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Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

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Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#71

No idea if Mr. Thiel is right in this decade, but long term silicon valley has lost its main advantage: silicon. The physical business of building computer parts, especially chips, involves a lot of hard science and deep magic and requires a kind of priesthood steeped in that magic. SV's original success was built on this -- it got rich because it is where the silicon priests lived. But now things have evolved so the…

Silicon Valley has not been about the raw production of silicon chips for over 30 years now.

It's been about software and design of hardware for at least that long.

You're also ignoring the networking advantages (personal, career, and business) that proximity provides. They are not trivial. It's why SV has stuck around post dot-com.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#72
This is already happening. Just look at the drone industry.

DJI, founded in Shenzen, has 87% market share at the most popular price point, and 48% share in the next closest. This is an $8B market and will likely double or triple in the coming years. US companies won the web, but China is making a run for the IoT.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/businesses-want-cheaper-dro...

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#73
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He did say SV, which is probably true. Europe may or may not have the culture you are suggesting, China might have that hunger but no business started there is safe from gov control, Russia has that control without the economic growth, a lot of places are too small. But...there's probably a dozen cities in the US where you could get everything you can in SV (ok, maybe not the monoculture, the crazy VCs, the crazy cos…

I wonder why Chicago isn't more of a major destination for tech companies. The city is highly walkable, has excellent transportation infrastructure, and low cost nice housing is plentiful within an hour commute by train or car. You can get a nice house for less than 200k, apartment rent is around 600 - 1000 a month. In the city, there are a lot of old 3-4 story houses that have been converted to each floor being a re…

Having lived in Chicago, I think it's probably because the city government is corrupt, the Cook county government is corrupt, the suburban county governments are corrupt, all their municipalities are corrupt, and the whole region is going bankrupt from it. People look at Detroit, and think Chicago may be next. They don't want to put their eggs in the same basket as a time bomb, or an egg-sucking weasel. The only thing that has saved it so far is that it is a nice, affordable place to live.

There are billboards on the state border encouraging people to live in Indiana (live in Gary?!) because Indiana isn't going bankrupt.

And it isn't just the obvious form of corruption that everyone can see and hate on, like Blagojevich trying to outright sell a vacant senate seat. It's also the subtle form that pays public employees slightly too much to do not quite enough, and then a pension that gives them even more for doing even less, while their replacement adds even more to the burden. You can't just fire all those people and take away their pensions, because then you can't provide municipal services to your residents, and that is more acutely painful than being slowly bled to death.

Edit:

In slight support of those billboards and some cousin posts, Indianapolis is one of the most affordable cities in the US for buying housing. And the pool for tech talent is largely untapped.

Public transit sucks, though. The city has a huge area and is almost completely flat, so it has taken extreme advantage of its ability to sprawl. Any sudden spike in growth will immediately lead to commuting nightmare traffic, all around the entire city.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#74
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it doesn't have the people and that's all that really matters. SV is self-fulfilling at this point: talented programmers and entrepreneurs flock to the Bay because that's where the talented programmers and entrepreneurs are. Yes, there are talented programmers in every metropolitan area but the Bay has significantly more of them than anywhere else.

Yet SV companies complain the loudest about having a hard time finding talent. In large part, I suspect, because of decreasing amounts of talent that want to put up with the area.

People are having problems finding cheap talent. I lived in both bay area and NYC and in both places I would constantly get lowball offers.

You can get really good engineers in bay area, it just cost more than many are willing to pay.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#75

One of the attributes of The Valley that are not easily reproduced is the forced cross pollination of knowledge and experience among the tech work force. This is forced through layoffs as companies, industries and the economy run through their cycles. This cross pollination leads to several outcomes: 1. the workforce is diverse in experience; 2. employees tend to work harder and longer hours in order to keep their jo…

Why do you think this is unique to the valley? At a first glance every major metro area has this, what's so different?

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#77
post #75

One of the attributes of The Valley that are not easily reproduced is the forced cross pollination of knowledge and experience among the tech work force. This is forced through layoffs as companies, industries and the economy run through their cycles. This cross pollination leads to several outcomes: 1. the workforce is diverse in experience; 2. employees tend to work harder and longer hours in order to keep their jo…

Why do you think this is unique to the valley? At a first glance every major metro area has this, what's so different?

GP said it is not easily reproduced, that’s different from unique

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#78
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The resources you can have are so limited in comparison what you can do if you are on the right project with the right people at for example Google. You will not find a free or open project that will be able to compete with the data, resources, and knowledge you will find there. Besides that it's much faster to learn from someone who knows than finding the right material online. And in the end most world-class projec…

IF your goal is to work for google, facebook, Amazon or Microsoft, then yes, Google is a great place to be. But if your goal is to work for next decades google, Apple, etc, then no, Google is not the place to be. Start working on Bitcoin. Start working on Ethereum. Get to the cutting edge. Everything you do at google right now is about 10 years out of date (and I'm including machine learning and all their "cutting ed…

That's what I'm working on right now. It's just that I can use all this expertise around me to do it. Everything repeats in technology and what you learned can and will be applied to new trends like Ethereum.

I don't recommend anyone to really go to Google to work on the future (besides perhaps if you want to get an edge in AI). It's just that SV has a lot of people that have accumulated experience while building Google, FB, etc and that helps a lot no matter what comes next. You get a lot of experience and people able and willing to take risks which is a nice basis to build something new.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#79
>You just need some talented people...

Well, yea, hence silicon valley. Like begets like - if there's a place where all the best engineers are hanging out, why wouldn't a budding engineer head out there? This is literally why I moved to San Francisco from Houston :P

And then, the best of the best engineers making oodles of money are probably not going to want to live in like, Michigan, growing tech sector or no. Give up good weather, quick access to great vacation spots (mexico, vegas, anythign over the pacific, all the national/state parks...), legalized weed, etc? Nah man.

edit: My language is assertive but I am very open to being challenged on this.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#80

No idea if Mr. Thiel is right in this decade, but long term silicon valley has lost its main advantage: silicon. The physical business of building computer parts, especially chips, involves a lot of hard science and deep magic and requires a kind of priesthood steeped in that magic. SV's original success was built on this -- it got rich because it is where the silicon priests lived. But now things have evolved so the…

It's a shame that this happened, but you can see how it did.

Those chips were built on the fervor of people imagining what we could someday do with them. They could create a connected world, solve and create so many problems on a global scale...it's not super surprising that their successors went on to do those things.

What is surprising, and shameful, is how investors reacted, buying into the mania hook line and sinker. There cannot be a Bell Labs or Fairchild Semi in silicon valley today, because they could not promise 10,000,000% user growth and a massive acquisition in N years.

It seems like the market equivalent of snorting pixie sticks instead of eating a balanced meal, but I'm not the person with billions of dollars to swing around.

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