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After the end of the startup era

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#71
post #54

I try to be patient with Techcrunch, but seriously, phrases like this make me see red: > The market capitalization of Bitcoin vastly exceeds that of any Bitcoin-based startup. The same is true for Ethereum. The market cap of the US dollar exceeds that of any financial institution. What's the fucking point?

The point is that the success of bitcoin does not mean a huge windfall to bitcoin based startups. Reread the paragraph.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#72
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree the future is built on small businesses. But to have the most impact on the environment we could all just stop eating so much meat.

Travelling less is much more important. Skip that vacation to Europe or Asia if you really want to have an impact on your footprint. Just one such trip dominates the impact of eating meat.

"... four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO2e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less)."

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541/m...

Re: After the end of the startup era

#73

I agree with this premise. I knew it was over about 2 years ago when I noticed that about half of new startups were built to sell to other startups, or to serve the existing startup market in someway. That’s a sign of saturation. Another paradigm shift in media (like recorded sound, recorded video, radio, tv, computing, web, and mobile) is what’s needed to produce another startup boom. It all comes down to media—�—th…

VR/AR fits that bill. It's just that no one has nailed the form factor and hardware yet so that it can reach mass adoption.

Or is it a chicken and egg problem? VR interests me, but I don't feel there is a killer app yet to make the plunge worth it.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#74
post #44

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

I agree the future is built on small businesses. But to have the most impact on the environment we could all just stop eating so much meat.

I prefer figuring out how to incorporate the externalities instead of banning/quitting things. Meat at twice the price would probably solve the problem.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#75
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the argument that 1995 through 2015 was a cycle completely different from whatever the next one will be, is not without merit. I mean, it is easy to forget, but many, many things had to come together at one time in order for this to pop off like it did: * high speed internet * widespread consumer demand for high speed internet and services * multi-core, low-power hardware that gave us smartphones and cheapish "…

It is likely entirely without merit. Many thing had to come together from 1975 to 1995 to enable the things you're referencing. The list you made is not impressive versus the past, it's normal. What happened from 1995 to 2015 that was more important than the Internet, transistor, microprocessor, router, DRAM or the GUI? Good luck resolving that debate. Many thing had to to come together from 1955 to 1975 to.... I don…

Yes, I am old enough to remember, and I think you are reading more into my post than was there.

I am not claiming 1995-2015 was unique in the fundamental factors (we are all riding the exponential curve here), simply that the confluence of advances is unique to that time period, and gives you a unique distribution of companies/organizations/industries/etc. that is very different from other time periods.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#76
post #53

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

Why do you not think the world needs SMBs over larger corporations with more resources? Are there any economic study or more academic writings on this topic. I'd be curious.

If you take solar arrays as an example, someone needs to do the build out. That someone is likely to be a local or regional company that hires local workers. Planning and construction accounts for a significant fraction of project costs as materials costs have plummeted, so this is money that ends up being recirculated in the local economy. Of course there will be large companies in the mix, but there won't be a network effect that results in one company owning the whole industry like Facebook, which is a good thing.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#77
I call bullshit on this. The problem is centralization, but that hasn't prevented startups. It just caused them to be bought by large companies like Faceook (YouTube, WhatsApp and Instagram are some examples)

I write about this extensively here: https://qbix.com/blog/index.php/2017/08/centralization-and-o...

Decentralization of trust, power, energy generation, and much more is on the way. This will lead to a lot more startup activity.

https://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_on_institutions_versus...

Re: After the end of the startup era

#78
post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

Apps have never been that exciting to me, especially in the "on a smartphone" incarnation. Partly that's because I'm a h/w and s/w guy, but also because it's clear from a number of angles that only so much real wealth/happiness/etc can be had from just shuffling bits around without reference to the physical world. (And I say that as someone who worked in derivatives finance for the best part of 20 years!)

Re: After the end of the startup era

#79
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree the future is built on small businesses. But to have the most impact on the environment we could all just stop eating so much meat.

I prefer figuring out how to incorporate the externalities instead of banning/quitting things. Meat at twice the price would probably solve the problem.

Yeah good luck achieving that using pure capitalism. Unless you liberate all the farm animals by buying them out. You need regulations to prevent factory farming!

Re: After the end of the startup era

#80
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Travelling less is much more important. Skip that vacation to Europe or Asia if you really want to have an impact on your footprint. Just one such trip dominates the impact of eating meat.

"... four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic fligh…

BTW, compared to many of my peers I have done all four.

http://www.earth.org.uk/

I'm definitely not strictly veggie: I just wolfed down a nearly free burger when offered! And though I haven't flown for years, I may need to visit China once or more over the next couple of years.

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