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Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

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Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#161

Post by dogma1138 »

dboreham wrote: post #155
dogma1138 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assuming that NK has an early warning system which consists of more than a guy with binoculars and circa 1960s radar which they don’t. The US is more than capable of launching a preemptive strike against NK without Seoul being hit nearly as hard as one would think. The main reason they won’t isn’t the shelling of Seoul is that China won’t allow US troops on its border and neither the US, SK nor China wants to dea…

>You assuming that NK has an early warning system which consists of more than a guy with binoculars and circa 1960s radar which they don’t. You're assuming Trump won't tweet our launch orders..

Even if he would It wouldn’t matter the tomahawks would hit before you could wake Kimmie J up.

People are used to being able to pick the phone and call someone that doesn’t work everywhere.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#162

Post by taurath »

exhilaration wrote: post #53
taurath wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Major conflicts only happen in non nuclear states. In all honesty I’ll bet that’s what has kept India and Pakistan from a war.

Ahem... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_confli...

After 1971 it has been relatively "minor" conflicts. Granted, none of this is a long time on the world scale, but thus far it has brought a lot more restraint.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#163

Post by cocoablazing »

kbenson wrote: post #124
wildmusings wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure we can. We have the capability to totally annihilate as much of North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack. The question is if we are willing to do it, and kill millions of North Korean civilians. Trump is sure trying to convince the North Koreans that he is.

From missile launch to missile detonation is enough time for NK to shell large chunks of high population areas of SK. They have the guns already pointed and ready for exactly this reason.

DPRK leadership wouldn't know a strike was underway until most of their military capability could be destroyed by stratcom.

A strike would not originate from North Dakota -- it would come from stealth bombers right on top of their artillery forces and command and control infrastructure, as well as from nearby boomers (ctf134) launching at a pace of a dozen warheads per minute, per boat, throwing mk-4/5's with recently upgraded fuzing systems.

When the LEP is complete, they will be GPS guided and accurate enough to destroy hardened targets from kinetic energy alone.

If the DPRK threat continues to escalate, and the US were concerned enough, F-35's could be upgraded with B61-12 harnesses, adding a nuclear stealth armada with pinpoint-accurate weapons to the arsenal. US fbm's are also not equipped to close to capacity due to arms control agreements. During initial flight testing, maneuvers consistent with deployment of 14 warheads were observed, meaning an fbm could deploy 336 warheads.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#164

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

wildmusings wrote: post #122
scrumper wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not quite an accurate read though, at least as far as NK. The US can’t really make a credible military threat because of the north’s proximity to the south, an important US ally and a country all but guaranteed to be mortally wounded in the event of north/USA hostilities.

Sure we can. We have the capability to totally annihilate as much of North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack. The question is if we are willing to do it, and kill millions of North Korean civilians. Trump is sure trying to convince the North Koreans that he is.

If you "annihilate as much as North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack" you'd also be annihilating much of South Korea- and China, and every country bordering North Korea to boot.

That's unless your scientists have found a way to control nuclear fallout so that it stays within national borders.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#165

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

dogma1138 wrote: post #129
kbenson wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From missile launch to missile detonation is enough time for NK to shell large chunks of high population areas of SK. They have the guns already pointed and ready for exactly this reason.

You assuming that NK has an early warning system which consists of more than a guy with binoculars and circa 1960s radar which they don’t. The US is more than capable of launching a preemptive strike against NK without Seoul being hit nearly as hard as one would think. The main reason they won’t isn’t the shelling of Seoul is that China won’t allow US troops on its border and neither the US, SK nor China wants to dea…

>> The US is more than capable of launching a preemptive strike against NK without Seoul being hit nearly as hard as one would think.

North Korea doesn't have to do any hitting. If the US nukes the North, the South will take the fallout full in the face.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#166

Post by nasredin »

kbenson wrote: post #152
dogma1138 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn’t have sophisticated early warning systems either, nor does it have a central military command nor integrated command and control infrastructure they’ve started one in 2011 but as their military ranks are a political appointment the competency of their military leadership is lacking at best. You seem to not understand exactly what the situation is even if NK would get an early warning say 10min it would n…

> You seem to not understand exactly what the situation is even if NK would get an early warning say 10min it would not even get it past the guy who answers the first phone get alone to the military in the field. You seriously think high level Chinese diplomats don't have very quick communication access to Kim Jong-un? Why would you think that? I think it's very likely they have phone access to multiple aids of which…

That's because our system has checks and balances and a heirarchy. Kim Jong-un likely has direct phone access to the cammanders in the field, and through secured lines. That's the first thing you do, and that doesn't take a genius to figure out.

