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Just own the damn robots

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101–110 of 356 posts

Re: Just own the damn robots

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was some article here on HN a while back that framed this much better for me. It's NOT that Robots are going to take all the jobs, it's that automation and productivity advances are going to reduce the people necessary by a drastic degree. There's lots of stats like Ikea factories making 17x the bookcases they did in 1985 but with the same number of staff. But even in our technical and development niche, look at s…

> It's NOT that Robots are going to take all the jobs, it's that automation and productivity advances are going to reduce the people necessary by a drastic degree. That's been happening for hundreds of years. It's actually going more slowly now - productivity growth is some of the slowest that we've seen over the past 70 years[1]. It seems more likely that flashy tech (like articles about self driving cars and drone…

It's been happening for thousands of years. Agriculture was the first instance of automation (Farming) replacing labor (hunting). It was also the birth of massive inequality.

From another thread:

Today I have already consumed more sugar than most of my distant ancestors would see in a year. The device i hold in my pocket reminds me that it is time to perform the action, and so i will perform the action. I sit down about 10 hours a day, and I have never once hunted for an animal I would eat, nor retried food from nature to consume, aside from a few raspberries on the hill in my parents' back yard when I was a child.

The contours of my life are dictated largely by a curious system called 'capitalism', a distributed computational mechanism whereby larger numbers of agents act with only one goal: to maximize their own utilities. I think capitalism is a mostly benevolent AI attempting to limit the oppressive conditions of our reality's scarcity, and to allow billions of us to live on a planet that can only support so many hunter-gatherers per square meter. Many suspect it is not benevolent. They may easily be right.

The singularity is already upon us; it's unevenly distributed. It started with the sedentary shift. Agricultural societies dropped the egalitarian nature of their ancestors, they had lower average health, and they had a tiny elite cast of nobles presiding over a much larger population of what were essentially slaves. As hunter-gatherer population increased, fighting was more frequent. An army of slaves beats a smaller contingent of well-fed free men. This terrible knowledge was the apple in the garden. What we call our written history is essentially the singularity playing itself out, as knowledge accumulates, depends, reflects itself, and expands.

Our lives are already controlled by this embodied, accumulated knowledge. Capitalism, rule by the head, our tools are knowledge condensed into matter, and we are controlled by them, living lives as far from our natural environments as cows in a farm or chickens in tiny cages, towering over the streets of hong kong.

I don't think it's destroying us, any more than we seek to destroy chickens or cows. Well, sometimes we do. I had a veggie burger for lunch today though.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#102
15 years ago all the software jobs I worked at were retiring clerical workers with software (oh you have 15 people doing spreadsheets ? We can automate that and you won't need them for the same report generation).

So this has been going on a lot longer than the article supposes. Yes its true that the sophistication of the automation, and the breadth of its reach (with robots / gig economy) is higher than before, so it will affect more jobs, but it will also create new jobs managing the automation (the same way people found jobs using Excel to manage those spreadsheets from previously more manual ways to do reporting).

In other words, this is the normal destructive (and positive) cycle of capitalism. It is always painful for people who adapt slowly, and provides opportunities for those willing and able to jump into the development and use of new automation tools.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#103

15 years ago all the software jobs I worked at were retiring clerical workers with software (oh you have 15 people doing spreadsheets ? We can automate that and you won't need them for the same report generation). So this has been going on a lot longer than the article supposes. Yes its true that the sophistication of the automation, and the breadth of its reach (with robots / gig economy) is higher than before, so i…

The point isn't that it's been going on for a long time but the speed with which it is happening today.

Furthermore, I don't think most people understand how little the tech sector is. Even in the Bay Area, it's only around 15-20% who actually work in tech.

Most people aren't able to just relearn and adopt.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#104
post #6
post #2

Whoa. No solutions, at the end, but what a story. As someone in a situation similar to the 45 year old he mentions, I worry about being displaced. Not every day, but every month or so I wonder. What a fascinating thesis. I wonder what happens when the 'replacement fear' buy collides with the 'boomer retirement' sell?

