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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

arxiv.org

51–60 of 158 posts

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#51
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sportsbooks in general don't mind winning players though, especially big ones. They make money off the vig and move odds to get equal money on each side of the bet so that they'll make money either way.

They hate “sharps”, winners who win through skill exploiting lines, they love those who win by chance. Sharps will continue to bleed them, the lucky fish often become whales whose luck fades over time.

In casino games the "luck" stays the same. One or two percentages (or more) lower than 50%.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#52
post #48
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes -- customers don't like it because it's too hard to win. Said another way, customers will choose to place bets with market makers, instead of some paramutual operation.

Why is it harder to win?

In paramutuel betting the prices are not fixed, so you cannot leverage differences between the odds on offer and your estimate of the prospect's chances. The final odds you receive are equal to the total stakes placed on that prospect divided by (sum of all stakes less the operator's take). You can't formulate an optimal staking plan with unknown odds, and you're forced to compete on win rates rather than price ineffeciencies.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#53
post #45
post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

Because people who bet sharply on lines reduce the long term profitability of the bookies. While they reduce the variance, they take directly from the profits. Defeats the point of being a bookie when better bettors imbalance the book in one direction and win.

If they imbalance the book yes. But in this case the authors got the statistical edge because the bookie is trying to balance the book. What difference does it make if the $10k the bookie needs at 4/1 to balance the book comes from professional better Bob or from long term loser Joe? As soon as the book gets imbalanced again they would have to change the lines again.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#54
post #34
post #29

I always thought bookies just kept moving the lines until they were making money at the snap of the ball. Their initial line isn't as important as adjusting the line so that there is equal money on both sides of the line and therefore the bookie is guaranteed money due to the small fee they build into the bets. Their profits don't depend on accurately predicting the game's score, just moving the line strategically as…

Easier said than done. Suppose your book is balanced, and you have $25,000 on each side. Then a new bet comes in, size $250,000, on one side of your book -- what to do? Or, more simply, when you set your initial line, what do you do when a known sharp immediately wants action on one side?

You buy the other side with another bookie. The risk is if the other bookies don't accept the full amount you want to hedge.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They hate “sharps”, winners who win through skill exploiting lines, they love those who win by chance. Sharps will continue to bleed them, the lucky fish often become whales whose luck fades over time.

In casino games the "luck" stays the same. One or two percentages (or more) lower than 50%.

You are confusing luck with expectation. Luck is the deviation from expectation. I've seen terrible poker players win a big tournament, or crush cash games for months on end, and quit their jobs because they mistakenly believe they are skilled at poker. Their positive deviation above their actual expectation (their "luck") soon evaporates, and they moan constantly because their results begin to actually match their expectation, or even worse, they get "unlucky" and their losses are greater even worse than their expectation.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to use the betfair platform until it they blocked themselves from being viewed in Canada for some strange reason right after they were purchased by ladbrokes I believe it was. Anyways, after playing with them for a few years, I was horrified to learn about their 60% tax on consistent winners that they have dubbed a "premium charge". Found some sort of edge to exploit and reap profits? Betfair doesn't even care…

I'm confused, since betfair is an exchange aren't they just taking a cut of the action? Why would they add a heavy tax onto profits which would just drive heavy bettors away?

That's the scam.

They get you hooked thinking they are only taking 5% or whatever it was... and from pretty much everybody who bets there, they do only take 5%.

But all of the "smart money" gets taxed at 60% when they inevitably take all of the losers money who only paid 5%.

So in essence, they are doing exactly as you suggested... "they're just taking a cut of the action." But it's a 65% cut!

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to use the betfair platform until it they blocked themselves from being viewed in Canada for some strange reason right after they were purchased by ladbrokes I believe it was. Anyways, after playing with them for a few years, I was horrified to learn about their 60% tax on consistent winners that they have dubbed a "premium charge". Found some sort of edge to exploit and reap profits? Betfair doesn't even care…

Betfair merged with Paddy Power, not Ladbrokes. They probably stopped offering their service in Canada due to unclear licensing and operating regulations for their Exchange product. It has happened in a number of other jurisdictions too. What you need is a good friend or relative in the UK or Ireland, and a VPN. However there are now other exchange betting options, with at least some degree of liquidity - Betdaq, Sma…

>However there are now other exchange betting options, with at least some degree of liquidity - Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook for example.

That's good to know.

But do they impose the same sort of "60% winners tax" that betfair does? Or anything close to that?

Because if so, I wouldn't even bother signing up.

I don't need to gamble that badly!

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. I was actually backed off from the first place I went to after I learned how to count cards while I was losing . If the pit boss or dealers know how to count themselves and identify you as a counter, they want no part of it. In most cases, they'll either "flat bet" you (tell you that your initial bet is your maximum), or they'll tell you that you cannot play bl…

Probably more polite than when organized crime was involved in Las Vegas casinos. There's card-counting software called Casino Verites (IIRC).

the situation is certainly more polite these days, but is organized crime really not involved anymore?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#59
post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

[deleted]

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#60
post #49
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably the bookmakers are actually OK with the betting activity that is described in the paper, but they have limits on successful accounts as a safety mechanism to prevent themselves from losing too much money in the event that somebody comes up with an unforeseen method of winning lots of money.

Makes sense. But then they are depriving themselves of liquidity provided by these professional gamblers. They might have to increase the odds even more so that an average joe will bet on an unpopular team where as the professional bettor would have taken it at a lower price recognizing the statistical edge. The aim of the bookie is to have a guaranteed profit on each and every game. Whereas the professional gambler…

What you are saying makes total sense and seems reasonable but the reality is the books don't need the sharp action and don't really care about having a perfectly even balance. They will make more money just letting squares fire away at 1.9 or -110 odds and print money. Someone above said it perfectly, having the balanced action via sharp players will reduce variance but will eat into profits, and the books have the capital required to ride out any variance (entire seasons where squares win at a higher than expected rate for example).

edit: the books (at least the ones that open with respected lines, not the ones that copy the big books' lines) DO want sharp action when they are trying to set the right line. They will have a private group of handicappers that get to take shots at the new lines before they are publicly listed for smaller bet sizes, then they open the lines publicly for very small bet sizes. By the time the full bet limits are allowed and the square punter is picking a game 30 minutes before it begins, the books have no more fears.

on the topic of this paper, the arb'ing or picking off "off" lines is kind of a crowded space and opportunities don't last for long. I wouldn't get into it with high expectations of profit.

edit 2: source: i've been heavily involved in the industry on the betting / modeling side for years in the past.

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