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Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

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Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#31

Post by steveeq1 »

icebraining wrote: post #17
boomboomsubban wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Mind you, those stats are "white men", much less "white men that happen to be policemen" These stats are on murders as tracked by law enforcement agencies, most of the killing of black people by police officers wouldn't be included.

http://killedbypolice.net/ tracks those; I don't think they have statistics per race, but even if all the people killed were black, I don't think it would change much the graphic. More than 1000 people killed by cops per year is still absolutely horrifying, of course.

And how many of those killings were justified? Probably the great bulk of it, as the police have an inherently dangerous profession.

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#32

Post by [deleted] »

steveeq1 wrote: post #31
icebraining wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://killedbypolice.net/ tracks those; I don't think they have statistics per race, but even if all the people killed were black, I don't think it would change much the graphic. More than 1000 people killed by cops per year is still absolutely horrifying, of course.

And how many of those killings were justified? Probably the great bulk of it, as the police have an inherently dangerous profession.

[deleted]

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#33

Post by icebraining »

steveeq1 wrote: post #31
icebraining wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://killedbypolice.net/ tracks those; I don't think they have statistics per race, but even if all the people killed were black, I don't think it would change much the graphic. More than 1000 people killed by cops per year is still absolutely horrifying, of course.

And how many of those killings were justified? Probably the great bulk of it, as the police have an inherently dangerous profession.

So it is. Yet, even adjusting for population size, the US police kills 40 to 100 times the number of people killed by the German police.

Is the US 40 to 100 times more dangerous than Germany? You tell me, I've never been there.

(Germany is just an example. The UK, Canada, Austria, and probably many other countries in the EU all kill less than 10 people per year).

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#35

Post by AnimalMuppet »

icebraining wrote: post #33
steveeq1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many of those killings were justified? Probably the great bulk of it, as the police have an inherently dangerous profession.

So it is. Yet, even adjusting for population size, the US police kills 40 to 100 times the number of people killed by the German police. Is the US 40 to 100 times more dangerous than Germany? You tell me, I've never been there. (Germany is just an example. The UK, Canada, Austria, and probably many other countries in the EU all kill less than 10 people per year).

I would say you are much less likely to be shot (by anybody) in Germany. Far fewer people carry guns. (Making up numbers for illustration purposes only: In the US, you may be twice as likely to have a physical confrontation with fists, and 50 times as likely to be shot.)

This changes things for the police. If a cop in Germany confronts a belligerent citizen, said citizen may take a punch at the cop. The cop is probably better trained, and also probably in better shape. Still, s/he could lose. If so, s/he may get teased by other cops back the station.

In the US, the cop has to worry about the belligerent citizen taking a shot at the cop. If the cop loses that encounter, the other cops at the station will speak very respectfully to the cop's widow(er). That's a completely different proposition. It means that the US cops are on a hyper hair-trigger alert that German cops don't have to be.

Disclaimer: I don't work in law enforcement. It's been many years since I was in Germany. This is my perception only.

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#36

Post by Rzor »

HiroshiSan wrote: post #30

Can someone explain this line to me: "As I had early discovered in school wherein I had excelled without labor, guided by theory, while many others, without mastery of theory, failed despite monstrous effort." Is he talking about conceptual understanding vs rote memorization? What theory is he talking about?

Perhaps not rote memorization, but figuring things out by tinkering without a mental model or conceptual understanding as you say.

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#37

Post by cyberattacknow »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
Animats wrote: post #8

That's a fun read. The section on incentives is useful. But he idolizes Patterson , the National Cash Register guy? That guy was the Travis Kalanick of the late 19th century. "Politics is the art of marshalling hatreds". Munger was way ahead of his time there. "First-conclusion bias". Huge problem with cops. "It is not greed that drives the world, but envy" - cited to Warren Buffett. Hmm. He probably ran into too man…

Munger's an adherent of a particular value system common among businessmen from the mid-19th -> late-20th century. In this value system, 1) the primary purpose of economic activity is efficiency, producing more with less 2) the purpose of employees is to serve as instruments for their employers to accomplish their business goals and 3) anything that gets in the way of this is by definition evil, and it is not immoral…

It's not so much a difference in values as a conflict in interests. Everyone wants to maximize happiness for themselves, which often include maximizing financial status. Thus, those "values" are really just a way to justify their personal interests. Of course, there are people, especially in the middle and lower class, who are foolish enough to place "fairness" and "what's right" over their own personal interests.

Re: Charlie Munger – The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

#38

Post by ScottBurson »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
Animats wrote: post #8

That's a fun read. The section on incentives is useful. But he idolizes Patterson , the National Cash Register guy? That guy was the Travis Kalanick of the late 19th century. "Politics is the art of marshalling hatreds". Munger was way ahead of his time there. "First-conclusion bias". Huge problem with cops. "It is not greed that drives the world, but envy" - cited to Warren Buffett. Hmm. He probably ran into too man…

Munger's an adherent of a particular value system common among businessmen from the mid-19th -> late-20th century. In this value system, 1) the primary purpose of economic activity is efficiency, producing more with less 2) the purpose of employees is to serve as instruments for their employers to accomplish their business goals and 3) anything that gets in the way of this is by definition evil, and it is not immoral…

Paul Graham??? Wow, I don't get that from him at all.
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