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Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

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31–40 of 124 posts

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#31

The Fermi Paradox is the contradiction between the very reasonable surmise that there must be other forms of technologically advanced life out there somewhere in our great galaxy and the complete lack of any evidence for it. But not quite. This paradox assumes that a more technologically advanced society would naturally expand it's energy usage and output to the point that it could be detected by us. That is, expand…

Or they might realize the universe is just inherently a dangerous place and design their own little universe to go inhabit. Peacefully exiting the universe.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#32

My humble impression is that each and every philosophical hypotesis we make is somewhat based on human paradygms, structures, and super-structures. Why can’t we accept that we populated this world for the equivalent of a cosmic blink, and we are therefore unequipped to even grasp the existence of other life forms? I am a fan of Bostrom’s conjecture about the simulation, though. 1/3 is a damn high probability. At the…

I'm reminded of the old problem of the flight of bumble bees. Someone did some calculations on bees, modeling their flight using the same properties of aerodynamics as fixed wing aircraft, and they came to the conclusion that bees couldn't fly. Of course the obvious answer was that bees simply don't fly the way that fixed wing aircraft do and we merely did not understand how they flew at the time (we do know). But im…

We're making the very best guesses humanly possible (literally), but we are still just guessing.

Unless (or until) we meet actual aliens, that is all we can do.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#33
Something to consider is that the universe is 13-odd billion years old, and from our perspective, the edge of the observable universe is about 46 billion light years away.

At interstellar distances, it is very difficult to detect something unless it is emitting something: electromagnetic energy or gravitational waves (and those are only possible to detect when there are super-massive bodies doing something extremely energetic, like two black holes or neutron stars merging).

Earth's man-made electromagnetic radius is about 110 light years. We're pretty much invisible to any other life out there.

But what about aliens that have been around for a long time? Wouldn't we see some evidence of them?

Well, the other problem is that space itself is expanding. The observable universe is 91 billion light years in diameter, but as space expands, the farthest galaxies are receding from us at ever-increasing speeds, eventually becoming invisible to us as well.

The unimaginably vast spatial and temporal scale of the universe means that countless alien civilizations may have come and gone, along with any sign of their history if their light waves are outside of our observable universe. Or their signals arrived and ceased long before humans even existed, let alone had the technological capabilities required to receive and interpret such signals (arguably, only since the advent of digital computers).

Factor in the 100 billion (or maybe 10 times more[1]) galaxies that we can see, and the 160 billion stars (solar systems, possibly) per galaxy, and the probability that we will detect an alien civilization (or vice-versa), where we are and when we are, in a universe that is mostly empty space, before we ourselves die out, seems rather small.

[1]: https://www.spacetelescope.org/news/heic1620/

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#34

We couldn’t detect a remote civilization at a 21st century equivalent stage of development. But at 22nd century level, they’d be able to launch a Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probe... and it would take just one such event to lead to the permanent saturation of the Galaxy by its descendants. So where are they? The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization t…

>But at 22nd century level, they’d be able to launch a Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probe...

That's assuming that we'll get to that level by 22nd century (or ever).

I'm not so sure inter-stellar space travel and even space probing at that scale will come to be. Or even a colony as close as Mars -- for the reasons outlined pretty well here: http://www.ecosophia.net/terror-deep-time/

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The paradox itself makes no such assumptions or speculation. It simply says that everything we know indicates that life and presumably technologically advanced life should be everywhere, yet we see it nowhere. There's an absolutely phenomenal article on the Fermi Paradox at WaitButWhy [1]. Your objections are mostly just scratching the surface of the wide array of possible explanations for it. [1] - https://waitbutwh…

You are simply mistaken. The article you link to filled with speculation concerning "type II" and "type III" civilizations. If you assume earth-level civilizations as advanced, "where is everyone?" has a simple answer - "I don't know because we couldn't see them anyway". If you assume some other civilization as advanced, you are speculating . That's what speculation means.

I would upvote you so much more if I could. So many issues I see in reasonings are a direct cause of lack of imagination. What we know is limited. Speculating is interesting. But it's critical to identify it as speculation.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The notion in the article is great fodder for a novel, but I think this perspective is sound. You've said almost as much, but I think there's a good argument to be made that societies which undergo an industrial revolution either collapse the ecology that supports them, or survive it by maturing and expending energy on QoL for the whole biosphere. In either case the window of time for making a cosmic racket is fairly…

The argument I've heard most is that a civilization only has a short time where it's blasting broadcasts into space willy-nilly, before improving their tech and making it more efficient, thus dramatically lowering its potential to be discovered by its stray broadcasts.

I wonder if all habitable planets with simple life would have the conditions necessary to create oil and coal. Love them or hate them, they still power most of our civilization. Imagine if we did not have a gas/coal readily available? We refined nuclear as a weapon first. The need for a nuclear bomb might not arise in a power constrained civilization and thus go much long before being discovered (if ever)

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The paradox itself makes no such assumptions or speculation. It simply says that everything we know indicates that life and presumably technologically advanced life should be everywhere, yet we see it nowhere. There's an absolutely phenomenal article on the Fermi Paradox at WaitButWhy [1]. Your objections are mostly just scratching the surface of the wide array of possible explanations for it. [1] - https://waitbutwh…

You are simply mistaken. The article you link to filled with speculation concerning "type II" and "type III" civilizations. If you assume earth-level civilizations as advanced, "where is everyone?" has a simple answer - "I don't know because we couldn't see them anyway". If you assume some other civilization as advanced, you are speculating . That's what speculation means.

[deleted]

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#38
post #29

There's a serious argument to be made that the famous "WOW" signal can't be anything but an ET civilisation signal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal

There's also a serious argument that it has a mundane explanation ...

https://phys.org/news/2017-06-wow-mystery-space.html

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The paradox itself makes no such assumptions or speculation. It simply says that everything we know indicates that life and presumably technologically advanced life should be everywhere, yet we see it nowhere. There's an absolutely phenomenal article on the Fermi Paradox at WaitButWhy [1]. Your objections are mostly just scratching the surface of the wide array of possible explanations for it. [1] - https://waitbutwh…

You are simply mistaken. The article you link to filled with speculation concerning "type II" and "type III" civilizations. If you assume earth-level civilizations as advanced, "where is everyone?" has a simple answer - "I don't know because we couldn't see them anyway". If you assume some other civilization as advanced, you are speculating . That's what speculation means.

You're also speculating. Your original post is quite literally a list of 'what if' scenarios.

Re: Computing and the Fermi Paradox: A New Idea Emerges – The Aliens Are All Asleep

#40

We couldn’t detect a remote civilization at a 21st century equivalent stage of development. But at 22nd century level, they’d be able to launch a Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probe... and it would take just one such event to lead to the permanent saturation of the Galaxy by its descendants. So where are they? The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization t…

> The only really satisfactory conclusion is that we’re the first or only civilization to approach a BvN launch.

Not the only one. There may well be an armada of these probes on their way, but so far away in one of the billions of galaxies that the metric expansion of space means they will never reach us even at near-lightspeed - or may reach us long after we've become extinct. Or may miss our pale blue dot entirely. It's a freaking big universe.

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