Just own the damn robots • Hacker News Board

Re: Just own the damn robots

#201

Post by wiz21c » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 9:58 AM UTC

Aeolun wrote: post #195

matthewbauer wrote: post #79

Interesting article but I think the premise that workers are buying tech stocks because they fear automation is incorrect. Gallup found 13% of Americans thought that their jobs would soon be replaced by automation[1]. In fact you usually find more people worried about immigration than automation[2]. Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now. [1]: http://news.gallup.com/po…

I don't think there's a big difference in being replaced by a 'robot' from overseas or a robot that was built in the US. Either way it means your value to society is gone.

>> Either way it means your value to society is gone.

Your value to society is much more than that. You have value for friends, relatives. You also bring some idea that may be used by others. You may fix or build things that will be of value to someone else. Etc. This is very important.

The other argument is that if you reduce yourself to work, then you'll give credits to the argument that work is everything and that, for example, unemployment is to be ashamed of.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#202

Post by bamboozled » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:09 AM UTC

hectorlorenzo wrote: post #196

Waterluvian wrote: post #98

Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…

Slightly off-topic, but that is the main reason I do not want to have kids: I am not sure I would like the kind of person I would become. Sometimes I am already paralysed by fear when thoughts about my future take a dark turn (relatively often), but at the end of the day it is my well-being (and my wife's) we are talking about, and we are economically independent adults. We could take a hit or two. Throwing little de…

This seems to be a pretty common attitude amongst a lot of people in their late twenties and early thirties I socialise with (who should probably be well into parenthood).

Common question seems to be, "Why bring a child into a world facing climate change, potential nuclear war and a lack of prosperity or opportunities for personal growth".

Adopting is probably a better option ;)

Re: Just own the damn robots

#203

Post by TuringTest » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:17 AM UTC

goatlover wrote: post #166

adrianN wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Machines didn't take all the jobs in agriculture either, but they changed the society from >90% of the population working the fields to <10% what we have today. Imagine what would happen if a similar development would affect all kinds of work. Even if structural unemployment is "just" 40% our current social system would be wholly inadequate.

Yes, but that's a really bad comparison because the net result ended up being a huge increase in new jobs that were created, thanks to the machines. We have tons more people and jobs today.

That's because machines needed lots of manual operators to take care of them while working.

Now that we have computers, it's not at all clear that this will be true anymore; machines need to be designed, but that requires much less people working on them.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#204

Post by stoolpigeon » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:28 AM UTC

aerodeck wrote: post #140

matthewbauer wrote: post #79

Interesting article but I think the premise that workers are buying tech stocks because they fear automation is incorrect. Gallup found 13% of Americans thought that their jobs would soon be replaced by automation[1]. In fact you usually find more people worried about immigration than automation[2]. Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now. [1]: http://news.gallup.com/po…

The article mixes its message a bit between automation/disruption/capital. One couldn't really say that Uber is in the business of automation. The capital/labor distinction is more productive, but since it is derived from marxism no one actually uses it. I'm starting to get the impression that this genre of "technology gone bad" article is starting to be a safe surrogate for talking about class. The muddling of terms…

Actually here on this site is where I've read many times that automation is Uber's destination and that when they get there they will truly have attained their goal.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#205

Post by jacobush » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:29 AM UTC

hectorlorenzo wrote: post #196

Waterluvian wrote: post #98

Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…

Slightly off-topic, but that is the main reason I do not want to have kids: I am not sure I would like the kind of person I would become. Sometimes I am already paralysed by fear when thoughts about my future take a dark turn (relatively often), but at the end of the day it is my well-being (and my wife's) we are talking about, and we are economically independent adults. We could take a hit or two. Throwing little de…

OTOH is you get kids you will be so busy you can't think about these things as often. I tend to think we humans have an agony ratio we tend to maximise, pretty independently of circumstances. :)

With kids you will worry as much, but over different things. And also the old things, when you get time over to mull over those...

Re: Just own the damn robots

#206

Post by lin_lin » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:46 AM UTC

Waterluvian wrote: post #98

Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…

Wow that's some jump. It's the opposite for me in a way, I'm renting and it's killing me to see all that "wasted". A mortgage would cost far less than what rent is, and by paying it off I see that as a type of "investment" i.e. at least I'll four walls around me and my family.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#207

Post by Iv » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:48 AM UTC

aorloff wrote: post #144

Iv wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it will also create new jobs managing the automation No, that's bullshit. New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise. This month I visited a warehouse with a team tasked to automate it. If we succeed, phase I should put ~10 people out of job and we don't expect to have to do more than occasional monthly interventions (and that's assuming that we have a hi…

> At this point, there will be a genuine question: why do we need to work to benefit from the goods of these industries? For the same reason you can't look over to your neighbor's driveway and say, since he doesn't use his truck all day while he's at work, why can't I drive it ? The people who built those automated industries expended capital, and likely, borrowed against future revenue to do so. What you are free to…

> But nationalizing the factories has, historically, generally led to nasty (the opposite of what your conscious advocates would call desirable) outcomes. And you are saying that a 100% automated factory should be effectively nationalized.

Most of the companies that were nationalized in 1945 in France are now world class companies. Renault, EDF, France Telecom (now Orange), SNCF, AFP...

And yes, I say that automated factories profits should be nationalized. What is the alternative? People owning means of production that are impossible to compete against as they are so established and tuned to have marginal costs of production of zero.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#208

Post by goatlover » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:48 AM UTC

TuringTest wrote: post #203

goatlover wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but that's a really bad comparison because the net result ended up being a huge increase in new jobs that were created, thanks to the machines. We have tons more people and jobs today.

That's because machines needed lots of manual operators to take care of them while working. Now that we have computers, it's not at all clear that this will be true anymore; machines need to be designed, but that requires much less people working on them.

We've had computers for 70 years now. In order for the machines to seriously cut into available jobs this time around, the software and robots have to be able to do tasks across a wide swath of activities humans are currently doing.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#209

Post by Iv » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:49 AM UTC

tome wrote: post #197

Iv wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it will also create new jobs managing the automation No, that's bullshit. New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise. This month I visited a warehouse with a team tasked to automate it. If we succeed, phase I should put ~10 people out of job and we don't expect to have to do more than occasional monthly interventions (and that's assuming that we have a hi…

> New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise The incentive would be to produce more for the same cost. One human plus one robot produces more than one human alone for the same cost.

What if you don't need more?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#210

Post by TuringTest » Wed, Oct 18, 2017, 10:54 AM UTC

goatlover wrote: post #208

TuringTest wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because machines needed lots of manual operators to take care of them while working. Now that we have computers, it's not at all clear that this will be true anymore; machines need to be designed, but that requires much less people working on them.

We've had computers for 70 years now. In order for the machines to seriously cut into available jobs this time around, the software and robots have to be able to do tasks across a wide swath of activities humans are currently doing.

You haven't been watching the news recently?