received a degree in physics from Kim Il Sung University, had trained as an artillery officer, and was active in security and political work.

So an intelligent person that is well versed in the challenges and threats artillery faces? Are we to assume he ignores the obvious weaknesses that he should know of (since he's trained in their aspects) then?

The Obama Administration studied the potential costs and benefits of a preventive war intended to destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Its conclusion, according to Rice, in the Times, was that it would be “lunacy,” resulting in “hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of casualties.” ... If Kim used his stockpiles of sarin gas and biological weapons, the toll would reach the millions. U.S. and South Korean forces could eventually overwhelm the North Korean military, but, by any measure, the conflict would yield one of the worst mass killings in the modern age.

So the same source you called out as worth reading that might inform my opinion mirror what I've been stating all along. Attacking North Korea would result in massive casualties in South Korea. There is no current strategy that would result in us wiping out the offensive capability of North Korea before they can cause massive damage.

> My chief issue with your comments is, as I stated before, your general implications and assertions, particularly in regards to China and Best Korean competency.

So, my implications and assertions that a nation that views its defense a existential priority won't put the bare minimum of 1910's level technology in place to make sure they have secure land lines run to important military locations? This is a country with artillery that is literally "dug in", as in they've placed the entire thing below ground with large hanger doors that can be closed to shield the artillery for defense, and opened for attack.

NK has an estimated 12,000 pieces of tube artillery, and another 2,300 multiple launch rocket systems.[1] That we would be capable of knocking all these out, or that they don't have specific orders on exactly how to proceed should the command structure deteriorate that would result in them commencing attack requires more explanation than "we'll take out the cannons quickly" which is the argument most the responses have put forth, and as I've references previously from educated sources, that is not the case.

I'll just note that I'm still citing references, my own and ones you pointed out, which still support my argument. If you can't cite something yourself, perhaps you should examine your own beliefs, and why there's no evidence to be found for them.

1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/10/02/why-th...

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear bombs aren't like normal bombs. You can burn them or blow them up with conventional explosives and they won't go off.

Yes, but there are two risks to that: 1) the conventional explosive detonates and it's similar enough to "normal" operating procedures to create critical mass and the nuke detonates 2) the radioactive material is spread out over a large area, contaminating neither are as benign as an ordinary explosive of any yield, and I'd rather not risk any of that, at all.

It's hard to imagine your #1 could happen. The compression wave in a nuke has to be just right to achieve critical mass. It's not an easy thing to pull off deliberately under the best of circumstances

#2 is sort of half true. You wouldn't get nuclear material over a large area because it's so heavy. You could get a big plume from Chernobyl, but that was because there was a nuclear reaction going on, and it wasn't uranium that got boosted into the sky by the fire.

Still an expensive mess, but a pretty localized mess.

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