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Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

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Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#101

Post by gehwartzen »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #96
Chathamization wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But that’s the thing, if our galaxy had lots of 20-21st century Earth level civilizations, we would be able to detect them with our existing SETI programmes. But we couldn't. In general, SETI couldn't even detect such a civilization even if it was in the star system closest to earth: > If an extraterrestrial civilization has a SETI project similar to our own, could they detect signals from Earth? > In general, no.…

> But we couldn't. In general, SETI couldn't even detect such a civilization even if it was in the star system closest to earth. Your quote relies on us detecting re-runs of "I Love Lzcwwdrrr", but our telescopes can reliably do spectrographic analysis of faraway stars and planets these days. We'd likely be able to detect things like unnaturally high levels of hydrocarbons in otherwise oxygen-full atmospheres, and ot…

>Your quote relies on us detecting re-runs of "I Love Lzcwwdrrr", but our telescopes can reliably do spectrographic analysis of faraway stars and planets these days. We'd likely be able to detect things like unnaturally high levels of hydrocarbons in otherwise oxygen-full atmospheres, and other industrial by-products.

We don't know what "unnatural" levels of CO2 on other planets are.

> If Alpha Centauri had a planet with an industrial civilization, we might be able to spot city lights.

We do not even remotely have that capability.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#103

Post by marcosdumay »

mannykannot wrote: post #76
amelius wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that some thermodynamics law says that if you burn an amount of energy, you inevitably emit IR radiation. More energy means more radiation.

Yes, but every star emits IR.

Not many things emit a huge amount of IR and nearly nothing more energetic than it. Anything like that would be easily detected with our current tech.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#104

Post by marcosdumay »

Chathamization wrote: post #64
pklausler wrote: post #30

We couldn’t detect a remote civilization at a 21st century equivalent stage of development. But at 22nd century level, they’d be able to launch a Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probe... and it would take just one such event to lead to the permanent saturation of the Galaxy by its descendants. So where are they? The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization t…

> The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization to approach a BvN launch. That's carrying a lot of assumptions. That there's not a probe lying somewhere in the solar system watching us, that aliens haven't found a better way to observe us than probes, that they even care about observing us in the first place. Take the last one for example - 400 billion stars in our galaxy alone.…

The thing about the self replicating probes is that they are sufficient for taking over the entire galaxy.

That doesn't mean that they are optimal. The Fermi paradox does not care about optimal, just possible.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#105

Post by marcosdumay »

GTP wrote: post #44

This is an interesting idea but from what I know carrying computation in the space just because it's really cold might not be as good as it seems: space it's almost empty (not really a vacuum but with very few matter). This means that in space you can't really loose heat by contact but only by emitting infrared radiations. This means that although space is really cold an object put in space will take some time to coo…

If you do enough computation, everything starts to behave like a spatial object. Every large enough computer is technically "on space".

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#106

Post by kiliantics »

ioulian wrote: post #65
nerfhammer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they might realize the universe is just inherently a dangerous place and design their own little universe to go inhabit. Peacefully exiting the universe.

What I've always thought about is if all life eventually struggles for power and destroys itself? Imaging what would happen if the whole world just worked together! Is this something that is in our DNA, to be on top of everyone? 1% controlling the whole world, limiting their potential... Can we someday put aside our differences and work towards the same goal? Life on earth (humans and animals) don't really work toget…

Google Murray Bookchin

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#107

Post by jbattle »

wongarsu wrote: post #75
tremon wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a nice thought experiment. Our capability of harnessing energy from renewable sources (but not electrical energy) covers 3,000 years already: sailing ships and windmills. By the time magnetism and later electricity were discovered, we already had wind-powered propulsion, milling, and water drainage. What made them impractical for industrial uses (the first applications for coal power were steam-powered textile…

Apart from hydro power as a very steady energy source, we also have thousands of years of history of using another arbitrarily controllable renewable resource: wood. We even processed wood to turn it into coal. And in the absence of trees we could have been burning other plants. Granted, the amount of wood you can extract within a decade from an area without turning it into a desert or grassland is limited, but in th…

I suspect too that our usage patterns for wood are "subsidized" by the availability of coal. There was just an article here the other day that talked about how deforestation in Ethiopia (for use as fuel) has had dramatic ecological impacts up and down the Nile.

IIRC Coal caught on in England in part because deforestation had gotten so bad that they needed another source of fuel to run industrial engines

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#108

Post by pklausler »

sametmax wrote: post #46
pklausler wrote: post #30

We couldn’t detect a remote civilization at a 21st century equivalent stage of development. But at 22nd century level, they’d be able to launch a Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probe... and it would take just one such event to lead to the permanent saturation of the Galaxy by its descendants. So where are they? The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization t…

As others pointed out, you assume that other civilizations have similar technologies, motives, potential, political situation (or politics at all) and even material structure or needs. It's all speculation. We have satellites and yet know very little of what's happening in other countries. We mistake their needs and intents all the time. We are regularly surprised of what they are capable or incapable to do. And yet…

It takes just one BvN launch in galactic history to fill the galaxy up with self-replicating probes for the rest of its history. Doing this doesn't require much more technological capability than we have now. Motivation, politics, and ethics do not matter, just capabilities -- over such a huge volume of space, across billions of years, anything that's remotely possible will take place. The galaxy is very large and very old -- yet it is not overrun by frantically reproducing robots.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#109

Post by mannykannot »

marcosdumay wrote: post #103
mannykannot wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but every star emits IR.

Not many things emit a huge amount of IR and nearly nothing more energetic than it. Anything like that would be easily detected with our current tech.

Good point - even protostars have distinctive spectra, I think.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#110

Post by Terr_ »

ioulian wrote: post #65
nerfhammer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they might realize the universe is just inherently a dangerous place and design their own little universe to go inhabit. Peacefully exiting the universe.

What I've always thought about is if all life eventually struggles for power and destroys itself? Imaging what would happen if the whole world just worked together! Is this something that is in our DNA, to be on top of everyone? 1% controlling the whole world, limiting their potential... Can we someday put aside our differences and work towards the same goal? Life on earth (humans and animals) don't really work toget…

I'm sure a civilization can exist without destroying the rest of the universe -- but it will rely on the rest of the universe pushing back a bit.
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