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Just own the damn robots

thereformedbroker.com

71–80 of 356 posts

Re: Just own the damn robots

#71
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors are willing to accept much lower long-term returns for safe haven assets. If you're going to "just own the damn robots" at any price, you're essentially paying for this sort of insurance.

but Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are software, not hardware, so you're not owning the robots.

fwiw Amazon owns and invests in warehouse automation robots.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#72
post #8

"We’re in an age where we’re being told AI is about to start writing its own software." The most pregnant sentence in the entire piece.

All the problems in every serious piece of software I've ever worked on stem from the customer (be it external or in-house) not knowing what they want, the person in charge of capturing that doing a pretty bad job of it anyway, and the chain from there to the person writing the software taking that failure and making it worse. AI writing software will just get me another flavour of the wrong software. AI working out…

You don't think good old fashioned bugs are a problem?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#73
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure the proposed solution is to buy stocks of the U.S. technology giants: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

The largest market cap companies in a given decade, overwhelmingly tend to be under-performers in the following decade. It's a trend that has repeated decade after decade. Many of these types of companies - AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, FB - have pulled a massive share of their future returns forward (which is what happened to Microsoft, stagnating its stock for ~15 years). In 2007 the largest companies were: Exxon, GE, Microso…

So uh how does shorting the top 10 companies and buying the rest of the market perform over the last couple decades?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#74

Why not just seize the means of production? Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons. This has historically been justified using two assertions: that people don't value what they don't own, and that nobody does anything except for profit. Both are highly questionable, yet when counterexamples are offered they are generally dismissed as 'the exception that proves the rule' or some equal…

In the capitalist interpretation, "seize the means of production" translates to "start your own business and out-compete your competitors". Or put another way: just own the damn robots. "Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons" If only somehow I could capitalize on everyone who believed this nonsense. I would sell them shirts, but for them to receive them would be ownership of private…

Private property and personal property are not the same thing.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best outcome is the "Culture" endpoint: a post-need society. 10% of people are called upon to work, and the rest thrive on basic income and become artists and inventors, philosophers and musicians and actors. The worst outcome, on the other hand, is rather more dystopian. A society with a very large percentage of young, unemployed people with no particular path to success is not a stable society. I suppose it mat…

Also, do the 10% believe that they are a static group deserving of persistent participation in the "working class" - or is this a competitive and fluid group in which the children of the 90% may move into/out of as their skills/ability apply? Which is to ask - is it worth maintaining a 90% at all or should we 'solve that problem'?

When even a small percentage of the rich oppose an extermination program for the bottom 90%, it turns a plan for tidy mass murder into chaotic war with dangerous risks to even the richest. That's why I don't put much weight on the "rich exterminate the unneeded poor" scenario, as outlined in Peter Frase's "B" scenario from Four Futures.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#76

Why not just seize the means of production? Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons. This has historically been justified using two assertions: that people don't value what they don't own, and that nobody does anything except for profit. Both are highly questionable, yet when counterexamples are offered they are generally dismissed as 'the exception that proves the rule' or some equal…

Duplicate the means of production. If we really end up in a world where robots make the products and robots make the robots, then the means of production are information products that can be copied like software. (And there will be open source robots too, but copying without permission is the fallback position if commercial robots are too patent-encumbered to reimplement by legal means.) I wouldn't steal a car... but…

This is an interesting line of thought. The spread of capitalism was fueled by the new technology of the Industrial Revolution. Perhaps the next mode of production will be fueled by this 'Internet/Computer/Robot/AI Revolution'. Maybe the important change is this "trivially scalable output irrespective of capital" property, but no one really seems to know what this will lead to.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#77

Why not just seize the means of production? Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons. This has historically been justified using two assertions: that people don't value what they don't own, and that nobody does anything except for profit. Both are highly questionable, yet when counterexamples are offered they are generally dismissed as 'the exception that proves the rule' or some equal…

In the capitalist interpretation, "seize the means of production" translates to "start your own business and out-compete your competitors". Or put another way: just own the damn robots. "Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons" If only somehow I could capitalize on everyone who believed this nonsense. I would sell them shirts, but for them to receive them would be ownership of private…

I'm referring to a specific legal practice when I mention the Commons, sorry for not making that clearer. A similar method is proposed today to manage fisheries, with established actors being granted fungible fishing rights; well-intentioned as this proposal may be, it's philosophically problematic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure

Re: Just own the damn robots

#78
post #62

I came to see if people were talking about the robotics and automation ETF cited in the article and if it would be a good idea to buy at this point, but seems that everyone is having philosophical conversation instead of a investing conversation :-p

From a clueless investor here, it seems like NVidia would be a good play if you anticipate widespread growth in machine learning.

GPUs are more useful than CPUs for ML, but eventually someone's going to want to cut nVidia out of that process: https://cloud.google.com/blog/big-data/2017/05/an-in-depth-l...

nVidia is still a solid choice as VR has raised the visual fidelity demands for games and experiences, and even a 1080Ti can't render VR games at 90+FPS at max graphics. That's still a lot of demand nVidia has to meet.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#79
Interesting article but I think the premise that workers are buying tech stocks because they fear automation is incorrect. Gallup found 13% of Americans thought that their jobs would soon be replaced by automation[1]. In fact you usually find more people worried about immigration than automation[2]. Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now.

[1]: http://news.gallup.com/poll/216116/few-workers-worry-tech-ma...

[2]: http://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx

Re: Just own the damn robots

#80

Why not just seize the means of production? Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons. This has historically been justified using two assertions: that people don't value what they don't own, and that nobody does anything except for profit. Both are highly questionable, yet when counterexamples are offered they are generally dismissed as 'the exception that proves the rule' or some equal…

Duplicate the means of production. If we really end up in a world where robots make the products and robots make the robots, then the means of production are information products that can be copied like software. (And there will be open source robots too, but copying without permission is the fallback position if commercial robots are too patent-encumbered to reimplement by legal means.) I wouldn't steal a car... but…

especially if it was AI that designed it.

https://www.ted.com/talks/maurice_conti_the_incredible_inven...

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