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Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

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Re: Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

#11

Post by HNer »

HNer wrote: post #7
alnayyir wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PG's Startup Checklist Been friends Worked together for awhile Don't come together for only the startup If close friends, stick with it even if things look bad because things eventually get better. Don't want companies run by committee. Need clear leadership, don't want unclear sense of who the primary decision maker is. Want to know who they should address a question to. But not a megalomaniac, just want somebody wh…

This does not convey the sentiment that Paul expressed. I took away : friends will work on a project through the bad times out of loyalty (which happens to be a good thing), while co founders who were not friends will bail at the point when the walls come crashing down.

Samuel_Michon, That's what I said... (almost) since you misstated one of the points 'if for no other reason than the co founders like working with each other' when PG actually said they will continue to work out of loyalty and not wanting to let their friend down.

Re: Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

#14

Post by gigafemtonano »

I founded a startup that was featured by the WSJ all by myself and have gone on to work on a new project which has some traction. I applied to YC with another idea and didn't "make the cut." I personally take that to be a greater challenge to succeede than any friendship or relationship could obligate me to. PG may have a checklist which works most of the time but I suspect that's the first step toward missing the outliers who define true success. No one's going to take the next Google seriously 'till its too late.

Re: Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

#15

Post by derefr »

gigafemtonano wrote: post #14

I founded a startup that was featured by the WSJ all by myself and have gone on to work on a new project which has some traction. I applied to YC with another idea and didn't "make the cut." I personally take that to be a greater challenge to succeede than any friendship or relationship could obligate me to. PG may have a checklist which works most of the time but I suspect that's the first step toward missing the ou…

But for someone whose whole job is to find, and invest in, "the next Google", you'd think there could be some sort of recognizable features that a Bayesian classifier could learn as positive weights (as, if there weren't, that person would guess correctly at no greater a rate than chance, and would therefore be replaced by a small shell-script/die roll.) Those recognizable features should then be able to be decomposed into discrete features—which could be written down as a checklist.

To put it another way—there are only two ways to do a job whose output is boolean (invest/don't invest): either algorithmically, or randomly. Any judging algorithm can be approximated by a checklist.

Re: Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

#16

Post by chegra »

hmm... I don't think as an entrepreneur we should seek to optimize these metrics. These rules are ideal for Paul since they reduces his risk for investing, which is necessary as a prudent investor. Y-Combinator would be over the moon if 6 out of ten start-ups were successful. If you were one of those 4 who didn't make it, it would be devastating for you.

Ultimately as the entrepreneur your rules should be gear towards gaining traction. Think about it, you would be over the moon if 6 out of 10 persons sign-up. Gaining customers is your way of reducing risk. Concoct your rules for reducing your risk. I think Eric Reis, Steve Blank and the lean start-up movement are doing a great job at this.

So my advice is don't try to focus on meeting this check list but focus on obtaining traction. Oddly enough, all investors love traction.

Re: Paul Graham’s Checklist, Would You Make The Cut?

#18

Post by chegra »

derefr wrote: post #15
gigafemtonano wrote: post #14

I founded a startup that was featured by the WSJ all by myself and have gone on to work on a new project which has some traction. I applied to YC with another idea and didn't "make the cut." I personally take that to be a greater challenge to succeede than any friendship or relationship could obligate me to. PG may have a checklist which works most of the time but I suspect that's the first step toward missing the ou…

But for someone whose whole job is to find, and invest in, "the next Google", you'd think there could be some sort of recognizable features that a Bayesian classifier could learn as positive weights (as, if there weren't, that person would guess correctly at no greater a rate than chance, and would therefore be replaced by a small shell-script/die roll.) Those recognizable features should then be able to be decompose…

I think PG is on the right track with his investing strategy.

Lets say his probability of finding the next Google with this rule was a arbitary value of 0.001. I wouldn't know its exact value but I'm assuming it's non-zero.

He would have to invest in 693 companies before he has a 50% chance of hitting a google. I don't think they have gone that far as yet. It's just a matter of time.

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