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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#191

Post by awakeasleep »

kristianp wrote: post #102
Someone wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”Some lines are at only 500 cars a week.” That sounds better than what Tesla claims. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/549293785... (emphasis added): ”Other lines, such as battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly.” If you can do burst runs of 15 km/hour, that doesn’t mean you can run a th…

"To get that $1.4 billion in revenue, they will need to sell 40k Tesla 3s at $35k each, or 3,000 a week. To get it in margin, even assuming the average model 3 will sell for $50k, they will have to sell 12,000 a week or so (at 20% margin)" It seems like you're assuming that the cash burn will stay at 1.4billion. Expenditure should go down once the production line tooling is complete.

Tesla originally planned to run two production lines but had to drop to a single one, and they're doing it in an expensive and unusual manner, and a second won't fit in their fremont plant, and they still plan to build out the second line in the same unusual 'cold' manner.

This leads me to expect it's reasonable their burn will continue at the same rate.

Furthermore, it's estimated they won't reach 3k a week till the end of 2018.

https://dailykanban.com/2017/10/source-tesla-responsible-mod...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#192

Post by boznz »

sumitgt wrote: post #5

Out of curiosity, has anyone who paid the $1000 to get in line for a Model 3 actually heard back from Tesla? I've never received any communication about timelines at all.

Not heard anything, but I live in NZ so I will be last in the queue, realistically it is more likely to be 2019 before I see mine however that suits me fine as I still need to get better infrastructure in place at home to move to an EV.

The model 3 Reviews so far are pretty positive, I know they are tesla employees cars so they are going to be quite biased, but others have got their hands on them and also posted positive reviews and it looks like a nice car once the software polished.

If something better did come along before I get a delivery date then I will obviously get that instead and ask for a refund, however I have not seen anything I like yet even on the drawing board so I will stick to my Mazda3 until then.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#193

Post by boznz »

gozur88 wrote: post #185
nickik wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking in a bigger scale then just right now Model 3 will make it clear. The way Tesla has transformed the whole car industry and the scale at which they approach the problem is way beyond anybody else. The Bolt can not be produced in the numbers needed for a revolution. The people who produce it are not interested in a revolution in the first place. The stock might be below peak right now, but the scaling they hav…

>The Bolt can not be produced in the numbers needed for a revolution. The people who produce it are not interested in a revolution in the first place. That's an odd argument to be making in favor of a company that's having so much trouble producing cars. Why do you think the Bolt can't be produced in larger numbers? Does Tesla make in a year as many cars as GM makes in a day?

> Why do you think the Bolt can't be produced in larger numbers?

Battery Supply I guess.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#194

Post by sgc »

dzdt wrote: post #73
btian wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then how do you explain Apple making their own SoC?

It is a part of their core product differentiation. They can get better performance and longer battery life by owning the hardware design and OS design and being good at it. Apple in particular understood lomg before competitors that battery life is an extremely important real world metric. Doing their own SOC helps them optimise that.

Batteries are part of Tesla's core differentiation as well. Even if one might argue they make too much in house, taking batteries on seems like a reasonable move to me.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#195

Post by jklp »

aquadrop wrote: post #148
selectodude wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their burn rate is incredible. If they run out of money and nobody is there to give them more, they file for bankruptcy.

They burn it that fast because it brings more money in the future and they have funds reserve. Their net loss is getting smaller proportionally to the revenue constantly. They could stop capital investments any moment and be profitable, but that would mean much slower growth later.