Pretty sure the proposed solution is to buy stocks of the U.S. technology giants: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

An index fund is really the best option.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#105

15 years ago all the software jobs I worked at were retiring clerical workers with software (oh you have 15 people doing spreadsheets ? We can automate that and you won't need them for the same report generation). So this has been going on a lot longer than the article supposes. Yes its true that the sophistication of the automation, and the breadth of its reach (with robots / gig economy) is higher than before, so i…

The point isn't that it's been going on for a long time but the speed with which it is happening today. Furthermore, I don't think most people understand how little the tech sector is. Even in the Bay Area, it's only around 15-20% who actually work in tech. Most people aren't able to just relearn and adopt.

I think this is where social safety nets (or the lack of them) come into play. The market can be short sighted when it comes to training and typically focus on younger generations where they do (large orgs sponsoring university courses etc).

A good adult education scheme in conjunction with social welfare to allow people to make use of it makes a world of difference when it comes to re-tooling older people once jobs are automated. Not to find jobs at google but at the legion of smaller traditional enterprises that now have technology components due to automation.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#106

15 years ago all the software jobs I worked at were retiring clerical workers with software (oh you have 15 people doing spreadsheets ? We can automate that and you won't need them for the same report generation). So this has been going on a lot longer than the article supposes. Yes its true that the sophistication of the automation, and the breadth of its reach (with robots / gig economy) is higher than before, so i…

> but it will also create new jobs managing the automation

No, that's bullshit. New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise. This month I visited a warehouse with a team tasked to automate it. If we succeed, phase I should put ~10 people out of job and we don't expect to have to do more than occasional monthly interventions (and that's assuming that we have a high failure rate).

The thing that is different in this cycle is that we may very well manage to 100% automate some industries. At this point, there will be a genuine question: why do we need to work to benefit from the goods of these industries?

At the core of the pact that makes our society is the idea of specialization: we have varied needs that we ask specialists to fill (farmers, car makers, fridge makers, power plant workers, etc...) while we, too, fill one small niche. The less people work we need to fulfill our daily needs, the less work we should be asked daily.

But this transition will only happen if we are conscious that it is possible and desirable.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest market cap companies in a given decade, overwhelmingly tend to be under-performers in the following decade. It's a trend that has repeated decade after decade. Many of these types of companies - AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, FB - have pulled a massive share of their future returns forward (which is what happened to Microsoft, stagnating its stock for ~15 years). In 2007 the largest companies were: Exxon, GE, Microso…

Netflix has a ~200 PE ratio, there is no means for it to ever justify its existing valuation (400 million global subscribers? no chance), much less a far higher one. Their present business model has never proven the ability to produce good margins, content has perpetually sapped their earnings potential and is likely to continue to do so. Facebook and Google will stagnate and grow into their valuations. Google partic…

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau” - Yale economist Irving Fisher, 1929

Re: Just own the damn robots

#108

I just don't buy it. I understand I'm in a minority, so let me indulge myself and explain, for a moment, why I think AI / Robots are nothing to worry about. My claim is: Robots will not replace humans in all jobs. Further, it's more than because of Human preference, I think that Robots will lack cognitive abilities that we have. My expectation is that in each area where they are deficient then they may well become a…

>5) Intuitive leaps. e.g. Rubics cube.

I'm not sure what a Rubics cube has to do with intuition. But solving a Rubics cube is so firmly within the realm of doable that no one is going to call it AI anymore.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#109
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point isn't that it's been going on for a long time but the speed with which it is happening today. Furthermore, I don't think most people understand how little the tech sector is. Even in the Bay Area, it's only around 15-20% who actually work in tech. Most people aren't able to just relearn and adopt.

I think this is where social safety nets (or the lack of them) come into play. The market can be short sighted when it comes to training and typically focus on younger generations where they do (large orgs sponsoring university courses etc). A good adult education scheme in conjunction with social welfare to allow people to make use of it makes a world of difference when it comes to re-tooling older people once jobs…

I don't disagree but how are you going to pay for social welfare if no one is making money? So what do you tax? do you do something else? These are the questions that are really relevant to figure out IMO.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans aren't so complicated that an AI won't be able to model those things you've listed.

Alternate view: humans are so fucking simple they'll pay extra for a machine-made coffee if it comes with a human attendant. Humans might be so bad at figuring out whether Alice can work with Bob or whether we should bomb Iran that a magic 8 ball could do a better job, never mind the anthropomorphised superintelligent computers which exist only in the imaginations of futurists past and present. But humanity is going…

Get the robot! We got a sentient one here, folks!
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