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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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271–280 of 318 posts

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#271
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Much better value, larger size, better fuel economy, more conventional, more power, more range, and superchargers. Cost per mile of range: $200 for the 2018 leaf, 132 for the Model 3. 147 hp vs 258 hp, 10" of extra length and 6" of extra width, over twice the range at less than half the capacity. The Tesla is way superior to any other electric…

> The supercharger alone makes it the obvious buy for almost all consumers. Perhaps in parts of the USA but not necessarily in Europe. For example there is ONE supercharger station on the whole island of Ireland, at Ballacolla south-west of Dublin. I've lived on the island for 40 years and have never even been to that part of it.

I mean... it's only 290 miles from Killarney to Londonderry. You really only need one supercharger. If you live in the middle of the island you can drive literally anywhere on a single charge.

The supercharger isn't like a gas station, it's only meant for long trips. Ireland could probably do with one on the west coast too, but it still serves its purpose in Dublin. You wouldn't be able to drive all the way south to north in a Leaf or Bolt.

But yeah, long trips are much less common in Europe and you'd think Tesla would do worse (especially since even in America the model S is a relatively large sedan), but without checking the numbers AFAIK they do better. I would guess the price point puts it in the range of people who want big cars anyway. Probably it just fills a niche that has been very empty in Europe- wealthy climate-aware buyers with preferences for stylish mid-high level cars.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#272
post #264
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might have something to do with countries cutting the subsidies for electric cars. I know in Denmark the price of a Tesla is set to more than double in the next years as they normalice registration taxes which were previously omitted on electric cars.

Are you saying that registration taxes in Denmark amount to tens of thousands of dollars?

Yes. A new car is subject to a registration tax of 105%, or 150% over ~$16,000. New cars in Denmark are very, very expensive.

http://www.skm.dk/skattetal/satser/satser-og-beloebsgraenser...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#273
post #264
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might have something to do with countries cutting the subsidies for electric cars. I know in Denmark the price of a Tesla is set to more than double in the next years as they normalice registration taxes which were previously omitted on electric cars.

Are you saying that registration taxes in Denmark amount to tens of thousands of dollars?

> electric car dealers were for a long time spared the jaw-dropping import tax of 180 percent that Denmark applies on vehicles fueled by a traditional combustion engine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/denmark-i...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#274
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your opinion is parallelizing software development is impossible? Interesting.

This is not an unorthodox or unreasonable position. The Mythical Man-Month is a classic text in software engineering and project management and essentially argues this very point. The analogy to child birth is actually also a classic one made originally by the author. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks%27s_law

Of course just like everyone on HN am aware of the book and heard this quote a billion+ times. And of course I know it's badly misused in this particular case (as it often is).

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#275
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your opinion is parallelizing software development is impossible? Interesting.

The more people you put on a single project, the more communication costs - which grow with n! - start to dominate. The solution to that is to structure the project into independent parts that can be done in parallel by smaller amount of people, thus vastly reducing communication waste. But whether or not you can divide your project in such a way is a question of its scope, and of design decisions you make.

My only point was that the quote is often misused and is highly contextual.

There are countless projects where work can be efficiently parallelized. Cramming 30 man years in a month still sounds like a death march but we do know that say Linux kernel which by now is probably a million(†) man-year effort was done faster than in geological time.

† Ok exaggerating but it is huge and with fast paced change throughout whole codebase.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#277
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait...what? Someone built a bunch of charging stations all over the place and they only work with one vendor's cars!?!?

Other car companies are free to make their cars compatible, since Tesla released the patents. It's just that no one has yet.

Note that Tesla has not offered an explicit license for those patents, so there's no guarantee that companies using the patents won't get sued. It was a pure PR stunt.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#278

> But a problem with a subcontractor, compounded with other issues, forced Tesla to start over in certain areas, delaying production. > “We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch,” Musk said, adding that they’d redone “about 20 to 30 man years of software in four weeks” for the battery module. Maybe I'm just overcautious, but I would prefer not to be anywhere in the vicinity of a high-discharge actively cool…

What on earth is in that control software since it take 20-30 man years to write? I mean, charging profile based on input variables such as temperature, total capacity, current capacity, health, available power ect. And then for discharging. The battery and it's controller ought to be a black box you can either feed power or request power from, and query for data. Either I'm missing something fundamental, or the SW s…

This control software is for the manufacturing line. It's a mixture of a game engine and the code to control the robots by signaling each individual servo on the robot arm. Now multiple one robot * 4 lines* multiple stations(at least 6) * more than one robot per station. The game engine simulated the robot state to program then faster without requiring a pendant like it's typically done.

The code you are thinking about Is a copy paste from the model s and x batterry management system which implemented a kalman filter in a dsp to calculate State of charge among other things. That code is not the one being discussed here.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most auto production lines produce nearly 500 cars per shift . Normal cycle times in an auto plant are about one minute. Here's a Mercedes production line.[1] That's a vehicle on a par with Tesla's products. Something is terribly wrong in Fremont. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbfTlwm248k

That E-class production line video is interesting, it's basically the same assembly strategy Tesla uses: all bits of the engine, drivetrain, suspension etc. is assembled into a "skateboard" in one line, while the body gets fitted with all the trim, interior, doors etc. on another line and then dropped onto the skateboard (which you see from 6:30 and out in the video). If Tesla is stuck on a battery bottleneck it's ju…

Well that's what the redesign is meant to fix, no? Supplier can't keep pace so they're either building it in-house or they've designed something that can be supplied easier/by another vendor.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#280

Since this came out as part of the Tesla earnings, here's my recap from their earnings release and call.... - Tesla will be late getting up to 5,000 units a week of Model 3. It will happen at the end of Q1 instead of the end of this year. The bottleneck is batteries. - Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. - The $2.92 a share loss was m…

>Elon has moved his desk to the giga factory as that is where the largest bottleneck is. Elon is the bottleneck

This is they type of figureheadism that I absolutely do not understand and which makes me very nervous about the future of a company.

Great, the boss is in house...now I spend more of my time telling the boss why it isn't fixed yet and less of my time actually fixing it. I'm not saying those things are inherently at odds but they are definitely in tension with each other.

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