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Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

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Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#41

"We would love to build more affordable starter homes, but when high-end homes cost the same to build and are far more profitable, we lose the incentive to build smaller units,” said Isaac Stocks of Azure Northwest Homes, a Seattle-area home builder. That sums it up. Plus, more expensive homes means more property tax revenue, so there's little incentive for state/local gov to encourage lower end housing. Finally, it…

> Finally, it would help to know about financing. How willing are banks to issue loans at the lower end? Which kind of reveals that you think this is a conversation about people below the poverty line buying homes. Which it isn't. It's people not affording homes starting at $1 mil.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#42

Why isn't there a tech company trying to disrupt home construction? People speak of Uber being worth so much because of the giant market it's going after and transportation is big being the second largest consumer expenditure at 17% of wallet share. However housing is first at nearly 30% of wallet share and the biggest dent you can make in that figure is lowering the upfront cost which is several years of income for…

Because the cost is labor, materials, land acquisition and permits, none of which can really be “disrupted”.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#43

Construction pricing is definitely out of control. Part of the problem is that the entire industry is funded with low interest purchase and equity loans and not cash. Another problem seems to be that a lot of construction entities went offline in during the crisis and never came back. Any construction quote easily runs into the $100,000s for even a tiny addition to a house. It's way out of control. If there would exi…

You don't seem to understand what you're talking about. The reason for those months out is because everyone is overbooked, and the pricing reflects demand vs supply.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first part of the solution is to completely eliminate mortgage subsidies and mortgage interest deductions. These do not increase the supply of housing, they only subsidize demand for more expensive houses and increase indebtedness, and increase the flow of capital into non-productive areas of the economy such as mortgage lending and mortgage backed assets. The second part of the solution is to convert all propert…

Another issue is the labor. I haven't personally looked into what the underlying reasons might be, but in Quebec, construction workers have all the power. If they don't show up, come late, under-deliver or do sloppy work, there's not much recourse, there's no one else. Given that these jobs are some of the highest paying relative to education level, there must be some artificial constraint that perpetuates this. If y…

I bet they are all non-union workers?

I'm a contractor, and construction worker.

I guarantee there's no problem getting workers (union) to show up on union projects.

I've known many Canadian Electricians come to San Francisco to work. We call them Travelers. They come because of the pay, and benefits.

Yes--unions do work.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#45

"We would love to build more affordable starter homes, but when high-end homes cost the same to build and are far more profitable, we lose the incentive to build smaller units,” said Isaac Stocks of Azure Northwest Homes, a Seattle-area home builder. That sums it up. Plus, more expensive homes means more property tax revenue, so there's little incentive for state/local gov to encourage lower end housing. Finally, it…

The first part of the solution is to completely eliminate mortgage subsidies and mortgage interest deductions. These do not increase the supply of housing, they only subsidize demand for more expensive houses and increase indebtedness, and increase the flow of capital into non-productive areas of the economy such as mortgage lending and mortgage backed assets. The second part of the solution is to convert all propert…

How would this affect farmland?

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#46

"We would love to build more affordable starter homes, but when high-end homes cost the same to build and are far more profitable, we lose the incentive to build smaller units,” said Isaac Stocks of Azure Northwest Homes, a Seattle-area home builder. That sums it up. Plus, more expensive homes means more property tax revenue, so there's little incentive for state/local gov to encourage lower end housing. Finally, it…

the article has some nice graphs, but doesn't really string it's central tenet together very well: that high construction costs is the #1 reason we don't have starter homes being built.