Not sure that's the case as looking at this graph from The Verge, their revenues are growing but their losses are also getting larger proportionally to their revenues.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/1/16593582/tesla-model-3-pr...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#196

Post by saas_co_de »

dmix wrote: post #94
saas_co_de wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely seem to have hit a plateau in terms of demand which was declining before they started to slash prices in order to move inventory. The S/X and are old now and the car market requires new models to keep sales going. That combined with the approaching launches of other high end luxury electric cars does not bode well for future S/X sales. The negative press on autopilot and failure to deliver on autopilo…

> The negative press on autopilot and failure to deliver on autopilot 2.0 Was there more than that accident with the old version? I havent heard much about this...

https://www.fastcompany.com/4043602/a-driver-claimed-teslas-... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4276810/Dashboard-ca... https://qz.com/783009/the-scary-similarities-between-teslas-... https://jalopnik.com/autopilot-blamed-for-tesla-crashing-and... https://electrek.co/2017/03/27/tesla-model-x-autopilot-crash... http://autoweek.com/article/autonomous-cars/tesla-autopilot-... http://fortune.com/2016/05/26/tesla-autopilot-crash/ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/03/the-custo... https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/28/te... https://www.teslarati.com/rare-tesla-model-x-founder-series-... https://www.teslarati.com/lawsuit-alleges-tesla-death-not-ha... http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/04/self-driving-t...

This is a sample of the first 100 articles from Google News on "Tesla Autopilot Crash" - in total you have about 10 unique incidents with 100s of stories in different outlets written about it.

Lots of sensational headlines and a lot of the incidents are pretty dubious about what the actual cause is but to casual readers its adds up to a cloud of doubt about Tesla repeated across many big name media sources.

Most of these same media sources also run plenty of enthusiastic coverage on Tesla so it really depends on your pre-judgements what you take away from it. Tech enthusiasts will tend to minimize the negative stories whereas people not interested in tech who are more safety concerned will give them much more weight.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#197

Post by junkscience2017 »

babesh wrote: post #187

Disclaimer: I own Tesla shares. Tesla has a long history of taking far longer and far more money to achieve a goal than they forecast. They don't show signs of adjusting their forecasts based on previous misses. For the last couple of years the market has given them a pass for that when the market has punished other companies for far less. Tesla has gone to the well again and again to raise money. One concern is that…

> Disclaimer: I own Tesla shares

why do people do this? it is not relevant, helpful or required in order to comment. Anyone with a NASDAQ index fund in their portfolio or 401k has at least one share of Tesla...which is basically everyone here

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#198

Post by azernik »

williamscales wrote: post #10
chollida1 wrote: post #3

Since this came out as part of the Tesla earnings, here's my recap from their earnings release and call.... - Tesla will be late getting up to 5,000 units a week of Model 3. It will happen at the end of Q1 instead of the end of this year. The bottleneck is batteries. - Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. - The $2.92 a share loss was m…

"key elements" of the battery module assembly had to be taken over and redesigned, Musk says. Tesla seems to be taking the opposite approach to Apple here. In my observation, Apple drives its suppliers extremely hard to achieve the quality it requires. Tesla, on the other hand, is too eager to bring any sundry part in house (e.g. car seats). Apple's approach appears to work in that it pushes suppliers to do what's ne…

I'm not sure about the "too" part. This approach has worked quite well for SpaceX - it might not work out for Tesla, but it's too early on this period of massive transition to know for sure.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#199

Post by JumpCrisscross »

paulpauper wrote: post #167
fancyfacebook wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their bond prices are plummeting on this earnings release. The rope may be running out.

then the stock should be at $3 instead of $300 if insolvency is such an issue. obviously there is more than meets the eye here. or this is the short of the decade, more than even 2008.

In my general experience, bond traders tend to be a savvier (if more jittery) lot than stock buyers.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#200

Post by jonahrd »

junkscience2017 wrote: post #197
babesh wrote: post #187

Disclaimer: I own Tesla shares. Tesla has a long history of taking far longer and far more money to achieve a goal than they forecast. They don't show signs of adjusting their forecasts based on previous misses. For the last couple of years the market has given them a pass for that when the market has punished other companies for far less. Tesla has gone to the well again and again to raise money. One concern is that…

> Disclaimer: I own Tesla shares why do people do this? it is not relevant, helpful or required in order to comment. Anyone with a NASDAQ index fund in their portfolio or 401k has at least one share of Tesla...which is basically everyone here

I'm just taking a wild guess that this person isn't being technical and talking about an index fund, but is disclaiming that he or she purposefully purchased shares of Tesla stock
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