After the end of the startup era • Hacker News Board

Re: After the end of the startup era

#221

Post by samstave » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 10:24 PM UTC

tertius wrote: post #205

samstave wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, your logic is sound, and the math isn't working out recently though. I learned to cook from my depression era grandmother. Home cooking is healthy, but not always cheap. My grandmother used to tell me "this meal is $1.37 per serving" As we made things, I learned to cook in le curset pots from a woman who used to travel the world with Martin yan and Julia child... (we were state department family and had a lot of…

I think we will enjoy a cup of coffee together.

Deal. I'm in Oakland during the day and Walnut Creek during the nights. Let me know what works.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#222

Post by tim333 » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 10:29 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #168

From the article: "We’re already seeing this. Consider Y Combinator, by all accounts the gold standard of startup accelerators, famously harder to get into than Harvard. Then consider its alumni. Five years ago, in 2012, its three poster children were clearly poised to dominate their markets and become huge companies: AirBnB, Dropbox, and Stripe. And so it came to pass." "Fast forward to today, and Y Combinator’s thr…

In terms of investment round valuations there's Instacart $3.4bn, Coinbase $1.6bn and Gusto $1bn.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#223

Post by rdl » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 10:33 PM UTC

This doesn't feel particularly true in the enterprise space. There still is the constraint on IPO exits due to (unclear what exactly -- that's another topic), but I don't see companies like HPE, IBM, Dell, etc. getting more innovative, nimble, or effective.

It might just be that in the consumer space there are some exceptionally good companies, where that hasn't really happened in enterprise, or it could be a function of the technologies and markets. Amazon (AWS) and Google to some extent compete in enterprise as well, but they're not as dominant relatively.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#224

Post by sosborn » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 10:36 PM UTC

gdfhhgddhjj wrote: post #143

sosborn wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meat at twice the price would probably solve the problem. While true, it basically sends the message of "If you have enough money you are free to do what you please to the detriment of the planet."

Well, this is true today at least. What are you surprised at?

What makes you think I am suprised?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#225

Post by thechao » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 10:49 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #208

KGIII wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to wonder if some of that growth was related to Moore's Law? Namely, the number of transistors grew and the use of them grew linearly with them in a sort of 'if you build it, they will come' fashion? Now, as I understand it, growth has slowed outside of the labs and Moore's Law appears to no longer be valid. So, there will likely still be growth, but the growth will be more rare, difficult, and expensive? Like…

CMOS scaling is close to dead and that’s been a very special tech and tech enabler. It’s not the only way to continue ramping performance and function. See GPUs for example. But it’s hard to replace that kind of tech.

Because the pitch on wires hasn’t decreased nearly as fast as effective feature size, there’s a strong bottleneck effect that limits single-socket devices in terms of their usable compute power. A good rule of thumb since ~2012, and for at least the next 5 years would be ~12 tera-single-channel ops/sec.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#226

Post by whiskyant » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 11:14 PM UTC

hkmurakami wrote: post #192

Animats wrote: post #168

From the article: "We’re already seeing this. Consider Y Combinator, by all accounts the gold standard of startup accelerators, famously harder to get into than Harvard. Then consider its alumni. Five years ago, in 2012, its three poster children were clearly poised to dominate their markets and become huge companies: AirBnB, Dropbox, and Stripe. And so it came to pass." "Fast forward to today, and Y Combinator’s thr…

The journalist reveals his or her ignorance by not considering Gusto or Flexport to be well positioned, imo.

Several companies with $1B valuations were missed:

  Reddit
  Zenefits
  Gusto
  Docker
  Flexport
  Coinbase
  Twitch.tv
  Quora
  Door Dash
  Machine Zone
  Mixpanel

Re: After the end of the startup era

#227

Post by ruricolist » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 11:15 PM UTC

adventurer wrote: post #111

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

Doesn't everyone on Android use Timely?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#228

Post by tyteen4a03 » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 11:21 PM UTC

adventurer wrote: post #111

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

What's wrong with Google's offering?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#229

Post by hkmurakami » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 11:37 PM UTC

guaka wrote: post #214

hkmurakami wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The journalist reveals his or her ignorance by not considering Gusto or Flexport to be well positioned, imo.

Plus the article could do with some basic fact checking. "The web boom of 1997-2006 brought us Amazon, Facebook, Google, Salesforce, Airbnb" Wikipedia AirBnB page: "Founded August 2008; 9 years ago"

Also iirc Amazon predates 1997. 1997 is its IPO date.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#230

Post by contingencies » Sun, Oct 22, 2017, 11:49 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #48

>IoT devices [are] hard to prototype, generally low-margin, expensive to bring to market, and very expensive to scale. Just ask Fitbit. Or Jawbone. Or Juicero. Or HTC. I feel like this is the public's idea of "iot," while I've learned after a year of working for an iot stack provider that the real "internet of things" explosion is found in places nobody looks except the procurement guys - the stadium lights, the refr…

IoT devices [are] hard to prototype

Here in Shenzhen, I would say no. They are cheap as chips. I have multiple friends doing consumer IoT devices (lots of BLE) with single-dimensional backgrounds (often software) who have been able to iterate through multiple prototypes and produce concepts within months. The chief problems for IoT products IMHO are marketing and replicability (low security for initial investment).

The fact that hardware is expensive to tackle in SV just means SV is badly positioned in this sector, not that it's inherently difficult or expensive. BTW, we just had the Hacker Trip to China (by Noisebridge founder Mitch Altman) roll through town here.