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After the end of the startup era

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#271

Post by intended »

karmakaze wrote: post #256

Even ignoring "AI, drones, AR/VR, cryptocurrencies, self-driving cars, and IoT" from the article, there are still two big areas still in its infancy: 1. Rich web apps - We know Gmail, Gdocs, Salesforce, etc are/have taken over from desktop apps. I'm continuously discovering more, e.g. Figma. Basically anything that was a single-user desktop app can be made into a realtime collaborative networked one. 2. Mobile busine…

>single-user desktop app can be made into a realtime collaborative networked one

Dear God, Why?

I would rather have MORE single desktop, single license products which I can buy once and then forget about having to upgrade every year, and buy yet another license for. (B2B)

Re: After the end of the startup era

#272

Post by intended »

StillBored wrote: post #233

This sounds suspiciously like the mid 1990's when everyone was bemoaning how the big software companies had basically ended the at home software startup shop. Then the web struck and all these big companies had to get nimble enough to complete with the scrappy little web shops. This basically happened again the mid 2000s with smartphone development. I'm not sure if the machine learning revolution will favor the guy a…

eh, I think what people need to consider in this is the meta-learning pattern.

First wave of disruption - its all equal. Anyone with an idea, coding chops and time can give it a shot

Second wave - leaders of the first wave get caught unaware, some survive, others don't and new leaders are created.

Third wave - There is no third wave. Survivors of rounds 1 and 2 have learned the lesson, and realize that being wrong footed means death. They spend every erg of energy they can spare to identify trends, buy potential competitors and invest in survival.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#273

Post by lioeters »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13
skrebbel wrote: post #4

NYC-based angel investor Jerry Neumann calls this the "deployment age" and has a very nice, and somewhat prescient, write-up about it: http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html

He's just quoting Carlotta Perez. But he doesn't get it quite right, we're in the installation phase for some technologies and the deployment phase for others.

Thanks for mentioning Carlotta Perez. I found a fairly recent (Aug 2017) article by her and cohorts that discusses these "installation" and "deployment" phases. It's a more optimistic article, so I created a separate post:

Are We on the Verge of a New Golden Age? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15531574

Re: After the end of the startup era

#274

Post by lioeters »

samstave wrote: post #131
rpmcmurphy wrote: post #40

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

What absolutely astounds me is how Facebook literally has failed to offer anything of substance to empower people from their massive user base. For example, it should be "three clicks and you're in" to found a virtual company and state "this is the problem we are going to solve, who's with me" - and another person from across the globe should be able to say "heck yeah let's do this" and then Facebook would say "that…

I agree with your sentiment - they have the potential to truly contribute to "making the world a better place", yet seem to be blinded by their narrow focus, or lack of vision..

Re: After the end of the startup era

#275

Post by TeMPOraL »

ruricolist wrote: post #227
adventurer wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

Doesn't everyone on Android use Timely?

I thought everyone used Sleep as Android, but I guess I haven't been following the news.

And that's just me, who tries to stay somewhat up to date with the ecosystem and generally understands tech. How my mother is going to discover which alarm clock app is useful, performant, and doesn't mine bitcoin or exfiltrate her photos to the cloud? I have no idea.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#276

Post by TeMPOraL »

Roritharr wrote: post #217
reitanqild wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urbandroid... Paid. Used it for years. Just works. Integrates with my Hue lights. All kinds of settings including one that refuses to turn off the alarm if I don't use the NFC code in the bathroom (you can use QR codes as well as plain barcodes as well, just hide them away from reach from your bed.

That's the ONE paid Android App that i have been using for 5 years now. The only other paid "App" i use is Action Launcher 2 (3 didn't click for me).

Happy Tasker user here. Well worth the little money I paid for it.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#277

Post by DamonHD »

tertius wrote: post #234
DamonHD wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but I get annoyed at some fat white western guy claiming that all those poor brown people a long way away are the problem. We (my family in the UK) managed to cut tonnes per year off our footprint while raising two kids in the UK; not that hard. Some would much rather blame others rather than even make any effort.

And I agree with you to a great degree (South African here...) The problem is still, it's unlikely to be the solution. If we want the west to change there are two ways to go. 1. Legislation - This is the force option, i.e. if you break the law you go to jail and we'll come and take your property by force. 2. Market - Make technology that makes alternatives easier/more efficient/sexier etc. 2 is hard especially if alt…

0. Howzit! I have family in Cape Town etc.

1. There has to be some of this: no market is totally free, and free-riders are always a problem to some degree.

2. Actually this is exactly the flavour of product/service that I am working on. Have the more efficient solution be better and easier, not a hair shirt. The area we are working on could knock 5% off Europe's entire carbon footprint and save most families hundreds of USD per year also.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#278

Post by TeMPOraL »

api wrote: post #110
rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

Mobile devices are very constrained. The OSes are locked down, the screens are small, high CPU apps are out, and input is slow and cumbersome. After trying a lot of apps I have found that a smart phone has only a few functions: 1. Talking and texting. 2. Taking pictures and video. 3. Maps and directions. 4. Music, movies, ebooks. 5. Brief interactions with services like Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, Los Angeles metro, etc. 6.…

> The main problem with PCs is antiquated, insecure, bloated operating systems. Fix that and I think you'd see even more innovation.

In a way, it's a feature, not a bug. The security of mobile devices is created by the very same thing that limits their usefulness - by OS being vendor-controlled, fully sandboxed and locked down, so that users (via programs acting on their behalf) can't break it. I'm not sure if it is even possible to have a secure system that allows you to do anything interesting on it.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#279

Post by TeMPOraL »

ilamont wrote: post #190
komali2 wrote: post #48

>IoT devices [are] hard to prototype, generally low-margin, expensive to bring to market, and very expensive to scale. Just ask Fitbit. Or Jawbone. Or Juicero. Or HTC. I feel like this is the public's idea of "iot," while I've learned after a year of working for an iot stack provider that the real "internet of things" explosion is found in places nobody looks except the procurement guys - the stadium lights, the refr…

Exactly. Google "Industrial IoT" or "Industrie 4.0" and it's pretty clear that some major changes are happening with IoT, far away from consumer gadgetry like Nest and an IP-enabled light bulb.

Having worked with some companies in the field, I feel "Industry 4.0" is just about the same level of marketing fad as "Sharing Economy". Something useful will eventually appear there, but my impression is that there's lot of papering over crappy tech with sales being done, and people are jockeying for position of being the platform provider, who sucks everyone else into their SaaS offering. In a way, it doesn't look that different from consumer IoT, which is probably why people think calling it IIoT is a good idea (instead of trying to separate themselves away from the accumulated bullshit IoT is).

Not the kind of revolution I fought for.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#280

Post by TeMPOraL »

erikb wrote: post #149
leggomylibro wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it seems like you could replace 'IoT' with 'physical product.' Sounds like the author has been living in the land of hand-waved 9-figure growth estimates for a bit too long.

No you cannot. A brick is also a physical product. But it doesn't communicate. There needs to be software and technology involved, and more than one object needs to talk via a network.

I think the GP's point is that software is not the hard part when you're dealing with physical products, connected or not...
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