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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

arxiv.org

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Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In casino games the "luck" stays the same. One or two percentages (or more) lower than 50%.

You are confusing luck with expectation. Luck is the deviation from expectation. I've seen terrible poker players win a big tournament, or crush cash games for months on end, and quit their jobs because they mistakenly believe they are skilled at poker. Their positive deviation above their actual expectation (their "luck") soon evaporates, and they moan constantly because their results begin to actually match their e…

> You are confusing luck with expectation. Luck is the deviation from expectation.

you're actually thinking of the square root of luck there.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#152

I've been trying my luck at tennis betting ( https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman ) and the only strategy that seems to work consistently is finding injured players and betting against them. Good example of an injured player is a player that limps (Andy Murray at Wimbledon this year). The computers don't watch matches so injured players can be overvalued by the models. Also, any British tennis player tends to be ove…

Maybe you could find a sport where injuries are logged or can be inferred from other data? For instance if a racehorse performs far slower than its typical pace, its odds of losing the subsequent race might be higher.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#153

A couple of suggestions to improve on this method. The authors' regression left an intercept or 'adjustment term' of 3.4% - 5.7%. For a perfect bookmaker, this intercept term would be equal to the overround. The number calculated unfortunately averages that overround between different bookmakers and at different times (overrounds often decrease over time). It might be more effective to adjust for the actual overround…

This comment is an example of the adage that successful sports betters could probably be making money in lots of other ways :)

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#154
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that not being allowed to count means that you should treat odds as if the cards were extracted from an infinite stack with a given statistical distribution of cards. Reshuffling when you only extracted a low number of cards from a finite stack basically approximates the infinite stack, so, the odds should be exactly as expected.

That would be true if the casino always reshuffled after a certain number of cards came out. But a dishonest casino could do the same card counting that players can do, and reshuffle when the count favours the players.

I agree that having a fixed number of cards between reshuffles would be the fairest solution.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that not being allowed to count means that you should treat odds as if the cards were extracted from an infinite stack with a given statistical distribution of cards. Reshuffling when you only extracted a low number of cards from a finite stack basically approximates the infinite stack, so, the odds should be exactly as expected.

Except that the stack isn't infinite. There's a statistical difference between playing off a physical deck and playing off a random number generator, and in a physical deck, the dealing of various cards increases the relative odds that the other cards will come up later in the deck. It's the statistical foundation upon which card counting works. Imagining that the physical deck is a virtual deck does not make it so.…

> It's the statistical foundation upon which card counting works.

Exactly, so, if counting cards if forbidden (I'm not arguing if that is right or not), then having that statistical foundation isn't useful. As a different comment suggested, reshuffling at a fixed point (say, after one third of the cards have been dealt) should solve the problem in practice, also preventing the house to use counting in a meaningful way.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#156
Wanted to post this a few days ago, but life got away on me.

I worked for a monopoly bookmaker and spent a fair amount of time looking at how they work. Our turnover was $2.6bil/yr with $150mil profit in a country with less than 10 million people.

So, Some things to give you guys a bit more context. 1. There are two types of bets. Fixed Odds and Tote. - Tote is a pool based betting system where the odds can change after you have placed your bet. The odds are calculated automatically based on the distribution of bets on the options available. Typically the house will keep 50%+ of the total pool as profit and distribute the remainder among the winning punters. This is a very high profit betting system that the book keepers are trying to keep alive. It's dying off at a pretty rapid rate though. - Fixed Odds Betting (FOB) is where you get payment on the odds you lock in at the time of placing your bet. Most betting now is FOB.

For the sake of responding to various points other respondents have made I will focus only on Fixed Odds; especially as Tote is only used for horse/dog racing.

2. How do the odds work? For us, we had university students who'd manage the books. They had software that showed them how much risk/leverage they had and what the guaranteed profit was. They can set "bet limits" and manually approve (or deny) any bet that was greater than the bet limit. Most of the time they would have open websites from other bookies and copy the odds from theirs as they change. It's quite popular for bookies to just copy each other manually.

For Live/In-Play betting the book keepers will watch the event and manipulate the odds as things occurred. Either using their own knowledge or copying from other gambling sites. Again, the process is completely manual at the back end.

There is a move for organisations around the world to consolidate on their sources of odds (e.g. using a common back-end odds distribution platform); but ultimately there is still a large manual component to changing the odds, especially during live play.

3. How do they make money? On Tote, they take 50%+ of the total pool before creating dividends.

For Fixed Odds, they balance the books. They change the odds to always ensure it's in the houses favour. We always aimed for 10-15% profit on events with fixed odds bets. Home players/athletes will always have much lower odds because of people's tendency to bet with the heart.

They deny bets. The bookie doesn't have to take your bet. For large bets they will often push back an offer to you at a lower rate than advertised to ensure their books stay balanced. For live/in-play bets they'll delay your bet until that odd is no longer available ensuring your bet is not accepted.

They have A LOT of different betting options where only a few will actually win. People tend to bet with their hearts and the number of options are setup to basically ensuring the bookie is profitable.

If you win too much, they shut down your account. They have no obligation to deal with you. Their goal is to make money and they see your gambling as a way you "enhance your enjoyment of the event", not an attempt to make money. So there isn't a large tolerance for people who do make money.

4. How do I (the punter) make money? Surprisingly, you can consistently make money gambling.

Don't bet on Dogs/Horses. Even the top 1% of punters barely break even. They're profitable because of the kick-backs the bookies give them for having high turnover (>$1mil/yr).

Find a sport you know a lot about that supports in-play betting. It's going to be you vs a person. So if you have indepth knowledge of the sport you'll be able to see changes in flow and make winning bets before the bookie notices.

FWIW, I bet on League of Legends. During the LOL Worlds I can make 2500% with >90% win rate. Now, I'm only winning a few $k total so nothing significant.

That's all I can think of at the moment. Happy to answer any questions you have.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#157

I've been trying my luck at tennis betting ( https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman ) and the only strategy that seems to work consistently is finding injured players and betting against them. Good example of an injured player is a player that limps (Andy Murray at Wimbledon this year). The computers don't watch matches so injured players can be overvalued by the models. Also, any British tennis player tends to be ove…

Maybe you could find a sport where injuries are logged or can be inferred from other data? For instance if a racehorse performs far slower than its typical pace, its odds of losing the subsequent race might be higher.

The whole point is that computers can't use injuries as a data point. This strategy won't work in any sport that can have the injury factor calculated by a computer.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#158
post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. I was actually backed off from the first place I went to after I learned how to count cards while I was losing . If the pit boss or dealers know how to count themselves and identify you as a counter, they want no part of it. In most cases, they'll either "flat bet" you (tell you that your initial bet is your maximum), or they'll tell you that you cannot play bl…

That's why it's done in teams.
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