> "That sums it up."

i'm sure one of a bunch of secondary reasons is that construction cost is high (while also sub-linear relative to sales price), so it's more profitable to build larger homes, as the quote alludes to and you pinpoint here. (regulatory distortions, e.g., mortgage interest deduction and zoning laws, are other secondary issues exacerbating the problem, which i'd suggest have more direct culpability than higher construction cost.)

and the other side of that circular argument (or vicious/virtuous cycle, if you prefer) is that construction cost is high because sales prices are high, and general contractors see an opportunity to take more of the profit pie. combine that with construction labor being tight, and you get a seller's market (for contractors). thus leading developers to seek out more profitable, higher-end homes to overcome the higher construction cost.

but because development costs (e.g., construction cost and cost to acquire) are relatively predictable parts of real estate development, i don't buy the argument that it's the driver of the shift to higher-priced homes. my back-of-the-napkin intuition tells me that develoeprs are simply taking bigger risks, probably because money is cheap and plentiful. so they're going after the big fish and ignoring the small fry, especially since tight housing markets mean that higher prices are more likely to get choked down the throats of buyers who have no better alternatives. that seems much more likely as the "#1 reason why it's so hard to find an affordable home", rather than construction costs.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#47

Why isn't there a tech company trying to disrupt home construction? People speak of Uber being worth so much because of the giant market it's going after and transportation is big being the second largest consumer expenditure at 17% of wallet share. However housing is first at nearly 30% of wallet share and the biggest dent you can make in that figure is lowering the upfront cost which is several years of income for…

There are plenty of companies bringing technology to building.

It just doesn't speed it up all that much. But there are all sorts of new building techniques (new foundation systems, new wall systems, new roofing systems, modular, etc).

Or just things like nail guns.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#48
post #2

No, the #1 reason it's so hard to find an affordable home is that potential buyers can get huge loans at very low rates. Since buyers compete with each other, prices go up. I guarantee that if interest rates were allowed to creep up, and the government stopped guaranteeing loans made by the banks, we'd have cheaper homes almost immediately.

Not really... these days 20% downpayments are the norm. I know several people holding off purchases because they simply don't have downpayment. Higher home prices reduces number of potential customers but right now we have so many of them that reduction doesn't matter and margines are much higher on higher end.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#49
This is also because of mass migration to urban centers in recent times. Every major urban center in US is currently facing massive number of incoming people. When everybody wants to live in same little place, prices are obviously going to shoot up. This should also explain why there are no too many new homes being built - because urban centers have little room to expand. This is current phenomenon in much of the world. Even if you go to 3rd world countries and look at prices in core urban centers, you will see exact same trend as in 1st world countries. This always had been a trend through out history but in recent times curves have crossed the knee and has taken a vertical leap.

Re: Under-building of new homes, high construction cost perpetuate housing shortage

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first part of the solution is to completely eliminate mortgage subsidies and mortgage interest deductions. These do not increase the supply of housing, they only subsidize demand for more expensive houses and increase indebtedness, and increase the flow of capital into non-productive areas of the economy such as mortgage lending and mortgage backed assets. The second part of the solution is to convert all propert…

You're putting the poor in an awfully tight position there. Between no tax deduction for a mortgage and paying the same property tax (what you call land value tax) for their trailer as the mansion next door, they're kind of getting screwed. And what about old people that have owned their own house for decades? If the local economy goes up, increasing the land value tax, they either leave or go bankrupt. And the kicke…

People with trailers are not benefiting from the mortgage interest deduction.

The mortgage interest deduction overwhelmingly benefits households earning over $100,000 per year. Only one in five tax filers take the mortgage interest deduction, the extreme majority are in that $100k+ income bracket.

The substantially increased standard deduction is far more important than the MID for the middle class. Cutting the MID tax break for the top 1/3 of earners, is what will help pay for raising the standard deduction that is a huge benefit to the bottom 2/3 of earners.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/that-beloved-mortgage-deduct...

"Mortgage Interest Deduction Saves Middle Class Taxpayers All Of $51/Month"

"Most of the MID 2012 tax benefits went to people making six figures or more. Households earning over $100,000 in 2012 claimed 77.3 percent of the total MID tax savings, essentially the same as in 2010. And just looking at those making $200,000 or more, we found the very top earners claimed 34.6 percent of the total MID benefits and saved $5,021 on average for 2012."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/12/18/mortgage-in...

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