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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

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Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#71

Post by repsilat »

maaaats wrote: post #31

They claim the market is inefficient. I worked for a company that to some extend fixed that. Can't remember all the details (I worked on a different part), but something like this: Most big betting companies were customers. They all continuously sent their updated odds to us, and we would broadcast to the other companies. They would react to the change based on certain rules and send new updated odds back to us. This…

Haha, this exactly describes arbitrage. My old company was "sent ... updated odds" (well, we scraped their sites often...) and "we would broadcast to the other companies" by betting on those other companies' sites when the lines crossed, and "This would then converge" because one of the bookies in the arb would move the odds after we hit them (or after we hit them a second or third time...)

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#72

Post by joosters »

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #56
seanalltogether wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused, since betfair is an exchange aren't they just taking a cut of the action? Why would they add a heavy tax onto profits which would just drive heavy bettors away?

That's the scam. They get you hooked thinking they are only taking 5% or whatever it was... and from pretty much everybody who bets there, they do only take 5%. But all of the "smart money" gets taxed at 60% when they inevitably take all of the losers money who only paid 5%. So in essence, they are doing exactly as you suggested... "they're just taking a cut of the action." But it's a 65% cut!

It’s not quite as bad as that - see my other comment; the calculation of the charge doesn’t mean you pay 5%+60% commission on winning bets. That kind of fee would be impossible to sustain, no-one has that kind of profit margin on their betting. The commission % charge and the PC % charge don’t work in the same way.

On the flip side, a great many people pay far higher than 60% of their net profits to Betfair... most will have paid over 100%...

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#73

Post by joosters »

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #57
phillc73 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betfair merged with Paddy Power, not Ladbrokes. They probably stopped offering their service in Canada due to unclear licensing and operating regulations for their Exchange product. It has happened in a number of other jurisdictions too. What you need is a good friend or relative in the UK or Ireland, and a VPN. However there are now other exchange betting options, with at least some degree of liquidity - Betdaq, Sma…

>However there are now other exchange betting options, with at least some degree of liquidity - Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook for example. That's good to know. But do they impose the same sort of "60% winners tax" that betfair does? Or anything close to that? Because if so, I wouldn't even bother signing up. I don't need to gamble that badly!

Unfortunately the other betting exchanges have far far less liquidity than Betfair, and much of the bets on offer are from bots that are simply mirroring the odds on Betfair (with their own margin added on)

Basically, all the money goes on Betfair because that’s where all the money is. It’s a vicious circle, great for BF and very difficult for any competitors to break in to the market.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#74

Post by dmurray »

watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

> The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is.

This part is not really true. Bookies will very often have an unbalanced book and will be happy to keep taking action on the side that increases their exposure, if the price is right.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#75

Post by iopq »

watoc wrote: post #53
iopq wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because people who bet sharply on lines reduce the long term profitability of the bookies. While they reduce the variance, they take directly from the profits. Defeats the point of being a bookie when better bettors imbalance the book in one direction and win.

If they imbalance the book yes. But in this case the authors got the statistical edge because the bookie is trying to balance the book. What difference does it make if the $10k the bookie needs at 4/1 to balance the book comes from professional better Bob or from long term loser Joe? As soon as the book gets imbalanced again they would have to change the lines again.

Because Bob bets when it is profitable - when the line is wrong. Taken as aggregate, Joes bet on both outcomes, the unprofitable ones and profitable ones.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#76

Post by iopq »

DennisP wrote: post #61
iopq wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's only if you vary your bet size. That's a definite tell.

How do you profit from card counting without varying your bet size?

Have someone else sit at your table when the count is good and bet high

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#77

Post by joosters »

utnick wrote: post #10

There has to be more to this story. I would like to hear the bookmakers side of this. Perhaps the researchers were scripting or triggered some other kind of security tripwire. Winning $900 split across several different bookmakers is absolutely nothing in the sports betting industry. William Hill, one of the companies that the researchers claim restricted them is a multi billion dollar company. They aren't sweating s…

Bookies will limit you no matter what your stakes are. You can get your account closed by placing £10 bets, and even if those bets don’t win!

Bookmakers are on the lookout for exactly the kind of betting behaviour described in the paper: people only betting on the top price, and shopping around for the best odds. If they see that you are only grabbing mis-priced offers, you are unlikely to be a profitable customer to them.

The bet size doesn’t really come into it. Just look at it from their point of view; why keep a customer who is costing you money, however little it is.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#78

Post by DSMan195276 »

darepublic wrote: post #62
DennisP wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you profit from card counting without varying your bet size?

I guess you could always count from the sidelines and bet only in advantage spots. Not very practical I suppose but card counting in general seems pretty implausible these days

One strategy I know of is to have multiple people. One person sits at the table and always bets low, the other always bets high but only sits down if the person at the table signals to them that the odds are good (They can be off doing other stuff while the low-better is doing the counting, so they're not just standing around waiting).

You're still right though, the odds aren't that great and once they get a hint you're doing something weird you'll get thrown out.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#79

Post by joosters »

utnick wrote: post #15
mason55 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that it’s the manner by which they were winning. Thirty $50 bets per week over five months is over 500 bets. That’s not the long run but winning at an 8.5% ROI over that many bets is probably enough for the house to realize they’re somehow a winning player even if the stakes aren’t huge.

Sportsbooks in general don't mind winning players though, especially big ones. They make money off the vig and move odds to get equal money on each side of the bet so that they'll make money either way.

The books rarely balance up though, especially for markets with more than two outcomes. Football/soccer has win/lose/draw (and you can never get enough money on the draw, as hardly any amateur is going be watching a match cheering on a draw!)

Horse racing is even worse for the bookies, with multiple runners, their books will rarely balance, and the standard outcome is a loss if the favourite wins. Any outsider winning a race is a ‘turn up for the books’. (n.b. this is for UK style horse racing betting, where the bookies offer fixed odds. Pari-mutuel or pool betting doesn’t have the same problem)

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#80

Post by johnvonneumann »

downandout wrote: post #14
mikkom wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, rigged is exactly the right word. From the paper: > Our strategy proved profitable in a 10-year historical simulation using closing odds, a 6-month historical simulation using minute to minute odds, > and a 5-month period during which we staked real money with the bookmakers . > > Our results demonstrate that the football betting market is inefficient ‒ bookmakers can be consistently beaten across thousands of ga…

The fact that they limit the accounts of successful bettors doesn't mean that it is "rigged". It simply means that they reserve the right to do business with whom they choose.

Limiting those who stand a chance of pulling off the type of big wins they advertise heavily on television is rigging the market. It's manipulation, pure and simple. What they're selling is a bullshit dream that if you ever come close to they will bar you. This type of activity is the definition of predatory. It's straight up rigging.
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