IIRC POTUS can order a nuclear strike by himself. No checks and balances.

The "two man rule" is basically two men check the authenticity of the order (IIRC it is encrypted Twitter-length message) and or turn the keys to "vote" launch. Each launch crew in two silos (4 people) need to vote to launch to actually launch.

There's not a lot of information on the order of succession and the two-man rule on the Internet. ;(

I'd think if everyone above is dead or unreachable the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or the Secretary of Education can start nuclear war all by themselves too. No checks or balances either.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#167

Post by wildmusings »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #164
wildmusings wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure we can. We have the capability to totally annihilate as much of North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack. The question is if we are willing to do it, and kill millions of North Korean civilians. Trump is sure trying to convince the North Koreans that he is.

If you "annihilate as much as North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack" you'd also be annihilating much of South Korea- and China, and every country bordering North Korea to boot. That's unless your scientists have found a way to control nuclear fallout so that it stays within national borders.

That’s a common misconception. Fallout from nuclear weapons is only a problem if detonated at the wrong altitude.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#168

Post by dragonwriter »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #164
wildmusings wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure we can. We have the capability to totally annihilate as much of North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack. The question is if we are willing to do it, and kill millions of North Korean civilians. Trump is sure trying to convince the North Koreans that he is.

If you "annihilate as much as North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack" you'd also be annihilating much of South Korea- and China, and every country bordering North Korea to boot. That's unless your scientists have found a way to control nuclear fallout so that it stays within national borders.

> If you "annihilate as much as North Korea as we need in order to prevent a counter attack" you'd also be annihilating much of South Korea- and China, and every country bordering North Korea to boot.

So...Russia?

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#169

Post by adventured »

hangonhn wrote: post #105
Xixi wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite true. Though western countries didn't attack Gaddafi before he gave up nuke either. The speculation I've heard (on radio, so I cannot paste a link) is that NK analysis is roughly: NK's regime is safe as long as China sees it as useful (probably using NK as some sort of buffer state against US), but sooner or later that support will end. Then only nuclear weapons will ensure NK's regime survival. It's rational,…

Not saying the hypothesis you put forward is wrong but I've heard a very convincing complementary one: Kim's goals are: 1. Survival of the Kim leadership 2. Reunification of Korea To achieve the latter (and also the prior), he needs to remove the US from intervening in any conflict on the Korean peninsula. If he had a credible threat to any major US city, then the US would have to weight the freedom of S. Korea vs. t…

Kim has a substantial problem in that premise, regarding China.

At this point we have to assume North Korea will soon have dozens of nuclear weapons (basically as many as they can manage to make), and in a few years that they'll have dozens capable of being placed on an ICBM that can hit most US cities. Their progress has accelerated dramatically, that will probably make such numbers very feasible.

Now, following the premise of keeping the US out of it by way of the risk that the US will lose several or more of its major cities. Here's the problem. If the US loses a dozen of its major cities, we'll destroy China in retaliation for making the North Korea situation possible to begin with. There's no scenario where the US just absorbs that kind of vast destruction, trades nukes with North Korea and says: oh well, woe is me. China will lose hundreds of millions of its people - Beijing, Shanghai, etc - if the US sees its biggest cities nuked. The American public will demand all enablers of North Korea be held accountable, it'll lead to the classic global nuclear war scenario, a billion people die.

Re: Fifty-three year old nuclear missile accident revealed

#170

Post by dogma1138 »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #165
dogma1138 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assuming that NK has an early warning system which consists of more than a guy with binoculars and circa 1960s radar which they don’t. The US is more than capable of launching a preemptive strike against NK without Seoul being hit nearly as hard as one would think. The main reason they won’t isn’t the shelling of Seoul is that China won’t allow US troops on its border and neither the US, SK nor China wants to dea…

>> The US is more than capable of launching a preemptive strike against NK without Seoul being hit nearly as hard as one would think. North Korea doesn't have to do any hitting. If the US nukes the North, the South will take the fallout full in the face.

The US doesn't need a nuclear strike, the fixed artillery installations can be hit with cruise missiles and air strikes, Pyongyang can be levelled with conventional bombing.

People also overestimate the amount of fallout from modern nuclear weapons, it won't be a picnic site anytime soon but it's not going to turn into a Fall out game either.

Nuking the DMZ isn't going to happen unless it's to stop a flood of 200 million zombies, but nuking Pyongyang isn't going to have drastic effects on SK due to fallout or radiation worse case people would have to drink bottled water for a few weeks.

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