141–150 of 158 posts
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Contact info is in profile but andr3w321 at gmail
People say their contact details are in their profile, but I never see contact details in any profile I view. Am I missing something?
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My reasoning is that the 'invisible hand' of many less informed bettors leads to market efficiency in aggregate, particularly in highly liquid markets. Greater liquidity in parimutuel markets makes for odds that are less of a moving target, but it leaves fewer mispriced prospects to capitalise on. So not only do you have to beat a fairly efficient market, but you have to beat it on average by a margin equal to the pa…
I can see what you are saying. I would say however that most $$ players in the stock market have analytic teams, etc. If instead, a substantial portion of the players in the stock market placed their bets on randomly chosen stocks, the aggregate would be much less efficient and that could be exploited. I've sat and watched people betting on horses for a long time. The majority choose based on the name or color of the…
[1] http://www.calfairs.net/files/publications/14.pdf -- check slide 5
[2] https://www.scribd.com/document/84887435/CA-Authority-of-Rac... -- An Example for Northern CA breeds on page 10
"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…
That's because you get greedy, if you walk away every time with a 500-1000 dollar, they wont notice.
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My reasoning is that the 'invisible hand' of many less informed bettors leads to market efficiency in aggregate, particularly in highly liquid markets. Greater liquidity in parimutuel markets makes for odds that are less of a moving target, but it leaves fewer mispriced prospects to capitalise on. So not only do you have to beat a fairly efficient market, but you have to beat it on average by a margin equal to the pa…
Do you think there's an opportunity to run a "free" service with no take, but selling services to large/automated clients and/or selling data?
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Do you think there's an opportunity to run a "free" service with no take, but selling services to large/automated clients and/or selling data?
There are very high regulatory costs if you're going to run a book/tote and pay out people's bets. But yes, your data could be worth more than your bookmaking margins. If it's worth buying, it's worth using yourself. I like the idea of a private prediction market, something between kaggle and that investment fund that uses homomorphic encryption, the name escapes me. 'Invest' on betting markets, return a share of pro…
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Site Vs API are identical. There may be some extra latency (order of milliseconds) on the site due to render time etc but they both use the same underlying data source.
interesting. have you used both? just curious how you know
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I can see what you are saying. I would say however that most $$ players in the stock market have analytic teams, etc. If instead, a substantial portion of the players in the stock market placed their bets on randomly chosen stocks, the aggregate would be much less efficient and that could be exploited. I've sat and watched people betting on horses for a long time. The majority choose based on the name or color of the…
It's closer to 22.5% in total. [1] But it also depends on specifics like race, location, type of bet [2]. Looks like a conventional win, place, or show bet has the least taken out of it [1] http://www.calfairs.net/files/publications/14.pdf -- check slide 5 [2] https://www.scribd.com/document/84887435/CA-Authority-of-Rac... -- An Example for Northern CA breeds on page 10
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There are very high regulatory costs if you're going to run a book/tote and pay out people's bets. But yes, your data could be worth more than your bookmaking margins. If it's worth buying, it's worth using yourself. I like the idea of a private prediction market, something between kaggle and that investment fund that uses homomorphic encryption, the name escapes me. 'Invest' on betting markets, return a share of pro…
Sports betting and/or prediction markets are such an obvious application of cryptocurrencies/smart contracts that I'm kind of shocked it isn't already a huge part of the darknet (or maybe it is and I just don't know about it). It doesn't even have to be good, as long as it's anonymous, decentralized, and eliminates counter-party risk. Something like that could be adopted at a glacial pace and still be unstoppable in…