221–230 of 324 posts
When things will start getting interesting is when we figure out how to get move simulation and search into the network itself, rather than programming that on the outside. As far as I know, no-one has even the faintest idea of how to do that. We have an existence proof that this should be possible. The networks are great at perception and snap-prediction. Anything a human can do in 200ms is fair game. And with cleve…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It also presumes that one can simulate the world at low cost. In AlphaGo Zero it takes 0.4 s for 1.600 node extensions, but in this case the cost of the world is negligible. Anyway, assuming you need that many node extensions to get decent quality updates, that puts a rather a tight limit on the cost of simulating the world.
DM has already done a bunch of work on 'deep models' of environments to plan over. Use them and you have 'model-predictive control' and planning, and this tree extension to policy gradients would work as well (probably). It could be pretty interesting to see what would happen if you tried that sort of hybrid on ALE.
I'm reminded of Eliezer Yudkowski's article "There is no fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence." Is this smoke? https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ Yes, this is not an AGI. But the hockey-stick takeoff from defeats some players, to defeats an undefeated world-champion, to defeats the version of itself that beat the world champion 100% of the time is nuts . If this happens in other domains, like f…
You don't even need to produce an AGI for this kind of intelligence to be frightening. At some point, a military is going to develop autonomous weapons that are vastly superior to human beings on the battle field, with no risk of losing human lives, and there is going to be a blitzkrieg sort of situation as the relative power of nations shifts dramatically. If we have two such countries we could have massive drone an…
When things will start getting interesting is when we figure out how to get move simulation and search into the network itself, rather than programming that on the outside. As far as I know, no-one has even the faintest idea of how to do that. We have an existence proof that this should be possible. The networks are great at perception and snap-prediction. Anything a human can do in 200ms is fair game. And with cleve…
What do you mean by move simulation?
Anyone happen to have a link (or can PM one to me) to a copy that isn't behind a paywall?
I'm reminded of Eliezer Yudkowski's article "There is no fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence." Is this smoke? https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ Yes, this is not an AGI. But the hockey-stick takeoff from defeats some players, to defeats an undefeated world-champion, to defeats the version of itself that beat the world champion 100% of the time is nuts . If this happens in other domains, like f…
Wait for Alpha StarCraft for some real panic. So far RL based method has limited success outside of simple games(Not to say Go is simple, but rather the presentation and control parts of the format).
For example, after this result it seems if you can reduce your problem domain onto Go (or a similarly structured game) you now have a way to create a superhuman solver. It may just be easier to do that then try to even figure out how to design and tune a new network.
I could imagine waking up in 10 years being confused at why all software efforts in the AI space are focused on just figuring out clever ways to map real problems onto a hodgepodge of seemingly random "toy" domains like Go and Chess and Starcraft. Hell, maybe the Starcraft bot will immortalize Starcraft in a way the game never would have been able to if it becomes a good reduction target for a lot of domains.
It kind of reminds me of how SVMs were "abused" by twisting non-linear domains into them via kernel methods, or by proving the NP-equivalence of a problem by reducing it onto 3-SAT, or how ImageNet's weights are being re-purposed for other image oriented prediction tasks.
I'm wondering if once one of these algorithms comes along that has been perfected if it is going to "burn in" the domain it was built for as the target of problem reductions, similar to 8086 assembly or the qwerty keyboard living on today despite them being ancient relics. For example, after this result it seems if you can reduce your problem domain onto Go (or a similarly structured game) you now have a way to creat…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not 100% sure I agree. It values probability of victory because that's it's goal. For humans, aiming only for probability of victory might not be as good, because we're much worse at estimating probabilities. So aiming for maintaining a large margin at all times is conceivably the best proxy that we can use in practice .
Agreed. I know I'm winning by 4 points but I have no idea about my probability of winning. However if I'm winning I know that I should play low risk moves and refrain from starting complicated fights. That increases the probability of winning. IMHO the exact value is out of reach for human beings.
That way, each player could know, at all times, (one major factor that goes into) their probability of winning. They'd still have to mentally adjust it for the likelihood of them and their opponent making an error, and how that can be controlled by making intimidating moves, etc. But it could lead to much tighter control on the abstract flow of the game.
It'd almost be like the computer was the general, issuing strategy, picking battles; and the human player the tactician, fighting those battles.
I'm reminded of Eliezer Yudkowski's article "There is no fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence." Is this smoke? https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ Yes, this is not an AGI. But the hockey-stick takeoff from defeats some players, to defeats an undefeated world-champion, to defeats the version of itself that beat the world champion 100% of the time is nuts . If this happens in other domains, like f…
"We don't know how AGI will arise; we don't know when; we don't know why; we don't know anything at all about it and we won't know anything about it until it's too late to do anything anyway; We must act now!!"
The question is- if we don't know anything about this unknowable threat, how can we protect ourselves against it? In fact, since we're starting from 0 information, anything we do has equal chances of backfiring and bringing forth AGI as it has of actually preventing it. Yudkowski is calling for random action, without direction and without reason.
Besides, if Yudkowski is none the wiser about AGI than anyone else, then how is he so sure that AGI _will_ happen, as he insists it will?
Yudkowski is fumbling around in the dark like everyone else in AI. Except he (and a few others) has decided that it's a good strategy, under the circumstances, to raise a hell of a racket. "It's dark!" he yells. "Beware of the darkness!". Yeah OK, friend. It's dark- we can all tell. Why don't you pipe down and let us find the damn light?